The State Of Indices, 12/6/2022

 SandP 500, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, -5.35% (also, 16-20 to BUY 3900.36/-0.01% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3900)

*comment: S and P chart is in bearish configuration, the critical support has been broken. My short position is working so far. The target is $3717, then $3498. The $3717 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. If breached the secular bull market is over and the chances of an outright crash increases significantly.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 13 days, -0.41% (also, 16-20 SELL breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $261.72)
*comment: HUI generated a new 92-96 buy signal, it is xxed, and the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $270ish. That would overcome the downtrend line and buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold ($250ish) or $220 becomes the downside target. If the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which seems increasingly less probable, the new buy signal would be a true bull signal. The chart structure for such a signal would be quite weak.

Nasdaq, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, -6.86% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11340)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. The upside target for the rebound is $12500 then $13500. Time to short rallies.

Russell, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, -4.74% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1800)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target ($1710) has been hit the next target is $1534. The 16-20 sell signal marked the short-term high and it seems the move towards the next target is underway. $1700 needs to hold.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 146 days, +102.31% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.16%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend support is lower at 2.6-2.7%ish and should be hit during the ongoing correction. The bull market support is around 2.1% and rising. During the last few sessions, the price rose and there is now a nice setup for a double top in mid-June between 3.0-3.2ish%. If this happens the uptrend should be broken and a correction down to 2.2-2.4% is then probable. The other scenario is the yields just keep rising to new highs. I am guessing 3.5% would inflict some serious pain to the equity markets.
NEW: The 16-20 index sold, the double sell/top setup is activated now. If the yields drop back to 2.80ish the double sell will come into effect. The yields rising over 3.16% will possibly trigger a new leg up (we closed at 3.16% on Friday, so watch out!).

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 13days, +0.34% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $132.92)
*comment: 92-96 generated new buy signal, it is xxed, the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $140ish. That would buy back the 218-222 index. The $120 level needs to hold or $110 becomes the downside target. If the 92-96 sells and buys back quickly, which is becoming increasingly improbable, the new buy signal will be a true bull signal. The chart structure for such a signal would be quite weak.

ASA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 2 days, +3.17% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.53)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. There is a convergence of the SKI indices in the next 10 days that could be a target for a possible bounce ($21ish) but it looks increasingly unlikely.

Bitcoin, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, -6.11% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29251
*comment: After the crash of the last few weeks the price is still above the uptrend line that started in March 2020 at about 5K. The trendline support at 28K was breached but quickly recovered. If this cannot hold the downside target is 19Kish. A more probable immediate scenario is a rally back to $36K-38K to test the breakdown.
NEW: Time is running out, a significant move is due in the next few days. Up or down?

COPX copper miners, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, -7.73% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $38.45)
*comment: COPX bought back the 92-96 index for a new bull market signal. The buy has happened above the long-term support (going back to 2021) but it is paired with a 16-20 sell signal so it might mark a high. Let's see if it can hold. To sustain the signal price needs to rally till August to be above $47. An immediate fall back below $38 will signal weakness and the possibility to break the recent low. A crash down to $30 and lower is then probable.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 14 days, +0.99% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $32.57)
*comment: The 92-96 bought back but it is xxed and the SKI structure is not impressive for the bull case. If the 218-222 can buy back and hold, the picture will change. So far 218-222 has behaved as the resistance and the 92-96 buy is being tested again. If it sells and $30 cannot hold then a crash to $ 25 is possible. If on the other hand the $30 level can hold and the 92-96 buys back this buy would be a true bull buy. The SKI structure of such a buy will be mediocre. The price will have to rally for the next two months to sustain the buy.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, -0.52% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 40.82/+1.27% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $40.31)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26 and then $24. A 92-96 buy signal could be generated in a few days, it would be xxed. To improve the SKI structure 218-222 needs to buy back.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 117 days, +3.3% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $174.54)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration but significant damage has been done. The trend support is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. After the upside target ($175 ) has been hit the price is moving down and the 92-96 index started breaking towards the sell signal. There is a potential for a quick sell/buy to transform the current 92-96 buy signal into a true bull signal. It would be under the resistance line so a rise to above $175 would be required to confirm it. I think that a more probable scenario is sideways/down for a few weeks to $166 for a bottom. The bull market support is at $160ish and shouldn't be breached.
NEW: The Friday's rise brought us back to significant $175 resistance. If it can be broken a quick rise to buy 35-39 would be expected ($180-185ish). If this happens the setup will be in place to transform this market into a true bull market by September.

