The State Of Indices, 28/6/2022

 SandP 500, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days, +4.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3900)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3717 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. It has been breached and the meltdown scenario is now in play. The next target is $3495 but before that, a bounce to $3900 would be expected. If it happens I will be adding to my short position again.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 8 days, -0.45% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $239.71)
*comment: HUI generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals that didn't generate any support. The recent low ($236) was breached so $220 is the next target.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days,
+6.43% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11524)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. Some bounce is finally happening, probably to 16-20 sell first ($11900ish). Then we will see.

Russell 2000, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, +2.35% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1771)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534. A short-term bounce is in progress, probably to 16-20 sell around $1800-1850ish

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 156 days, +104.74% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.19%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%. The double sell scenario that I described before seems improbable now but is still possible. The support is around 3%. I expect some short-term consolidation/retracement.
NEW: A nice double top pattern is starting to emerge. The yield is now close to 3% support. The 35-39 needs to sell for the double top to start looking real.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 8 days, -1.35% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $120.25)
*comment: XAU generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom but this time it was just a pause. The recent low ($119) was breached but now recovered. Technically that support is still holding but we need the 35-39 to buy quickly to confirm the low. Otherwise, any weakness is going to turn into a serious breakdown with the potential to go sub $100.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, -7.76% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $15.57)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. Last week's drop broke the support and the action doesn't look bullish. To improve the chart configuration a rise above $17.5-18 is needed but that doesn't seem probable. The next target on the downside is $14.82.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 16 days, -22.16% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20832
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but it is definitely time for some bounce or consolidation. Back to $24-26 maybe? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.
NEW: The last ten days' action seems like a bearish flag is developing. One more leg down to find the low??

COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 7 days, -6.31% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.79)
*comment: Simultaneous 92-96 sell and 16-20 buy signals have been generated, usually this is a sign of a short-term bottom. The SKI structure is bearish now, the true bull signal has failed. I expect some short-term strength but nothing more than that. $34 is the next downside target but more importantly $30. If the price can rise over $42 I might consider the long side again.
NEW: The support broke down, and the $30 target has been hit. It will probably mark some kind of the bottom. A bounce to $35-36ish is expected.

GDX,last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, +1.94% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.47)
*comment: The 92-96 sold again. That is bearish. The support ($30) fell. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25. The bulls need a price rise above $33 again to start having some hope.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, -6.05% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.24)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26. To improve the SKI structure 218-222 index needs to buy back.

GLD, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 174.74/+2.85% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $169.9)
*comment: GLD chart is no more bullish but is still not outright bearish. The uptrend is still holding with the support around $166. If the 218-222 index sells this support will be lost. In that case, the next target is $158-160. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to survive. The resistance has fallen to $170ish and looks pretty firm now. The true bull market setup is lost for now. Seems to me that $160ish is in the crosshairs (end of July to mid-August?).

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, -3.71% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.49)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long-term support and improve the structure. Time is running out and a significant move is expected in the next few days. The recent 16-20 buy signal should help in establishing a potential low but for now, the odds are to the downside. $19 needs to hold.
NEW: Silver is close to breakdown. The SKI structure is bearish the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, -2.57% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $114.51)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The downside target is still around $111 but the recent low ($113) might be sufficient to trigger a bounce.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days, -2.52% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $111.6)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish. 16th Jun might have been a short-term low with the upside target of $114.
NEW: $114 target has been hit. If the price can rise over $117 and stay there for a couple of days, the bottom might have been in but my money is on trying to hit that $100-105 target first.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 137 days, +128.76% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $44.54)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45 and rising. Short-term we might have seen the top. $45 support level is expected to be tested.
NEW: The trendline ($45) has been broken. If the 35-39 sells the long-term double top will be confirmed. This is critical.

URA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, +5.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 19.39/-2.27% or lower ; current $19.84)
*comment: Both 92-96 and 218-222 sold at the same time. That is combined with a 16-20 buy so it might mark a low but to me, it looks more like a breakdown. The first target is $16. The bulls need a price rise over $21 and then to hold the level.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 7 days, -3.39%; run pattern in-progress 4D/2U/+1.6%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $10.26)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. As expected, this level is now being tested again. It is a do-or-die time for gold stocks. If the $10.28 level cannot hold the next target on the downside is sub $8.5ish. On the upside, $11.25-11.5 is the critical resistance area that needs to be broken for the recent low to start looking like a longer-lasting bottom. I exited my small long position, with no damage.
NEW: There was no follow-through after the breakdown so the bottom is still possible but 35-39 needs to buy in order to make the bottom look probable.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 215 days, +10.26% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.73)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. Thursday's 16-20 sell execution might have marked a double top. The confirmation of such a top would be if the next signal was a 35-39 sell. If such a scenario transpires the important 27.19 support will be tested again. A rise over $28.21 would trigger a new leg up. Short-term odds IMO are to the downside.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 4 days, -9.65% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $5238)
*comment: The 92-96 buy didn't last for long. $5600-5800 area is being tested again. $5600 absolutely needs to hold or the next target is $4765. I have been stopped out, no damage.
The long-term support is at $5600-5800 and has been violated yesterday in a serious manner. The importance of this support cannot be overexaggerated. It originated from Dec 2016 low so it has been valid for over 7 years. Now, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is being recalibrated. The $4765 target is in the crosshairs. I will start buying under $5000 for a short-term bounce.