The State Of Indices

 SandP 500, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 3993/+1.5% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $3934)

*Comment/Nov20: S and P's true bull signal ended. That was expected. I am now short this market again (sold Nasdaq instead of SandP because I see the better potential). The initial stop loss is $4120. The level to watch on the short side is $3860 (36 months MAV).


HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 23 days, +6.2% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $227.68)
*comment/Nov25: HUI SKI configuration changed to bullish. The long-term support at $180 survived the test. The resistance at $230 needs to be broken for $270 to become a target. A dip down to under $210 is needed into mid-December to transform the structure into a true bull market.
NEW/Dec08: The resistance is still holding. The SKI bull market doesn't appear probable anymore but the setup is still bullish and the break out of 230ish will target $270. For the next move to start, a touch/brake of the 16-20 index is probably needed (down to $210ish).


$NDX - Nasdaq, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11563)
*comment/Dec11: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 sold at the resistance. I started a short position ($11608 entry). The initial stop loss at $12110.


$RUT - Russell 2000, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1796)
*comment/Dec11: The chart structure is back to bearish. The current setup still can turn bullish quickly (92-96 buy) but the 35-39 index needs to stay on the buy signal. If the 35-39 sells down we go.


$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 272 days, +128.65% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.57%)
*comment/Nov25: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend is weakening, 3.8% didn't hold. The 35-39 index sold, bought back and is about to sell again. I expect that 3.5%ish will be hit in the next 4-5 weeks. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like firm resistance. The chart is starting to look like a triple top but it is too early to say.
NEW/Dec01: 35-39 sold (expected). I still expect 3.5% to be hit in the next few weeks.
NEW/Dec02: The fall continues, the target at 3.5% was hit. The next target is at 3.2-3.25%ish. The chart now definitely looks like a triple top. If that is true I expect a 92-96 sell signal in the next 4-6 weeks (end of the bull market).


XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 23 days, +6.92% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $119.9)
*comment/Dec08: XAU is now in bullish configuration. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The 92-96 buy has not marked a short-term top. The stage has been set for a true bull market in mid-Dec but it will now need a steep decline (does not look very probable). We are not in a traditional TA bull market yet (the $123 resistance needs to be cleared for $137 to become a target). This is a very bullish development short-term but it is not great regarding the SKI bull market.


ASA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 19 days, +1.73% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to NOT SELL 14.79/+4.6% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.14)
*comment/Dec11: 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals have set the stage for a true bull market signal sometime in late December or early January. Two steps are needed, a 92-96 sell signal first and then a 92-96 buy signal before the 35-39 index sells. The first step is almost done, I expect the 92-96 sell signal to happen on Monday. This is a very bullish development considering that the ASA index has been the leading indicator for the sector for a while.


Bitcoin, last signal 16-20 SELL, 9 days, +0.5% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17173
*comment/Dec11: BTC is in a bear market configuration. Targets on the downside are $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. To negate the bearish configuration a rise over $20K is needed.


COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, +11.23% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $36.55)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not certain of the long-term implications of the recent signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.


DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, +0.29% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $104.81)
*comment/Nov17: The DXY bull is over. Short term I expect a rally but the next 16-20 sell signal should be shorted. It fits with the gold weakness into the year-end and the start of a bull market in mid-December.
NEW/Nov25: The 92-96 bought back and sold again which opens a possibility of a new bull 92-96 signal. That is a bit confusing because there is no similar signal generated by the gold or EUR chart. Even the UUP chart doesn't have it so if the 92-96 buys again I will not consider it a bull market. In my opinion, the maximum potential of such a signal would be a rally to $110ish. A more logical scenario (than a new buy) would be an instant drop to $103ish to confirm the breakdown of the trend. Such an outcome would push the gold price up before the bull market signal is generated and postpone the signal probably till the second half of 2023 (quite possible).
NEW/Dec01: So, the 92-96 bought back but I stand by my analysis above. I think that long term, the bull market is over. Short-term we will see a rally to sell 16-20 or a breakdown to sell the 92-96 index. The first scenario corresponds with gold's weakness into Dec and the possible start of the gold bull market at the beginning of 2023. The second scenario corresponds with the gold's continuing rally that avoids the SKI bull market and then a crash to postpone the bull market till the second part of 2023. Let's see how this plays out.
NEW/Dec03: The 92-96 sold, as expected. The target on the downside is $103ish where some support should be found. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last line of support before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce from there to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish).


GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, +9.04% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.07)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now bullish but needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).


GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, +8.64% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $35.7)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now bullish but needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).


GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, +2.19% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $167.06)
*comment/Nov20: The GLD chart structure is turning bullish but it needs more work. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes bought which implies that the bottom is in. The 92-96 buy should mark a short-term top (with a $158-160 target on the downside). An acceleration point would be a break above $168. For now, the 35-39 index is the line between the bull and the bear (the 35-39 buy signal needs to hold until at least mid-December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).
NEW/Dec11: GLD price is close to that important $168 level mentioned above. It is time for a correction/consolidation if the market is going to morph into a true bull market. Ideally, the correction wouldn't go under $162 for more than a couple of days. It is a decision time.


SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 33 days, +20.72% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $21.56)
*comment/Dec11: The SKI structure changed to bullish. I expect that the 218-222 index shows some resistance. Morphing into a true bull market now seems improbable. A correction into a 16-20 buy signal should be buyable.


TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days, +1.76% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $108.43)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in a bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.


TLT, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, +0.54% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.13)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in a bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks).


UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 9 days,
-14.17% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 SELL executed today, current 25.01)
*comment/Dec01: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support, and $35 is firm resistance.
NEW/Dec11: We are at the very important support and the 218-222 index sold. I take that as a bearish sign. This signal is actionable (short side) but I would wait until two closes under $25 or a new 16-20 sell signal before a 218-222 buy signal.


URA (uranium stocks ETF), 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 19.92/+1.63% or higher; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $19.6)
*comment/Dec11: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 is about to sell too. That seems dangerous (double sell). The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.


USERX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 20 days,
+1.67%; run pattern in-progress 2U/1D/-1.01%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.76)
*comment/Nov17: USERX is in a bearish configuration but that is slowly changing. Both 35-39 and 92-96 bought which should be enough to confirm the bottom. To turn this chart really bullish the $10.28 needs to be cleared but I doubt that it will happen quickly. The current 92-96 buy signal should provide resistance and probably lead to a correction. If during the next month the price can stay in the $9.0-10.0 range a true bull market buy signal is probable by the second half of December. If we just keep pushing up and exceed this range ($10.28) without meaningful pause then $11.75 is the target but a true bull market signal will probably be postponed to the second half of 2023. So, the best-case scenario is a consolidation in the $9-10 range until the 92-96 index generates a true buy signal. The condition of the consolidation is that the 35-39 doesn't sell because that would ruin the setup. The current picture aligns well with the dollar and the 10yy signals. There are other encouraging signs too: Platinum (a leading indicator for gold) is already on a true bull signal, Copper broke out, Silver is in the bullish config, etc.
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).
NEW/Dec11: So far, we are keeping nicely inside the bull market required range. Being under $10.12 for another week will penetrate the 92-96 index toward a sell signal. If a larger correction starts it must not sell the 35-39 index yet. A sudden strength would avoid the bull market signal altogether.


Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 31 days, +23.17% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to NOT BUY 5739/-5.55% or lower; current $6076)
*comment/Dec11: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish but needs more work. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am down to 25% long and looking to buy more on weak days but so far there have not been many. The 218-222 started breaking towards a buy but it will probably be short-lived. If the 35-39 bull keeps propelling the price $6800 is the target (wouldn't exclude $7700).