SandP 500, 16-20 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to NOT SELL 3830/+0.24% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3821)
*Comment/Dec11: S and P's true bull signal ended. That was expected. I am now short this market again (sold Nasdaq instead of SandP because I see the better potential). The initial stop loss is $4120. The acceleration level to watch on the short side is $3860 (36 months MAV).NEW/Dec21: Today's close is under the $3852 important level. This might start the acceleration to the downside. If not, there is a confluence of future prices at the $4000 level in mid-January. This confluence might be a target for a Santa rally but I doubt it. My bias is to the downside.
HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 30 days, +6.93% (also, 16-20 to BUY 216.35/-5.62% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $229.23)
*comment/Nov25: HUI SKI configuration changed to bullish. The long-term support at $180 survived the test. The resistance at $230 needs to be broken for $270 to become a target. A dip down to under $210 is needed into mid-December to transform the structure into a true bull market.
NEW/Dec21: The resistance is still holding. The breaking of the 16-20 index is happening. A potential buy signal might mark the bottom. If the buy is generated and it doesn't mark the bottom the 35-39 is probable to sell (not wanted). The opportunity to quickly sell/buy the 92-96 (for a true bull) seems gone now. The $230-235 area is the level to watch, if it can be taken out it is bullish ($270 target). If it cannot be taken out the 35-39 will sell and $190 will become the target again.
$NDX - Nasdaq, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11072)
*comment/Dec11: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 sold at the resistance. I started a short position ($11608 entry). The initial stop loss at $12110.
NEW/Dec16: Moved the stop loss to breakeven. If the 35-39 index sells I might add to my short position.
NEW/Dec18: Moved the stop loss into profit territory ($11408). Now I will wait to see if the thing can break down. The daily chart looks like there is a lot of space before the technicals become oversold.
NEW/Dec21: Moved the stop loss further into profit ($11200).
$RUT - Russell 2000, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1748)
*comment/Dec18: The SKI chart structure is bearish. To change to bullish it will now need the price over $1900 but before the 35-39 index generates a sell signal (not expected). If the 35-39 sells down we go (expected).
NEW/Dec21: 35-39 sold. We are now officially in a bear configuration. Rallies should be sold. To reverse the configuration the price needs to rise above $1900.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 279 days, +136.15% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.68%)
*comment/Dec15: The 10yy is in a bull market. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like a firm resistance and a part of a triple top. The 3.5% mark was hit as I expected and if my triple top theses is correct the target on the downside is 3.0-3.2%ish. In that case, I expect the 92-96 to sell and end the bull market (probably in the last week of Jan 2023). Short-term the 3.35%-3.4% level is firm support that needs to be broken for the move to continue.
NEW/Dec21: As expected, the 3.4% acted as support, and a short-term rally is in progress. The target is 3.9-4.0% area. If 35-39 can buy back (above 4.0%ish) that would be quite bullish and lead to testing the high (not expected).
XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 30 days, +7.56% (also, 16-20 to BUY 113.36/-6.02% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $120.62)
*comment/Dec08: XAU is now in a bullish configuration. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The 92-96 buy has not marked a short-term top. The stage has been set for a true bull market in mid-Dec but it will now need a steep decline (does not look very probable). We are not in a traditional TA bull market yet (the $123 resistance needs to be cleared for $137 to become a target). This is a very bullish development short-term but it is not great regarding the SKI bull market.
NEW/Dec21: The resistance is still holding. The breaking of the 16-20 index is happening. A potential buy signal might mark the bottom. If not there is still a window of opportunity to quickly sell and buy the 92-96 index (for a true bull) but that now looks like threading a needle and these scenarios are usually less probable and meaningless. Right now the most probable bullish scenario is for the 16-20 buy signal to mark the low and propel the price above the 125ish resistance level for a new leg up. In any case, the $120-125 area is the level to watch. If it can be taken out it is bullish but how bullish depends on the sequence of the SKI signals. If it cannot be taken out then $100 will become the target again.
ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, -0.41% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.54)
*comment/Dec15: 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals have set the stage for a true bull market signal sometime in late December or early January. Two steps are needed, a 92-96 sell signal first and then a 92-96 buy signal before the 35-39 index sells. The first step is done, the 92-96 sold. This is a very bullish development considering that the ASA index has been the leading indicator for the sector for a while.
Bitcoin, 16-20 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to BUY 16885/+0.16% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16858
*comment/Dec11: BTC is in a bear market configuration. Targets on the downside are $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. To negate the bearish configuration a rise over $20-21K is needed.
