The State Of Indices

 

SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 14 days, +2.09% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4076) *Comment/Nov20: S and P generated a true bull signal. The SKI structure of this signal requires a June 2022-style rally to prevent a quick sell signal. The 36-month MAV ($3837) is below the current price so the crash scenario is off the table again. Confirming signals were generated by DXY and 10yy (the dollar has breached its uptrend line as well as 10yy). What I do not like about the SandP 92-96 buy signal is that the traditional TA is not even close to the breakout that the signal is suggesting. The 200-day MAV is above the current price at $4067 and the bear market downtrend line is also above the current price at $4100ish. My best guess is that the S and P rally continues until these levels are reached but then the 92-96 index sells. If this scenario transpires I will go short again (on a 92-96 sell signal). If the rally doesn't end with the 92-96 sell I will just watch. NEW/Dec01: So far the advance is keeping up with the June rally and the 92-96 buy is holding. We are at serious resistance now ($4100-4200) and it will be interesting to see if it can be broken. I am ready to go short if the 92-96 index sells. HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 17 days, +10.81% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $237.56) *comment/Nov25: HUI SKI configuration changed to bullish. The long-term support at $180 survived the test. The resistance at $230 needs to be broken for $270 to become a target. A dip down under $210 is needed into mid-December to transform the structure into a true bull market. NEW/Dec01: Here we are at the resistance ($230-240) that needs to be broken for $270 to become a target. If the rally continues there will be no SKI bull market for a long time. I'd like to see weakness into December (under $210ish). $NDX - Nasdaq, last signal 92-96 SELL, 9 days, +3.12% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $12030) *comment/Nov25: The chart is in a bearish configuration. As expected, the 92-96 sold at the resistance. I started a short position ($11832 entry). Stop loss at $12110. NEW/Dec01: My stop, was hit ($11800). Now I am watching. $RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 24 days, +1.88% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1881) *comment/Nov25: The chart structure is transitioning from bearish to bullish. A bullish 92-96 true buy signal has been generated. The SKI structure of it is not great but is better than the S and P and Nasdaq. To sustain the BUY signal the price needs to advance to $2000 and above by the end of December. $1900 is firm resistance but if it gets broken there will not be much resistance to reaching $2000. If I am going to switch to the long side the Russell 2000 is probably the vehicle to use. Watching for now. NEW/Dec01: The true bull signal is still alive, the rally continues. The volatility of this market is so extreme that I do not feel confident taking a position. $TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 266 days, +126.22% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.53%) *comment/Nov25: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend is weakening, 3.8% didn't hold. The 35-39 index sold, bought back and is about to sell again. I expect that 3.5%ish will be hit in the next 4-5 weeks. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like firm resistance. The chart is starting to look like a triple top but it is too early to say. NEW/Dec01: 35-39 sold (expected). I still expect 3.5% to be hit in the next few weeks. NEW/Dec02: The fall continues, 3.5% is close enough. The next target is at 3.2-3.25%ish. The chart now definitely looks like a triple top. XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 17 days, +10.91% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $124.37) *comment/Nov17: XAU is now in bullish configuration but it is still early days and might need one more test of support. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The 92-96 buy should have marked a short-term top. The stage has been set for a true bull market in mid-Dec. We are not in a traditional TA bull market yet (the $123 resistance needs to be cleared). The 35-39 index needs to hold. NEW/Dec02: So the 92-96 didn't mark the top, the first close above $123 happened today. If it holds then $137 is the target. If after that the correction stops around the same level ($123) then $170 becomes a target. This is a very bullish development short term but it is not great regarding the SKI bull market. I'd prefer a less impulsive rally here but if we consider that the life run pattern marked the exact low maybe we do not need the SKI bull signal. ASA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, +5.97% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking o SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.73) *comment/Nov12: ASA is in a bearish configuration but the 35-39 index finally bought. We need this to continue. A further rise to $15ish will provide a beautiful bullish setup for a bull market in January 2023. NEW/Nov25: The price is slowly approaching the 92-96 buy level. If the 92-96 generates a buy signal then the simple condition for a new bull market is that the 35-39 doesn't sell before the 92-96 sells and buys back. NEW/Dec01: The bull market setup is now finished. If we do not go over $16 or below $12 in the next four weeks the bull market will be triggered. This aligns nicely with the USERX setup. Bitcoin, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to BUY 16617/-2.03% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16962 *comment/Nov12: Finally the bottom broke. The first target is $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. Short term we could see a rally back to test the $18K from below. NEW/Nov17: As expected the $18K breakdown point was tested from below. The next target is $13796 where I might start buying. COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, +11.96% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $36.79) *comment/Nov25: COPX is in a bullish constellation. The 92-96 buy signal together with the 200 MAV has caused a consolidation (as expected). It seems like the bottom is in but I am still not certain about the long-term implications of these signals. A rally to $40-41 appears viable but probably not before the 16-20 index was touched/bought. The support lies around $31 at present. NEW/Dec01: Rally continues. The target is in the $38-40 range. DXY (dollar index), on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, -1.15% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to NOT SELL 106.01/+1.22% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $104.73) *comment/Nov17: The DXY bull is over. Short term I expect a rally but the next 16-20 sell signal should be shorted. It fits with the gold weakness into the year-end and the start of a bull market in mid-December. NEW/Nov25: The 92-96 bought back and sold again which opens a possibility of a new bull 92-96 signal. That is a bit confusing because there is no similar signal generated by the gold or EUR chart. Even the UUP chart doesn't have it so if the 92-96 buys again I will not consider it a bull market. In my opinion, the maximum potential of such a signal would be a rally to $110ish. A more logical scenario (than a new buy) would be an instant drop to $103ish to confirm the breakdown of the trend. Such an outcome would push the gold price up before the bull market signal is generated and postpone the signal probably till the second half of 2023 (quite possible). NEW/Dec01: So, the 92-96 bought back but I stand by my analysis above. I think that, long-term, the bull market is over. Short-term we will see a rally to sell 16-20 or a breakdown to sell the 92-96 index. The first scenario corresponds with gold's weakness into Dec and the possible start of the gold bull market at the beginning of 2023. The second scenario corresponds with the gold's continuing rally that avoids the SKI bull market and then a crash to postpone the bull market till the second part of 2023. Let's see how this plays out. NEW/Dec02: The 92-96 is going to sell soon. The target on the downside is $103ish where some support should be found. