The State Of Indices, 4/6/2022

 SandP, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to BUY 4001.04/-2.62% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4108)

*comment: S and P chart is in bearish configuration. The critical support has been broken. Rallies should be sold from now on. The downside target of $3804 was hit last week and the bounce off it is in progress. The next two downside targets are $3684 and then $3495. The upside target for the correction rally is $4175 (hit on Thu) then $4300-4350. There is more potential for the upside based on the sentiment but this 16-20 sell is sufficient for the top, so we will see. I am opening a small short position to test the market. Tight stop just above the Thursday's high.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 8 days, -0.21% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 to NOT BUY 261.49/-0.29% or lower; current $262.25)
*comment: HUI generated a new 92-96 buy signal, it is xxed, and the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $270ish. That would overcome the downtrend line and buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold ($250ish) or $220 becomes the downside target. One more detail, if the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which is quite possible, the new buy will be a true bull signal. The chart structure for this signal will be quite weak.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 34 days, -9.9% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 11736.73/-2.3% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12012)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. The upside target for the rebound is $12500 then $13500. Time to short rallies.

Russell, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to BUY 1739.05/-7.65% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1883)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target ($1710) has been hit the next target is $1534. Short term 16-20 index sold so we might be close to resuming the downtrend. If not the upside target is still $1950. I am looking to start building a short position.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 141 days, +89.95% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.96%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend support is still lower at 2.5-2.6%ish and should be hit during the ongoing correction. The bull market support is around 2% and rising. The short term support has lifted the yields during the last four sessions and there is now a nice setup for a double top in mid-June at around 3-3.2%. If this happens the uptrend should be broken and a correction down to 2.2-2.4% is then probable.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 8 days, +0.85% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 128.4/-3.89% or lower; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $133.59)
*comment: 92-96 generated new buy signal, it is xxed, the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $140ish. That would buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold or $110 becomes the downside target. One more detail, if the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which is quite possible, the new buy will be a true bull signal. The chart structure for this signal will be quite weak.

ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 20 days, -6.01% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.77)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. There is a convergence of the SKI indices in mid-June that could be a target for a possible bounce ($21ish) but it looks increasingly unlikely.

Bitcoin, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to SELL 30426.72/+2.83% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29588
*comment: After the crash of the last few weeks the price is still above the uptrend line that started in March 2020 at about 5K. The trendline support at 28K was breached but quickly recovered. If this cannot hold the next downside target is 19Kish. A more probable immediate scenario is a rally back to $36K-38K to test the breakdown.

COPX Copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days,
-1.48% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to NOT BUY 40.04/-1.72% or lower; 218-222 on BUY; current $40.74)
*comment: COPX regained the $38 level and bought back the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. The price has been gyrating around this most critical level since the May 2021 top. The current SKI structure does not promise that the signals will last but if the price can get above $41 and stay there for a while then this would change. An immediate fall back below $38 will signal weakness and the possibility to break the recent low. A crash down to $30 and lower is then probable. This chart is worth watching in regards to the potential S and P 500 breakdown. NEW: 92-96 index sold as expected. A dive down below $38 would suggest a resumption of the bear market. Rebuying the 92-96 will trigger a bull market but the structure is not great so I wouldn't be too excited about it until the price is able to hit $47 again.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 9 days, +0.96% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $32.56)
*comment: The 92-96 bought back but it is xxed and the SKI structure is not impressive for the bull case. If the 218-222 can buy back and hold, the picture will change. Short term I think the 218-222 buy is where the price is going but in the next few weeks, I expect the 92-96 to be challenged again. If I am wrong and the 92-96 sells quickly then $30 support is in jeopardy implying a probable crash down to $25ish. This support ($25) is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed if the bull market will persist. NEW: Thursday's surge reduced the possibility of a quick 92-96 sell/buy event that I described on Wed. We are now close to a simultaneous 16-20 sell and 218-222 buy that is more probable to be a top than a breakout. The good news is it increases the chance that the May bottom was the bottom for this cycle.

