The State Of Indices, 17/6/2022

 SandP 500, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -1.84% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3666)

*comment: S and P chart is in bearish configuration. The $3717 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. If breached the secular bull market is over and the chances of an outright crash increase significantly. This all-important support and my target for this move ($3717) was hit and so far it is holding. I am taking half my profits. The next target is $3495 but before that, we will more probably have a bounce back to hit/touch 16-20 and 35-39 index ($4000-4100ish).
NEW: No bounce, I was wrong. $3717 has been breached. The meltdown scenario is now in play.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, +1.67% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $244.81)
*comment: HUI generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom so I do expect some support to kick in. To increase the chance that this marked a lasting bottom price needs to rise over $265ish. That would overcome the downtrend line and buy back the 35-39 and 218-222 index. The recent low ($236) absolutely needs to hold or $220 becomes a target. I am buying small here with very tight stops. Target $260.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -1.68% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $10646)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269 but first, a short-term bounce is due.
NEW: No bounce, I was wrong.

Russell 2000, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, -4.7% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1649)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, $1700 needs to hold or the next target is $1534. I expect some short-term bounce.
NEW: No bounce, I was wrong.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 150 days, +111.99% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.31%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields over 3.5%. The double sell scenario that I described before seems improbable now but is still possible. The support is around 3%. I expect some short-term consolidation/retracement.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, +1.16% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $123.32)
*comment: XAU generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom so I do expect some support to kick in. To increase the chance that this marked a lasting bottom price needs to rise over $135ish. That would buy back the 35-39 and 218-222 index. The recent low ($119) absolutely needs to hold or sub $100 becomes a probable target.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, +0.71% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.0)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. Yesterday's drop broke the support. I expect some short-term bounce.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 5 days, -22.53% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20733
*comment: BTC fell 9 days in a row (3.84% per day). I am buying for a bounce back to 28K. Tight stop under today's low.
NEW: I got stopped out.

COPX copper miners, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 BUY executed; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $35.0)
*comment: Simultaneous 92-96 sell and 16-20 buy signals have been generated, usually this is a sign of a short-term bottom. The SKI structure is bearish now, the true bull signal has failed. I expect some short-term strength but nothing more than that. $34 is the next downside target but more importantly $30. If the price can rise over $42 I might consider the long side again.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 18 days, -4.62% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 30.25/-1.66% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.76)
*comment: The 92-96 bought back but it is xxed and the SKI structure is not impressive for the bull case. The picture will change if the 218-222 can buy back and hold. So far 218-222 has behaved as the resistance and the 92-96 buy is being tested again. If it sells and $30 cannot hold then a crash to $ 25 is possible. If on the other hand, the $30 level can hold the price will have to rally for the next two months to sustain the buy signal.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, 16-20 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $37.51)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26 and then $24. A 92-96 buy signal could be generated in a few days, it would be xxed. To improve the SKI structure 218-222 index needs to buy back.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 121 days, +2.2% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 174.14/+0.84% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 to SELL 168.85/-2.22% or lower; current $172.69)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration but significant damage has been done. The trend support is around $166 and is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. If the support doesn't hold the next target is $158-160. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to survive. $175 is the resistance, if broken an explosive move to the upside is probable with the potential to morph into a true bull market. The timeframe is the end of August.

SLV, 16-20 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.24)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long-term support and improve the structure. Time is running out and a significant move is expected in the next few days. The recent 16-20 buy signal should help in establishing a potential low but for now, the odds are to the downside.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, -2.52% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $114.67)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The double bottom scenario didn't pan out, that was expected. The downside target is still around $111 but the recent low ($113) might be enough.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, -2.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $111.72)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish. Last Wednesday might have been a short-term low with the upside target of $114.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 131 days, +159.58% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $50.54)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45 and rising. Short-term we might have seen the top. $45 support level is expected to be tested.

URA, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 crossed to SELL; current $18.99)
*comment: Both 92-96 and 218-222 sold today. That is combined with a 16-20 buy so it might mark a low but to me, it looks more like a breakdown. The first target is $16.

USERX, 16-20 BUY executed today, onpath, xxed; run pattern in-progress 2D/2U/+1.55%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $10.62)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. As expected, this level is now being tested again. It is a do-or-die time for gold stocks. If the $10.28 level cannot hold the next target on the downside is sub $8.5ish. On the upside, $11.25-11.5 is the critical resistance area that needs to be broken for the recent low to start looking like a longer-lasting bottom. Because of the importance of the $10.28 I am a cautious buyer with very tight stops.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 209 days, +10.02% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.67)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. Yesterday's 16-20 sell execution might have marked a double top. The confirmation of such a top would be if the next signal was a 35-39 sell. If such a scenario transpires the important 27.19 support will be tested again. A rise over $28.21 would trigger a new leg up.

Australian XGD, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 2 days, +2.84% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 5739.8/-3.88% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $5971)
*comment: A double buy 16-20/92-96 signal has been completed today. The 16-20 is on the path of trades and both signals are not xxed. This is a powerfull JPOT combination. The structure is not great but at least the stop loss is constantly rising for the next four weeks. The price needs to rise over $6600 quickly for this buy signal to look more promising.
The long-term support is at $5600-5800. The Wednesday's intraday low was $5665. The importance of this support cannot be overexaggerated. It originates from Dec 2016 low so it has been valid for over 7 years. Adding to the importance of this area is also that the 50% Fibo retracement of the entire bull rally from the Dec 2016 low to the Aug 2020 high sits at $5739, which is right in the middle of this zone and was hit on Wednesday. I bought a small position on Thursday with very tight stops. If $5600-5800 support cannot hold the next target is probably $4765.