The State Of Indices, 02/06/2022

 SandP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 25 days, -1.98% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4101)

*comment: S and P chart is in bearish configuration. The 218-222 index support (since 2020) has been broken. That was the critical support. Rallies should be sold from now on. The downside target of $3804 was hit last week and the bounce off it is in progress. The next two downside targets are $3684 and then $3495. The upside target for the correction rally is $4175 (Friday's high was very close to it so we could consider it hit) then $4350. I think that there is more potential for the upside before the bear market resumes.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, -2.63% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $255.87)
*comment: HUI generated a new 92-96 buy signal, it is xxed, and the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $270ish. That would overcome the downtrend line and buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold ($250ish) or $220 becomes the downside target. One more detail, if the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which is quite possible, the new buy will be a true bull signal. The chart structure for this signal will be quite weak.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 32 days, -10.03% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11994)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. The upside target for the rebound is $12500 then $13500. Time to short rallies but the short-term bias is still to the upside.

Russell, last signal 35-39 SELL, 28 days, -4.42% (also, 16-20 to SELL 1950.32/+5.15% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1854)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target ($1710) has been hit the next target is $1534. Short term the price is touching/breaking the 16-20 index, we might be close to resuming the downtrend. If not the upside target is still $1950. I am looking to start building a short position.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 139 days, +87.88% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.93%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend support is still lower at 2.5-2.6%ish and should be hit during the ongoing correction. The bull market support is around 2% and rising. If the short term support kicks in soon (expected) there is a nice setup for a double top in mid-June at around 3-3.2%. NEW: Support did kick in and the setup is developing for the double top.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, -2.02% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $129.79)
*comment: 92-96 generated new buy signal, it is xxed, the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $140ish. That would buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold or $110 becomes the downside target. One more detail, if the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which is quite possible, the new buy will be a true bull signal. The chart structure for this signal will be quite weak.

ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 18 days, -7.61% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.45)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. There is a convergence of the SKI indices in mid-June that could be a target for a possible bounce ($21ish) but it looks increasingly unlikely.

Bitcoin, Last signal 92-96 SELL, 26 days, -16.25% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29732
*comment: After the crash of the last few weeks the price is still above the uptrend line that started in March 2020 at about 5K. The trendline support at 28K was breached but quickly recovered. If this cannot hold the next downside target is 19Kish. A more probable immediate scenario is a rally back to $36K-38K to test the breakdown.

COPX Copper miners, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 38.68/-2.13% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $39.52)
*comment: COPX regained the $38 level and bought back the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. The price has been gyrating around this most critical level since the May 2021 top. The current SKI structure does not promise that the signals will last but if the price can get above $41 and stay there for a while then this would change. An immediate fall back below $38 will signal weakness and the possibility to break the recent low. A crash down to $30 and lower is then probable. This chart is worth watching in regards to the potential S and P 500 breakdown. NEW: 92-96 index sold as expected. A dive down below $38 would suggest a resumption of the bear market. Rebuying the 92-96 will trigger a bull market but the structure is not great so I wouldn't be too excited about it until the price is able to hit $47 again.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 7 days, -0.84% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.98)
*comment: The 92-96 bought back but it is xxed and the SKI structure is not impressive for the bull case. If the 218-222 can buy back and hold, the picture will change. Short term I think that is where the price is going but in the next few weeks, I expect the 92-96 to be challenged again. If I am wrong and the 92-96 sells quickly then $30 support is in jeopardy implying a probable crash down to $25ish. This support ($25) is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed if the bull market will persist. NEW: One more detail, if the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which is quite possible, the new buy will be a true bull signal. The chart structure for this signal will be quite weak.

GDXJ, last signal 92-96 SELL, 15 days, +4.87% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $39.59)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26 and then $24.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 110 days, +1.93% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $172.23)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration but some significant damage has been done. The trend support is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. If the fall resumes the target is in the $155-160 range. The target for the bounce is $175ish.

SLV, last signal 92-96 SELL, 16 days, +2.97% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.13)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish and it seems that the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long term support but then it will have a lot of resistance to clear before the structure changes to positive. The target for the bounce is $21ish. Technically rallies should be sold.

TIP, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to SELL 118.18/+0.93% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $117.09)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. Again, after generating the 16-20 sell signal price collapsed the next day. This is bearish behaviour. On the other hand, today's 16-20 true buy might mark a double bottom but the price needs to turn around in the next few days. Considering the chart of the 10y yield and a possible double top forming this scenario is not impossible but for now, I give it a 20% chance. If the 10y generates a double sell signal the chances of a longer correction are becoming better. The long term downside target is still around $111.

TLT, 16-20 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $116.12)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The last two weeks look like consolidation before the downside move resumes. Short term upside target of $120ish was hit 2 days ago. The setup is building for a potential double bottom around mid-June after which a longer correction should start.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 120 days, +146.17% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $47.93)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been developing since the top in March 2022. The current breakout level is $46ish, and the support is $38ish. I expect the flag to be broken to the upside signalling the start of a new leg up. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. NEW: The $46 level broke and the price hit the March high at $51. We will see if it can be taken out. If not the picture starts emerging of a long term double top. For now, this is not very probable because the price is still above the support line ($45ish). If this support can be broken the picture will start to change and implicate a possible deep correction to roughly $30.

URA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 24 days, -9.15% (double sell with 92-96) (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $21.54)
*comment: The correction of the last rally resulted in a double sell 35-39/92-96. The price is now approaching the very long term support line that goes back to Apr 2020. If this support ($19ish) fails a serious crash is in the cards, probably down to $17 and then $13. The SKI configuration is not bullish anymore but it will take time to fully turn bearish. NEW: The 218-222 bought back. That improves the chances that the recent low will hold but it will need more testing. We are approaching the 92-96 resistance. If it can be broken then the chances of a longer-lasting bottom increase but I think the odds are not favouring this scenario.

USERX, last signal 92-96 SELL, 15 days, +3.72%, run pattern in-progress 1D/1U/+0.45%perday, xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL, current $11.16)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market failed. The correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. Touching this area resulted in an instant bounce but it is too early to declare a bottom. Since all other options are now out of the picture the only important thing is that the price holds at this level. If it doesn't the next target area is $8.5ish. Breaking through $11.5ish resistance would help the bullish case but I am not giving it too much chance at present. I closed trading positions that I bought when 10.28 was hit.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 198 days, +9.03% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.42)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. The price is now above the long term resistance ($27.19) and is holding. As expected, the price has come back down to test the important $27.19 level from the upside. The support kicked in rather precisely and we had a decent bounce during the last two sessions. I expect one more rally to hit new highs and/or to double top in the second half of June. There is a setup for a double sell 16-20/35-39 to mark that top. If the next two weeks do transpire in this fashion the 27.19 level will be challenged again and if it cannot hold the rally will be over and a longer-term correction will start. The bull market support is around $26 and rising. The resistance preventing a new leg up is $28.

Australian XGD, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 6466.8/+3.45% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $6251)
*comment: The 92-96 index sold again. That is a bearish development. The long term support is still holding and is positioned between $5600-5800. Now I think this is the next target in order to try to establish the bottom. Mid-June is a possible timeframe. On the other hand, there is a bullish short-term scenario if the price turns around immediately and buys back the 92-96 for a true bull market. I am giving the bearish scenario an 80% chance. I will be a buyer in the $5600-5800 range. If the opposite happens and the 92-96 buys back quickly I'll stick to my current positions before it is more obvious that the buy can hold.