The State Of Indices, 22/6/2022

 SandP 500, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days, +0.78% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3764)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3717 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. It has been breached and the meltdown scenario is now in play. The next target is $3495. I have expected a bounce before the slide continues but so far it is not happening. Normally, a bounce to $3900 would be expected, but I am not sure anymore. If it happens I will be adding to my short position again.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 4 days, +1.54% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $244.48)
*comment: HUI generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom so I do expect some support to kick in. To increase the chance that this marked a lasting bottom price needs to rise over $265ish. That would overcome the downtrend line and buy back the 35-39 and 218-222 index. The recent low ($236) absolutely needs to hold or $220 becomes a target.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days,
+2.23% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11069)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. I am not so sure anymore about my short-term bounce expectation. The sentiment is definitely there but so far no traction.

Russell 2000, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, -2.14% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1694)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534. I did expect some short-term bounce but so far it is not happening.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 152 days, +111.99% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.31%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%. The double sell scenario that I described before seems improbable now but is still possible. The support is around 3%. I expect some short-term consolidation/retracement.
NEW: A nice double top pattern is starting to emerge. We will see if it can come to fruition.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 4 days, +0.79% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $122.86)
*comment: XAU generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom so I do expect some support to kick in. To increase the chance that this marked a lasting bottom price needs to rise over $135ish. That would buy back the 35-39 and 218-222 index. The recent low ($119) absolutely needs to hold or sub $100 becomes a probable target.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, -2.9% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16.39)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. Last week's drop broke the support and the action doesn't look bullish. To improve the chart configuration a rise above $17.5-18 is needed.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 10 days, -22.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20820
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but it is definitely time for some bounce or consolidation. Back to $24-26 maybe? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.

COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 3 days, -0.63% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $34.78)
*comment: Simultaneous 92-96 sell and 16-20 buy signals have been generated, usually this is a sign of a short-term bottom. The SKI structure is bearish now, the true bull signal has failed. I expect some short-term strength but nothing more than that. $34 is the next downside target but more importantly $30. If the price can rise over $42 I might consider the long side again.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 20 days, -5.43% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 30.4/-0.33% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.5)
*comment: The 92-96 bought back but it is xxed and the SKI structure is not impressive for the bull case. The picture will change if the 218-222 can buy back and hold. So far 218-222 has behaved as the resistance and the 92-96 buy is being tested again. If it sells and $30 cannot hold then a crash to $25 is possible. If on the other hand, the $30 level can hold the price will have to rally for the next two months to sustain the buy signal.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -2.03% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $36.75)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26 and then $24. A 92-96 buy signal could be generated in a few days, it would be xxed. To improve the SKI structure 218-222 index needs to buy back.
NEW: The $37 support is barely holding. If it breaks sub $30 is the target.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 123 days, +0.98% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $170.63)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration but significant damage has been done. The trend support is around $166 and is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. If the support doesn't hold the next target is $158-160. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to survive. $175 is the resistance, if broken an explosive move to the upside is probable with the potential to morph into a true bull market. The timeframe for such a signal is the end of August.

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -1.28% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.98)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long-term support and improve the structure. Time is running out and a significant move is expected in the next few days. The recent 16-20 buy signal should help in establishing a potential low but for now, the odds are to the downside. $19 needs to hold.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, -2.81% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $114.33)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The double bottom scenario didn't pan out, that was expected. The downside target is still around $111 but the recent low ($113) might be sufficient to trigger a bounce.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, -3.76% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $110.18)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish. Last Wednesday might have been a short-term low with the upside target of $114.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 133 days, +138.78% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $46.49)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45 and rising. Short-term we might have seen the top. $45 support level is expected to be tested.
NEW: As expected the trendline ($45) is being tested. If it cannot hold a long-term double top is going to start emerging. This is critical.

URA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, +2.7% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $19.37)
*comment: Both 92-96 and 218-222 sold at the same time. That is combined with a 16-20 buy so it might mark a low but to me, it looks more like a breakdown. The first target is $16.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 3 days, -0.66%; run pattern in-progress 2U/2D/-0.33%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $10.55)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. As expected, this level is now being tested again. It is a do-or-die time for gold stocks. If the $10.28 level cannot hold the next target on the downside is sub $8.5ish. On the upside, $11.25-11.5 is the critical resistance area that needs to be broken for the recent low to start looking like a longer-lasting bottom. Because of the importance of the $10.28 I am a cautious buyer with very tight stops.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 211 days, +10.74% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.85)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. Thursday's 16-20 sell execution might have marked a double top. The confirmation of such a top would be if the next signal was a 35-39 sell. If such a scenario transpires the important 27.19 support will be tested again. A rise over $28.21 would trigger a new leg up. Short-term odds IMO are to the downside.

Australian XGD, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 5942.7/+1.6% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $5849)
*comment: The 92-96 buy didn't last for long. $5600-5800 area is being tested again. $5600 absolutely needs to hold or the next target is $4765. A sharp turnaround will produce a new true bull 92-96 signal, this time on the path of trades but still with a weak SKI structure. I have been stopped out, no damage. Will buy again if $5600 can hold regardless of the SKI.
The long-term support is at $5600-5800. The Wednesday's intraday low was $5665. The importance of this support cannot be overexaggerated. It originates from Dec 2016 low so it has been valid for over 7 years. Adding to the importance of this area is also that the 50% Fibo retracement of the entire bull rally from the Dec 2016 low to the Aug 2020 high sits at $5739, which is right in the middle of this zone and was hit on Wednesday.