The State Of Indices, 24/6/2022

SandP 500, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, +1.61% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3795)
*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3717 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. It has been breached and the meltdown scenario is now in play. The next target is $3495 but before that, a bounce to $3900 would be expected. If it happens I will be adding to my short position again.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, -3.78% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $231.68)
*comment: HUI generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals that didn't generate any support. The recent low ($236) was breached today so $220 is the next target.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days,
+3.73% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11232)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. I am not so sure anymore about my short-term bounce expectation. The sentiment is definitely there but so far no serious traction.

Russell 2000, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, -1.12% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1711)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534. I did expect some short-term bounce but so far it is very weak.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 154 days, +96.67% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.07%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%. The double sell scenario that I described before seems improbable now but is still possible. The support is around 3%. I expect some short-term consolidation/retracement.
NEW: A nice double top pattern is starting to emerge. The yield is now close to 3% support. The 35-39 needs to sell for the double top to start looking real.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 6 days, -5% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $115.8)
*comment: XAU generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom but this time it was just a pause. The recent low ($119) didn't hold so sub $105-110 becomes an immediate target with the potential to go sub $100.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, -9.54% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $15.27)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. Last week's drop broke the support and the action doesn't look bullish. To improve the chart configuration a rise above $17.5-18 is needed. The next target on the downside is $14.82.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 12 days, -22.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20765
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but it is definitely time for some bounce or consolidation. Back to $24-26 maybe? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.

COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 5 days, -11.66% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.92)
*comment: Simultaneous 92-96 sell and 16-20 buy signals have been generated, usually this is a sign of a short-term bottom. The SKI structure is bearish now, the true bull signal has failed. I expect some short-term strength but nothing more than that. $34 is the next downside target but more importantly $30. If the price can rise over $42 I might consider the long side again.
NEW: The support broke down, on the way to $30, as expected.

GDX, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.91)
*comment: The 92-96 sold again. That is bearish. The support ($30) fell today. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25. The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days, -8.56% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $34.3)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26. A 92-96 buy signal could be generated in a few days, it would be xxed. To improve the SKI structure 218-222 index needs to buy back.
NEW: The $37 support fell. The target is sub $30.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 125 days, +0.76% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $170.26)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration but significant damage has been done. The trend support is around $166 and is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. If the support doesn't hold the next target is $158-160. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to survive. $175 is the resistance, if broken an explosive move to the upside is probable with the potential to morph into a true bull market. The timeframe for such a signal is the end of August.

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days, -4.3% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.37)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is bearish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long-term support and improve the structure. Time is running out and a significant move is expected in the next few days. The recent 16-20 buy signal should help in establishing a potential low but for now, the odds are to the downside. $19 needs to hold.
NEW: Silver is close to breaking down. The SKI structure is bearish the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 15 days, -1.96% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.13)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The downside target is still around $111 but the recent low ($113) might be sufficient to trigger a bounce.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days, -0.3% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $114.14)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish. Last Wednesday might have been a short-term low with the upside target of $114.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 135 days, +109.14% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY>> to SELL 47.93/+17.71% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $40.72)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45 and rising. Short-term we might have seen the top. $45 support level is expected to be tested.
NEW: The trendline ($45) has been broken. If the 35-39 sells the long-term double top will be confirmed. This is critical.

URA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 4 days, -3.23% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $18.25)
*comment: Both 92-96 and 218-222 sold at the same time. That is combined with a 16-20 buy so it might mark a low but to me, it looks more like a breakdown. The first target is $16.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 5 days, -6.4%; run pattern in-progress 2U/4D/-1.63%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $9.94)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. As expected, this level is now being tested again. It is a do-or-die time for gold stocks. If the $10.28 level cannot hold the next target on the downside is sub $8.5ish. On the upside, $11.25-11.5 is the critical resistance area that needs to be broken for the recent low to start looking like a longer-lasting bottom. I exited my small long position, with no damage.
NEW: The support gave up. The first target is $9.0-9.25ish.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 213 days, +10.7% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.84)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. Thursday's 16-20 sell execution might have marked a double top. The confirmation of such a top would be if the next signal was a 35-39 sell. If such a scenario transpires the important 27.19 support will be tested again. A rise over $28.21 would trigger a new leg up. Short-term odds IMO are to the downside.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, -2.6% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $5646)
*comment: The 92-96 buy didn't last for long. $5600-5800 area is being tested again. $5600 absolutely needs to hold or the next target is $4765. I have been stopped out, no damage. Will buy again if $5600 can hold regardless of the SKI.
The long-term support is at $5600-5800. The Wednesday's intraday low was $5665. The importance of this support cannot be overexaggerated. It originates from Dec 2016 low so it has been valid for over 7 years. Adding to the importance of this area is also that the 50% Fibo retracement of the entire bull rally from the Dec 2016 low to the Aug 2020 high sits at $5739, which is right in the middle of this zone and was hit on Wednesday.