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last line of support before the bear market takes over. GDX, on 35-39, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, +12.68% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.04) *comment/Nov17: The chart is now in a bullish config but it needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December). NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment). GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, +12.99% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $37.13) *comment/Nov17: The chart is now in a bullish config but it needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December). NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment). GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 15 days, +2.67% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $167.84) *comment/Nov20: The GLD chart structure is turning bullish but it needs more work. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes bought which implies that the bottom is in. The 92-96 buy should mark a short-term top (with a $158-160 target on the downside). An acceleration point would be a break above $168. For now, the 35-39 index is the line between the bull and the bear (the 35-39 buy signal needs to hold until at least mid-December). NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment). NEW/Dec02: GLD price is close to that important $168 level mentioned above. It is time for correction if the market is going to morph into a true bull market. The momentum is to the upside and continuing rally but we will see. The next two weeks are critical. SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 27 days, +17.47% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.98) *comment/Nov12: The SKI structure changed to bullish. This 92-96 buy signal should provide some resistance and short-term correction (target $18.5-19.5). Weakness should be bought from now on. $20.5 is still important resistance to be broken for acceleration. NEW/Dec01: Since my last post, the correction took the SLV price down to $19.02 (in the expected range). The resistance is still holding ($20.5ish). The SKI bull market needs the price to fall below $19 in the next two weeks. At the moment that looks like threading a needle hence not very probable. NEW/Dec02: The price blasted through the $21.5 resistance. If the advance doesn't stop immediately it appears that the $24-25 range is the target. The probability of this market transforming into a SKI bull market is now low but still possible. TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, +2.65% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $109.37) *comment/Nov03: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. We spent a month in the $105-107 range. Finally, the 16-20 index produced a SELL signal. This should mark a new leg up or down. The SKI structure favours a down move. NEW/Nov05: Still in that $105-107 range but now at the lower side. This range is now more important than SKI signals. NEW/Nov12: Still flip-flopping inside the range but given the action of the TLT we might finally break out to the upside. We'll see. NEW/Nov20: 35-39 bought but the price fell back into the $105-107 range. Same old, same old. Waiting. NEW/Nov25: Pressure is to the upside. The price closed above the $107 level for the second day in a row. Let's see if this can continue. NEW/Dec01: Finally it seems like the direction is changing. $110 is the next target. TLT, 35-39 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $105.76) *comment/Nov03: TLT is in a bearish configuration. $90 is the target. If the acceleration continues it all looks like the financial system is falling apart. This chart is why I do not trust the equity market rally. Until the bond market stabilizes the risks are too high. NEW/Nov12: The short-term trend broke to the upside but we need a 16-20 sell signal to confirm the action. Then a 35-39 buy signal to signal a more severe correction. NEW/Nov17: 16-20 sold as expected but more importantly the 35-39 is breaking to buy. The tide is turning. NEW/Dec01: The 35-39 bought, the bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (could take weeks). This 35-39 buy could be a short-term top. UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, +5.73% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $30.81) *comment/Dec01: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support, and $35 is firm resistance. URA (uranium stocks ETF), on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, +3.66% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.94) *comment/Nov03: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The signal structure is pretty sound but the buy happened below the classical TA resistance ($22) so it is not trustable until this level is exceeded. USERX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days, +3.75%; run pattern in-progress 2D/3U/+2.76%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.96) *comment/Nov17: USERX is in a bearish configuration but that is slowly changing. Both 35-39 and 92-96 bought which should be enough to confirm the bottom. To turn this chart really bullish the $10.28 needs to be cleared but I doubt that it will happen quickly. The current 92-96 buy signal should provide resistance and probably lead to a correction. If during the next month the price can stay in the $9.0-10.0 range a true bull market buy signal is probable by the second half of December. If we just keep pushing up and exceed this range ($10.28) without meaningful pause then $11.75 is the target but a true bull market signal will probably be postponed to the second half of 2023. So, the best-case scenario is a consolidation in the $9-10 range until the 92-96 index generates a true buy signal. The condition of the consolidation is that the 35-39 doesn't sell because that would ruin the setup. The current picture aligns well with the dollar and the 10yy signals. There are other encouraging signs too: Platinum (a leading indicator for gold) is already on a true bull signal, Copper broke out, Silver is in the bullish config, etc. NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment). NEW/Dec01: So far we are keeping inside the required range nicely. Being under $10.12 in 14 trading days is the requirement. Also, not selling the 35-39 index. Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 25 days, +20.82% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $5960) *comment/Nov17: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish but needs more work. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am down to 25% long and looking to buy more on weak days.