SLV, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, -0.79% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.19)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish and it seems that the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long-term support but then it will have a lot of resistance to clear before the structure changes to positive. The target for the bounce is $21ish. Technically rallies should be sold.
NEW: Time is running out and a significant move is expected in the next few days. If the $21 resistance cannot be overcome the move will be to the downside.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, -0.54% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $116.99)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. Again, after generating the 16-20 sell signal price collapsed the next day. This is bearish behaviour. On the other hand, Thursday's 16-20 true buy might mark a double bottom but the price needs to turn around in the next few days. Considering the chart of the 10y yield and a possible double top forming this scenario is not impossible but for now, I give it a 20% chance. If the 10y generates a double sell signal the chances of a longer correction to the upside are becoming better. The long-term downside target is still around $111.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 dys, -0.62% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $113.77)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The last few weeks look like consolidation before the downside move resumes. Short term upside target of $120ish was hit 3 days ago. The setup is building for a potential double bottom around mid-June after which a longer correction should start.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 127 days, +174.22% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $53.39)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45 and rising.

URA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 3 days, -6.6% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $21.95)
*comment: The bounce of the long-term support line resulted in the 218-222 index buying back and now the 92-96 index too. Considering that the price is also back into the old contracting range I would expect one more test of the support before we rise back towards the upper boundary of the range ($27ish). The $18.9 level needs to hold or a test of $15 is probable.

USERX, 92-96 SELL executed today; run pattern in-progress 2D/1U/+2.72%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to NOT BUY 11.03/-2.46% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $11.31)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. I expect this low now to be tested again. The price needs to stay above this level or $8.5ish becomes the new target. Breaking through $11.5ish resistance would help the bullish case but for now, it doesn't seem probable. If it happens anyway I think that a further rise to a new 218-222 buy becomes probable and then a new bull market by the end of August.
NEW: The sharp reversal on Friday wasn't enough to break through the 11.5 resistance but it again looks viable. If managed, a true bull 92-96 signal will be generated. The 218-222 index buy signal then becomes the first target ($12.5ish). I will be convinced that the gold stocks potential rally has legs when I see gold stocks decouple from the falling S and P 500 for more than one day. Not there yet.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 205 days, +10.66% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.83)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. The price is now above the long-term resistance ($27.19) and is holding. As expected, the price has come back down to test the important $27.19 level from the above. The support kicked in rather precisely and we had a decent bounce during the last few sessions. I expect one more rally to hit new highs and/or to double top in the second half of June. There is a setup for a double sell 16-20/35-39 to mark that top. If the next two weeks do transpire in this fashion the 27.19 level will be challenged again and if it cannot hold the rally will be over and a longer-term correction will start. The bull market support is around $26 and rising. The resistance preventing a new leg up is $28.

Australian XGD, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, -4.19% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 6169.4/+3.07% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $5985)
*comment: The 92-96 index sold again. That is a bearish development. The long-term support is still holding and is positioned between $5600-5800. Now I think this is the next target in order to try to establish the bottom. Mid-June is a possible timeframe. On the other hand, there is a bullish short-term scenario if the price turns around immediately and buys back the 92-96 for a true bull market. I am giving the bearish scenario an 80% chance. I will be a buyer in the $5600-5800 range. If the opposite happens and the 92-96 buys back quickly I'll stick to my current positions before it is more obvious that the buy signal can hold.