The State Of Indices, 27/6/2022

 SandP 500, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, +4.72% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3911)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3717 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. It has been breached and the meltdown scenario is now in play. The next target is $3495 but before that, a bounce to $3900 would be expected. If it happens I will be adding to my short position again.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 7 days, -1.14% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $238.03)
*comment: HUI generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals that didn't generate any support. The recent low ($236) was breached today so $220 is the next target.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days,
+7.2% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11607)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. Some bounce is funally happening, probably to 16-20 sell first ($12300ish). Then we will see.

Russell 2000, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, +2.0% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1765)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534. A short-term bounce is in progress, probably to 16-20 sell around $1800-1850ish

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 155 days, +100.32% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.12%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%. The double sell scenario that I described before seems improbable now but is still possible. The support is around 3%. I expect some short-term consolidation/retracement.
NEW: A nice double top pattern is starting to emerge. The yield is now close to 3% support. The 35-39 needs to sell for the double top to start looking real.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 7 days, -2.1% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $119.34)
*comment: XAU generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom but this time it was just a pause. The recent low ($119) didn't hold so sub $105-110 becomes an immediate target with the potential to go sub $100.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, -6.99% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $15.7)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. Last week's drop broke the support and the action doesn't look bullish. To improve the chart configuration a rise above $17.5-18 is needed. The next target on the downside is $14.82.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 15 days, -20.72% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $21218
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but it is definitely time for some bounce or consolidation. Back to $24-26 maybe? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.

COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 6 days, -8.11% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.16)
*comment: Simultaneous 92-96 sell and 16-20 buy signals have been generated, usually this is a sign of a short-term bottom. The SKI structure is bearish now, the true bull signal has failed. I expect some short-term strength but nothing more than that. $34 is the next downside target but more importantly $30. If the price can rise over $42 I might consider the long side again.
NEW: The support broke down, and the $30 target has been hit. It will probably mark some kind of the bottom. A bounce to $35-36ish is expected.

GDX,last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, +2.59% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.66)
*comment: The 92-96 sold again. That is bearish. The support ($30) fell today. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25. The bulls need a price rise above $33 again.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, -5.15% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.58)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26. To improve the SKI structure 218-222 index needs to buy back.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 126 days, +0.66% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 170.12/+0.02% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $170.09)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration but significant damage has been done. The trend support is around $166 and is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. If the support doesn't hold the next target is $158-160. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to survive. $175 is the resistance, if broken an explosive move to the upside is probable with the potential to morph into a true bull market. The timeframe for such a signal is the end of August.

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, -3.61% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.51)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long-term support and improve the structure. Time is running out and a significant move is expected in the next few days. The recent 16-20 buy signal should help in establishing a potential low but for now, the odds are to the downside. $19 needs to hold.
NEW: Silver is close to breakdown. The SKI structure is bearish the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 16 days, -1.86% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.44)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The downside target is still around $111 but the recent low ($113) might be sufficient to trigger a bounce.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, -1.68% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $112.56)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish. 16th Jun might have been a short-term low with the upside target of $114.
NEW: $114 target has been hit. If the price can rise over $117 and stay there for a couple of days, the bottom might have been reached.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 136 days, +119.98% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $42.83)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45 and rising. Short-term we might have seen the top. $45 support level is expected to be tested.
NEW: The trendline ($45) has been broken. If the 35-39 sells the long-term double top will be confirmed. This is critical.

URA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 5 days, +3.55% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 to NOT BUY 19.5/-0.15% or lower ; current $19.53)
*comment: Both 92-96 and 218-222 sold at the same time. That is combined with a 16-20 buy so it might mark a low but to me, it looks more like a breakdown. The first target is $16. The bulls need a price rise over $21 and then to hold the level.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, -4.05%; run pattern in-progress 4D/1U/+2.52%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $10.19)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. As expected, this level is now being tested again. It is a do-or-die time for gold stocks. If the $10.28 level cannot hold the next target on the downside is sub $8.5ish. On the upside, $11.25-11.5 is the critical resistance area that needs to be broken for the recent low to start looking like a longer-lasting bottom. I exited my small long position, with no damage.
NEW: There was no follow-through after the breakdown so the bottom is still possible.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 214 days, +10.46% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.78)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. Thursday's 16-20 sell execution might have marked a double top. The confirmation of such a top would be if the next signal was a 35-39 sell. If such a scenario transpires the important 27.19 support will be tested again. A rise over $28.21 would trigger a new leg up. Short-term odds IMO are to the downside.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, -2.4% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $5658)
*comment: The 92-96 buy didn't last for long. $5600-5800 area is being tested again. $5600 absolutely needs to hold or the next target is $4765. I have been stopped out, no damage. Will buy again if $5600 can hold regardless of the SKI.
The long-term support is at $5600-5800. The Wednesday's intraday low was $5665. The importance of this support cannot be overexaggerated. It originates from Dec 2016 low so it has been valid for over 7 years. Adding to the importance of this area is also that the 50% Fibo retracement of the entire bull rally from the Dec 2016 low to the Aug 2020 high sits at $5739, which is right in the middle of this zone and was hit on Wednesday.
NEW: Friday's action was pretty bullish even before the US open. If we open on Monday gap up and then sell off into the close but the closing price is above the Friday's high I will enter again.