The State Of Indices, 7/6/2022

 SandP, 16-20 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4121)

*comment: S and P chart is in bearish configuration. The critical support has been broken. Rallies should be sold. The first downside target of $3804 was hit and the bounce off it is in progress. The next two downside targets are $3684 and then $3495. The upside target for the correction rally of $4175 was hit on Thursday. There is more potential for the upside based on the sentiment but this 16-20 sell is sufficient to resume the downside, so we will see. I have opened a small short position to test the market. Tight stop just above the Thursday's high. Will try again if we rally to $4300-4400.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 9 days, -1.46% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 254.39/-1.76% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 254.37/-1.76% or lower; 218-222 to BUY 261.5/+0.99% or higher; current $258.94)
*comment: HUI generated a new 92-96 buy signal, it is xxed, and the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $270ish. That would overcome the downtrend line and buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold ($250ish) or $220 becomes the downside target. If the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which is still possible, the new buy will be a true bull signal. The chart structure for this signal will be quite weak.

Nasdaq, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to BUY 11363.37/-5.79% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12061)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. The upside target for the rebound is $12500 then $13500. Time to short rallies.

Russell, 16-20 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1889)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target ($1710) has been hit the next target is $1534. Short term 16-20 index sold so we might be close to resuming the downtrend. If not the upside target is still $1950. I am looking to start building a short position.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 142 days, +94.74% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.04%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend support is still lower at 2.5-2.6%ish and should be hit during the ongoing correction. The bull market support is around 2% and rising. During the last few sessions, the price rose and there is now a nice setup for a double top in mid-June at around 3.2ish%. If this happens the uptrend should be broken and a correction down to 2.2-2.4% is then probable. The other scenario is the yields just keep rising to new highs. I am guessing 3.5% would inflict some serious pain to the equity markets.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 9 days, -0.16% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 128.0/-3.22% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 128.39/-2.93% or lower; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $133.59)
*comment: 92-96 generated new buy signal, it is xxed, the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $140ish. That would buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold or $110 becomes the downside target. If the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which is still possible, the new buy will be a true bull signal. The chart structure for this signal will be quite weak.

ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 21 days, -7.31% (also, 16-20 to SELL 19.01/+2.7% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.51)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. There is a convergence of the SKI indices in mid-June that could be a target for a possible bounce ($21ish) but it looks increasingly unlikely.

Bitcoin, 16-20 crossed to SEL (also, 16-20 to BUY 29431.76/-6.4% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $31443
*comment: After the crash of the last few weeks the price is still above the uptrend line that started in March 2020 at about 5K. The trendline support at 28K was breached but quickly recovered. If this cannot hold the next downside target is 19Kish. A more probable immediate scenario is a rally back to $36K-38K to test the breakdown.

COPX Copper miners, 92-96 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on BUY; current $41.25)
*comment: COPX bought back the 92-96 index for a new bull market signal. The buy has happened above the long term support (going back to 2021) but it is paired with a 16-20 sell signal so it might mark the short term high. Let's see if it can hold. To sustain the signal price needs to rally till August to be above $47. An immediate fall back below $38 will signal weakness and the possibility to break the recent low. A crash down to $30 and lower is then probable.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 10 days, -0.09% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 31.68/-1.68% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $32.22)
*comment: The 92-96 bought back but it is xxed and the SKI structure is not impressive for the bull case. If the 218-222 can buy back and hold, the picture will change. So far 218-222 has behaved as the resistance and the 92-96 buy is being tested again. If it sells and $30 cannot hold then a crash to $ 25 is possible. If on the other hand the $30 level holds and the 92-96 buys back this buy will be a true bull buy. The SKI structure of such a buy will be mediocre. The price will have to rally for the next two months to sustain the buy.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, last signal 92-96 SELL, 18 days, +6.3% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL>>to BUY 35.7/-11.04% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 42.89/+6.88 or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $40.13)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26 and then $24.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 113 days, +1.69% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $171.82)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration but significant damage has been done. The trend support is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. After the upside target ($175 ) has been hit the price is moving down and the 92-96 index started breaking towards the sell signal. There is a potential for a quick sell/buy to transform the current 92-96 buy signal into a true bull signal. It would be under the resistance line so a rise to above $175 would be required to confirm it. I think that a more probable scenario is sideways/down for a few weeks to $166 for a bottom. The bull market support is at $160ish and shouldn't be breached.

