The State Of Indices

 SandP 500, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 4003/+3.93% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3852)

*Comment/Dec11: S and P's true bull signal ended. That was expected. I am now short this market again (sold Nasdaq instead of SandP because I see the better potential). The initial stop loss is $4120. The acceleration level to watch on the short side is $3860 (36 months MAV).
NEW/Dec16: Moved the stop loss to breakeven.
NEW/Dec18: Today's close is under the $3852 important level. This might start the acceleration to the downside. If not, there is a confluence of future prices at the $4000 level in mid-January. This confluence might be a target for a Santa rally but I doubt it. My bias is to the downside.


HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 28 days, +3.54% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $221.96)
*comment/Nov25: HUI SKI configuration changed to bullish. The long-term support at $180 survived the test. The resistance at $230 needs to be broken for $270 to become a target. A dip down to under $210 is needed into mid-December to transform the structure into a true bull market.
NEW/Dec18: The resistance is still holding. The breaking of the 16-20 index is happening. A potential buy signal might mark the bottom. If not there is still a window of opportunity to quickly sell and buy the 92-96 index (for a true bull) but that now looks like threading a needle and these scenarios are usually less probable and meaningless. Right now the most probable bullish scenario is for the 16-20 buy signal to mark the low and propel the price above the 235ish resistance level for a new leg up. In any case, the $230-235 area is the level to watch. If it can be taken out it is bullish but how bullish depends on the sequence of the SKI signals. If it cannot be taken out then $190 will become the target again.


$NDX - Nasdaq, 16-20 BUY executed today (juxtaposed, bearish) (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to NOT SELL 11406/+1.45% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11243)
*comment/Dec11: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 sold at the resistance. I started a short position ($11608 entry). The initial stop loss at $12110.
NEW/Dec16: Moved the stop loss to breakeven. If the 35-39 index sells I might add to my short position.
NEW/Dec18: Moved the stop loss into profit territory ($11408). Now I will wait to see if the thing can break down. The daily chart looks like there is a lot of space before the technicals become oversold.


$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 92-96 SELL, 5 days,
-3.03% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1763)
*comment/Dec18: The SKI chart structure is bearish. To change to bullish it will now need the price over $1900 but before the 35-39 index generates a sell signal (not expected). If the 35-39 sells down we go (expected).


$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 277 days, +123.21% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.48%)
*comment/Dec15: The 10yy is in a bull market. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like a firm resistance and a part of a triple top. The 3.5% mark was hit as I expected and if my triple top theses is correct the target on the downside is 3.0-3.2%ish. In that case, I expect the 92-96 to sell and end the bull market (probably in the last week of Jan 2023). Short-term the 3.35%-3.4% level is firm support that needs to be broken for the move to continue.


XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 28 days, +4.85% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $117.58)
*comment/Dec08: XAU is now in a bullish configuration. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The 92-96 buy has not marked a short-term top. The stage has been set for a true bull market in mid-Dec but it will now need a steep decline (does not look very probable). We are not in a traditional TA bull market yet (the $123 resistance needs to be cleared for $137 to become a target). This is a very bullish development short-term but it is not great regarding the SKI bull market.
NEW/Dec18: The resistance is still holding. The breaking of the 16-20 index is happening. A potential buy signal might mark the bottom. If not there is still a window of opportunity to quickly sell and buy the 92-96 index (for a true bull) but that now looks like threading a needle and these scenarios are usually less probable and meaningless. Right now the most probable bullish scenario is for the 16-20 buy signal to mark the low and propel the price above the 125ish resistance level for a new leg up. In any case, the $120-125 area is the level to watch. If it can be taken out it is bullish but how bullish depends on the sequence of the SKI signals. If it cannot be taken out then $100 will become the target again.


ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 4 days, -2.4% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.25)
*comment/Dec15: 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals have set the stage for a true bull market signal sometime in late December or early January. Two steps are needed, a 92-96 sell signal first and then a 92-96 buy signal before the 35-39 index sells. The first step is done, the 92-96 sold. This is a very bullish development considering that the ASA index has been the leading indicator for the sector for a while.


Bitcoin, last signal 16-20 SELL, 16 days, -2.13% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16725
*comment/Dec11: BTC is in a bear market configuration. Targets on the downside are $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. To negate the bearish configuration a rise over $20-21K is needed.


COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days, +8.7% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $35.72)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not sure of the long-term implications of the recent SKI signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.


DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 11 days, +0.32% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $104.84)
*comment/Dec15: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is turning bearish. My target at 103 was hit today and should present support. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last defence before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish) which should be used to start shorting.


GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days, +7.28% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $28.6)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now bullish but needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023.
NEW/Dec16: Finally some weakness. Let's see if we can sell the 92-96 and avoid selling the 35-39 before the 92-96 buys back. This is needed for the proper SKI bull market signal.


GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days, +7.21% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.23)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now bullish but needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023.
NEW/Dec16: Finally some weakness. Let's see if we can sell the 92-96 and avoid selling the 35-39 before the 92-96 buys back. This is needed for the proper SKI bull market signal.


GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 26 days, +2.02% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 to BUY 168.87/+1.25% or higher; current $166.79)
*comment/Nov20: The GLD chart structure is turning bullish but it needs more work. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes bought which implies that the bottom is in. The 92-96 buy should mark a short-term top (with a $158-160 target on the downside). An acceleration point would be a break above $168. For now, the 35-39 index is the line between the bull and the bear (the 35-39 buy signal needs to hold until at least the end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023.
NEW/Dec11: GLD price is close to that important $168 level mentioned above. It is time for a correction/consolidation if the market is going to morph into a true bull market. Ideally, the correction wouldn't go under $162 for more than a couple of days. It is a decision time.
NEW/Dec16: The 92-96 started breaking toward a sell signal (needed to clear the path) before a true bull signal takes over. We do not want the price to go under $162 for more than a couple of days otherwise the 35-39 will sell and end the bullish setup.


SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 38 days, +19.65% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL, current $21.37)
*comment/Dec15: The SKI structure changed to bullish. I expect that the 218-222 index buy (executed today) causes short-term correction. Morphing into a SKI true bull market now seems improbable. A correction to buy the 16-20 index seems a good entry point on the long side.


TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 19 days, +0.97% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $107.58)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in a bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.


TLT, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days, +1.28% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.11)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in a bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks). $101 should act as support.


UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 14 days,
-10.09% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY, current 26.2)
*comment/Dec01: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support, and $35 is strong resistance.
NEW/Dec11: We are at significant support and the 218-222 index sold. I take that as a bearish sign. This signal is actionable (short side) but I would wait until two closes under $25 or a new 16-20 sell signal before a 218-222 buy signal.
NEW/Dec15: I was right not to go short last week. The 218-222 sell signal caused a short-term rally. If the 218-222 buys back everything will go back to neutral. Having said that, my statement from the last week stays firm, the 16-20 sell signal before the 218-222 buy signal is a selling point. Another selling point is two consecutive closes under $25.0.


URA (uranium stocks ETF), 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $19.49)
*comment/Dec16: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 sold too for a double sell signal. That seems dangerous. The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.


USERX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 25 days,
+0.1%; run pattern in-progress 2D/1U/+1.16%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to NOT SELL 9.71/+1.04% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.61)
*comment/Nov17: USERX is in a bearish configuration but that is slowly changing. Both 35-39 and 92-96 indexes bought which should be enough to confirm the bottom. To turn this chart really bullish the $10.28 needs to be cleared but I doubt that it will happen quickly. The current 92-96 buy signal should provide resistance and probably lead to a correction. If during the next month the price can stay in the $9.0-10.0 range a true bull market buy signal is probable by the second half of December. If we just keep pushing up and exceed this range ($10.28) without meaningful pause then $11.75 is the target but a true bull market signal will probably be postponed to the second half of 2023. So, the best-case scenario is a consolidation in the $9-10 range until the 92-96 index generates a true buy signal. The condition of the consolidation is that the 35-39 doesn't sell because that would ruin the setup. The current picture aligns well with the dollar and the 10yy signals. There are other encouraging signs too: Platinum (a leading indicator for gold) is already on a true bull signal, Copper broke out, Silver is in the bullish config, etc.
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).
NEW/Dec11: So far, we are keeping nicely inside the bull market required range. Being under $10.12 for another week will penetrate the 92-96 index toward a sell signal. If a larger correction starts it must not sell the 35-39 index yet. A sudden strength would avoid the bull market signal altogether.
NEW/Dec16: It is happening, the 92-96 is breaking towards a sell signal. The timing is perfect. One thing to watch is that the 35-39 index doesn't sell before the 92-96 buys back (if it sells).
One thing on my mind is, what to do if the 35-39 sells but then the 92-96 buys back (as xxed) and takes the path. In this case, I will probably wait until the 35-39 buys back too and go long when the downtrend line is broken (mid-Jan low?).


Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 36 days, +17.55% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 crossed to SELL>>to BUY 5973/+3.0% or higher; current $5799)
*comment/Dec18: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish but needs more work. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am 30% long and looking to buy more on weak days (bought some on Friday). The 218-222 generated a sell signal as expected. This might be bearish at least short-term because in the recent two years this index was acting as resistance. I'd like to see the XGD price around $5400 before I start serious buying. If that doesn't happen I will buy a break above $6000 and follow the momentum but my stops will be tight.