The State Of Indices, 1/7/2022

 SandP 500, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days, +1.34% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3785)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3717 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. It has been breached and the meltdown scenario is now in play. The next target is $3495 but before that, a bounce to $3900 would be expected. If it happens I will be adding to my short position again.
NEW: $3900 has been hit so I added to my shorts. Will add more if it keeps rising.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 11 days, -8.31% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $220.78)
*comment: HUI generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals that didn't generate any support. The recent low ($236) was breached so $220 is the target.
NEW: We are at the target area. If $215-220 cannot hold the next target is $180ish.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days,
+1.85% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11028)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269.

Russell 2000, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, -1.34% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1707)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 159 days, +90.51% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.97%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%. The double sell scenario that I described before is still possible. The support is around 3%.
NEW: The expected retracement is now testing the 3% support level. A nice double top pattern is starting to emerge but the support is still holding. The 35-39 needs to sell for the double top to start looking real.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 11 days, -8.84% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $111.12)
*comment: XAU generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom but this time it was just a pause. The recent low ($119) has been breached. The target on the downside is $100-110.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days,
-13.09% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.67)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. The support has been broken and the action is bearish. The next target on the downside is $14.82.
NEW: The target has been hit but there are no signs of any support yet.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 19 days, -29.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18948
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but it is definitely time for some bounce or consolidation. Back to $24-26 maybe? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.
NEW: The last ten days' action seems like a bearish flag is developing and now breaking down.

COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 10 days, -13.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.38)
*comment: Simultaneous 92-96 sell and 16-20 buy signals have been generated, usually this is a sign of a short-term bottom. The SKI structure is bearish now, the true bull signal has failed. I expect some short-term strength but nothing more than that. $34 is the next downside target but more importantly $30. If the price can rise over $42 I might consider the long side again.
NEW: The support broke down, and the $30 target has been hit. It will probably mark some kind of the bottom. A bounce to $35-36ish is expected.

GDX,last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, -5.29% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.38)
*comment: The 92-96 sold again. That is bearish. The support ($30) fell. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days,
-14.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.0)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 didn't hold, a price collapse is probable down to $26-28.

GLD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, -0.68% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $168.46)
*comment: GLD chart is no more bullish but is still not outright bearish. The uptrend is still holding with the support around $166. If the 218-222 index sells this support will be lost. In that case, the next target is $158-160. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to survive. The resistance has fallen to $170ish and looks pretty firm now. The true bull market setup is lost. Seems to me that $160ish is in the crosshairs (end of July to mid-August?).

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days, -7.91% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.64)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long-term support and improve the structure but it seems improbable. Time is running out and a significant move is expected soon. The recent 16-20 buy signal should help in establishing a potential low but for now, the odds are to the downside. $19 needs to hold.
NEW: Silver is close to breakdown, $19 is taken out. The SKI structure is bearish the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 20 days, -3.16% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $113.91)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. It seems the short-term bounce is over. The downside target is still around $111.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 15 days, +0.34% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $114.87)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish. 16th Jun might have been a short-term low with the upside target of $114.
NEW: $114 target has been hit. If the price can rise over $117 and stay there for a couple of days, the bottom might have been in but my money is on a further slide to try to hit that $100-105 first.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 140 days, +115% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $41.86)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45 and rising. Short-term we might have seen the top. $45 support level is expected to be tested.
NEW: The trendline ($45) has been broken. If the 35-39 sells the long-term double top will be confirmed. This is critical.

URA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 9 days, -1.59% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 to SELL 17.54/-5.5% or lower; current $18.56)
*comment: Both 92-96 and 218-222 sold at the same time. That is combined with a 16-20 buy so it might mark a low but to me, it looks more like a breakdown. The first target is $16. The bulls need a price rise over $21 and then to hold that level.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 10 days, -9.89%; run pattern in-progress 2U/3D/-2.29%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.57)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish and then sub $8.5ish.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 218 days, +11.17% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.96)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. The 16-20 sell execution might have marked a double top. The confirmation of such a top would be if the next signal was a 35-39 sell. If such a scenario transpires the important 27.19 support will be tested again. A rise over $28.21 would trigger a new leg up.
NEW: The double top scenario looks increasingly not likely but is still possible.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 7 days, -14.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4962)
*comment: The 92-96 buy didn't last for long. $5600-5800 critical area of support has been breached. The next target is $4765.
The long-term support is at $5600-5800 and has been violated in a serious manner. The importance of this support cannot be overexaggerated. It originated from Dec 2016 low so it has been valid for over 7 years. Now, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is being recalibrated. The $4765 target is in the crosshairs. I will start buying under $5000 for a short-term bounce.