SLV, last signal 92-96 SELL, 19 days, +4.19% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 19.42/-4.66% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.37)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish and it seems that the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long term support but then it will have a lot of resistance to clear before the structure changes to positive. The target for the bounce is $21ish. Technically rallies should be sold.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -0.08% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $117.54)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. Again, after generating the 16-20 sell signal price collapsed the next day. This is bearish behaviour. On the other hand, Thursday's 16-20 true buy might mark a double bottom but the price needs to turn around in the next few days. Considering the chart of the 10y yield and a possible double top forming this scenario is not impossible but for now, I give it a 20% chance. If the 10y generates a double sell signal the chances of a longer correction are becoming better. The long term downside target is still around $111.

TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, -2.0% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 114.68/+0.69% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $113.89)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The last few weeks look like consolidation before the downside move resumes. Short term upside target of $120ish was hit 3 days ago. The setup is building for a potential double bottom around mid-June after which a longer correction should start.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 123 days, +162.35% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $51.08)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45.

URA, 16-20 crossed to SELL (double sell 35-39/92-96 is still in charge) (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to NOT BUY 20.77/-6.57% or lower; 218-222 on BUY; current $22.23)
*comment: The correction of the last rally resulted in a double sell 35-39/92-96. The correction hit the support line at $18.9 and bounced back to buy the 218-222 and soon the 92-96. Considering that the price is also back into the old contracting range I would probably expect one more test of the support before we rise back towards the upper boundary of the range ($27ish). The $18.9 level needs to hold or a $15 test is probable.

USERX, 16-20 crossed to SELL, run pattern in-progress 2U/2D/-1.78%perday, xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 to BUY 10.25/-10.25% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 11.89/+4.39% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $11.39)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market failed. The correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. Touching this area resulted in an instant bounce but it is too early to declare a bottom. Since all other options are now out of the picture the only important thing is that the price holds at this level. If it doesn't the next target area is $8.5ish. Breaking through $11.5ish resistance would help the bullish case but I am not giving it too much chance at present.
NEW: the fall of the last two days put us back below the important $11.5 level. It might be backtesting Thursday's breakout but more probably it means that the breakout was fake. One more test of the $10.28 support seems probable to me. Maybe to coincide with a double buy 16-20/92-96 signal in mid-June.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 201 days, +8.79% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.36)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. The price is now above the long term resistance ($27.19) and is holding. As expected, the price has come back down to test the important $27.19 level from the upside. The support kicked in rather precisely and we had a decent bounce during the last two sessions. I expect one more rally to hit new highs and/or to double top in the second half of June. There is a setup for a double sell 16-20/35-39 to mark that top. If the next two weeks do transpire in this fashion the 27.19 level will be challenged again and if it cannot hold the rally will be over and a longer-term correction will start. The bull market support is around $26 and rising. The resistance preventing a new leg up is $28.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, +0.69% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 6122.1/-2.31% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $6267)
*comment: The 92-96 index sold again. That is a bearish development. The long term support is still holding and is positioned between $5600-5800. Now I think this is the next target in order to try to establish the bottom. Mid-June is a possible timeframe. On the other hand, there is a bullish short-term scenario if the price turns around immediately and buys back the 92-96 for a true bull market. I am giving the bearish scenario an 80% chance. I will be a buyer in the $5600-5800 range. If the opposite happens and the 92-96 buys back quickly I'll stick to my current positions before it is more obvious that the buy can hold.