GDXJ, last signal 92-96 SELL, 17 days, +8.26% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 38.38/-6.09% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $40.87)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26 and then $24.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 112 days, +2.14% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $172.58)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration but significant damage has been done. The trend support is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. If the fall resumes the target is in the $155-160 range. The target for the bounce is $175ish. NEW: We are close to the $175 target. Hitting it will be coinciding with a 16-20 sell and the touch of the downtrend-line from below. That is a probable top. If the price can break through this resistance the ensuing rally could be quite impulsive but I do not expect this to happen.

SLV, last signal 92-96 SELL, 18 days, +3.48% (also, 16-20 to SELL 20.66/+2.13% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.23)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish and it seems that the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long term support but then it will have a lot of resistance to clear before the structure changes to positive. The target for the bounce is $21ish. Technically rallies should be sold.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, +0.58% (also, 16-20 to SELL 118.61/+0.25% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $118.31)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. Again, after generating the 16-20 sell signal price collapsed the next day. This is bearish behaviour. On the other hand, Thursday's 16-20 true buy might mark a double bottom but the price needs to turn around in the next few days. Considering the chart of the 10y yield and a possible double top forming this scenario is not impossible but for now, I give it a 20% chance. If the 10y generates a double sell signal the chances of a longer correction are becoming better. The long term downside target is still around $111.

TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, -0.16% (also, 16-20 to BUY 113.67/-2.03% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $116.03)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The last two weeks look like consolidation before the downside move resumes. Short term upside target of $120ish was hit 2 days ago. The setup is building for a potential double bottom around mid-June after which a longer correction should start.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 122 days, +167.44% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $52.07)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45.

URA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 26 days, -6.62% (double sell with 92-96) (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 20.1/-9.21% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 22.56/+1.9% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $22.14)
*comment: The correction of the last rally resulted in a double sell 35-39/92-96. The price has now approached the very long term support line that goes back to Apr 2020. If this support ($19ish) fails a serious crash is in the cards, probably down to $17 and then $13. The SKI configuration is not bullish anymore but it will take time to fully turn bearish. NEW: The 218-222 bought back. That improves the chances that the recent low will hold but it will need more testing. We are approaching the 92-96 resistance. If the current rally can be sustained for another two days the 92-96 will buy in conjunction with a 16-20 sell. These kinds of patterns normally mark tops.

USERX, last signal 92-96 SELL, 17 days, +6.69%, run pattern in-progress 2U/1D/-2.79%perday, xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 11.01/-4.09% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 11.95/+4.09% or higher; 218-222 on SELL, current $11.48)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market failed. The correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. Touching this area resulted in an instant bounce but it is too early to declare a bottom. Since all other options are now out of the picture the only important thing is that the price holds at this level. If it doesn't the next target area is $8.5ish. Breaking through $11.5ish resistance would help the bullish case but I am not giving it too much chance at present. NEW: Friday's fall put us back at the important $11.5 level. It might be backtesting Thursday's breakout but more probably it is telling us that the breakout was fake.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 200 days, +8.55% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.30)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. The price is now above the long term resistance ($27.19) and is holding. As expected, the price has come back down to test the important $27.19 level from the upside. The support kicked in rather precisely and we had a decent bounce during the last two sessions. I expect one more rally to hit new highs and/or to double top in the second half of June. There is a setup for a double sell 16-20/35-39 to mark that top. If the next two weeks do transpire in this fashion the 27.19 level will be challenged again and if it cannot hold the rally will be over and a longer-term correction will start. The bull market support is around $26 and rising. The resistance preventing a new leg up is $28.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, +2.13% (also, 16-20 to SELL 6427.7/+1.12% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $6356)
*comment: The 92-96 index sold again. That is a bearish development. The long term support is still holding and is positioned between $5600-5800. Now I think this is the next target in order to try to establish the bottom. Mid-June is a possible timeframe. On the other hand, there is a bullish short-term scenario if the price turns around immediately and buys back the 92-96 for a true bull market. I am giving the bearish scenario an 80% chance. I will be a buyer in the $5600-5800 range. If the opposite happens and the 92-96 buys back quickly I'll stick to my current positions before it is more obvious that the buy can hold.