NEW/Dec21: 16-20 bought and tomorrow the 35-39 could buy for a double buy. I might go long, target 21K.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 30 days, +8.89% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $35.78)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not sure of the long-term implications of the recent SKI signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 13 days, -0.44% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $104.05)
*comment/Dec15: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is turning bearish. My target at 103 was hit today and should represent support. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last defence before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish) which should be used to start shorting.
GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 30 days, +7.8% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.74)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now bullish but needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023.
NEW/Dec16: Finally some weakness. Let's see if we can sell the 92-96 and avoid selling the 35-39 before the 92-96 buys back. This is needed for the proper SKI bull market signal.
NEW/Dec21: The 16-20 is behaving as support for now. The window of opportunity is closing for transitioning into a true bull market. Only a few days left.
GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 30 days, +8.49% (also, 16-20 to BUY 33.42/-6.26% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.65)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now bullish but needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023.
NEW/Dec16: Finally some weakness. Let's see if we can sell the 92-96 and avoid selling the 35-39 before the 92-96 buys back. This is needed for the proper SKI bull market signal.
NEW/Dec21: The 16-20 is behaving as support for now. The window of opportunity is closing for transitioning into a true bull market. The EOY is a deadline.
GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days, +3.43% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $169.08)
*comment/Nov20: The GLD chart structure is turning bullish but it needs more work. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes bought which implies that the bottom is in. The 92-96 buy should mark a short-term top (with a $158-160 target on the downside). An acceleration point would be a break above $168. For now, the 35-39 index is the line between the bull and the bear (the 35-39 buy signal needs to hold until at least the end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023.
NEW/Dec11: GLD price is close to that important $168 level mentioned above. It is time for a correction/consolidation if the market is going to morph into a true bull market. Ideally, the correction wouldn't go under $162 for more than a couple of days. It is a decision time.
NEW/Dec16: The 92-96 started breaking toward a sell signal (needed to clear the path) before a true bull signal takes over. We do not want the price to go under $162 for more than a couple of days otherwise the 35-39 will sell and end the bullish setup.
SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 40 days, +24.47% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL, current $22.23)
*comment/Dec21: The SKI structure is bullish. Today's action looks like the continuation of the uptrend. The target is $23.5ish. The short-term support is $21.5.
TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, +0.59% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $107.18)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in a bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.
NEW/Dec21: 16-20 buy signal is approaching. If I was trading TIPs I'd probably buy.
TLT, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days, -2.19% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $103.44)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in a bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks). $101 should act as support.
NEW/Dec21: 16-20 buy signal is approaching. If I was trading TLT I'd probably buy.
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 16 days,
-6.62% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY, current 27.21)
*comment/Dec01: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support, and $35 is strong resistance.
NEW/Dec11: We are at significant support and the 218-222 index sold. I take that as a bearish sign. This signal is actionable (short side) but I would wait until two closes under $25 or a new 16-20 sell signal before a 218-222 buy signal.
NEW/Dec15: I was right not to go short last week. The 218-222 sell signal caused a short-term rally. If the 218-222 buys back everything will go back to neutral. Having said that, my statement from the last week stays firm, the 16-20 sell signal before the 218-222 buy signal is a selling point. Another selling point is two consecutive closes under $25.0.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, -1.08% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $19.28)
*comment/Dec16: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 sold too for a double sell signal. That seems dangerous. The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.
USERX, 92-96 SELL executed today; run pattern in-progress 1D/1U/+3.0%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 to BUY 9.18/-4.47% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $9.61)
*comment/Dec21: USERX is in a bearish configuration but that can change quickly if the 92-96 index buys back. If that happens before the 16-20 buy signal we will get a bullish development identical to the 1993 true bull signal. Accompanied by the 200 MAV breakout and smashing through the trendline it all will look super bullish.
If the 16-20 buys before the 92-96 (without the 35-39 selling) we will get a double buy. Very bullish too but not a true bull market.
If the price drops and sells the 35-39 index it will not be automatically bearish because a turnaround and buying back both 35-39 and 92-96 will constitute a bullish double buy that can be bought for a strong rally but not a bull market.
To turn everything bearish the recent low needs to be exceeded but that is not expected except if the general market goes into a serious crash (not expected).
Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 38 days, +16.94% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $5769)
*comment/Dec21: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am 35% long and looking to buy more on weak days (added some PRU and RED this week). The 218-222 generated a sell signal as expected. This might be bearish at least short-term because in the recent two years this index was acting as resistance. I'd like to see the XGD price around $5400 before I start serious buying. If that doesn't happen I will buy a break above $6000 and follow the momentum but my stops will
No comments:
Post a Comment