SandP 500, 16-20 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $3995)
*Comment/Dec11: S and P's true bull signal ended. That was expected. I am now short this market again (sold Nasdaq instead of SandP because I see the better potential). The initial stop loss is $4120. The acceleration level to watch on the short side is $3860 (36 months MAV).HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 26 days, +8.06% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $231.66)
*comment/Nov25: HUI SKI configuration changed to bullish. The long-term support at $180 survived the test. The resistance at $230 needs to be broken for $270 to become a target. A dip down to under $210 is needed into mid-December to transform the structure into a true bull market.
NEW/Dec11: The resistance is still holding. The SKI bull market doesn't appear probable anymore but the setup is still bullish and the break out of 235ish will target $270. For the next move to start, a touch/brake of the 16-20 index is probably needed (down to $210ish or spending more time going sideways).
$NDX - Nasdaq, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to BUY 11675/-0.55% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11740)
*comment/Dec11: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 sold at the resistance. I started a short position ($11608 entry). The initial stop loss at $12110.
$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, +0.1% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1820)
*comment/Dec11: The chart structure is back to bearish. The current setup still can turn bullish quickly (92-96 buy) but the 35-39 index needs to stay on the buy signal. If the 35-39 sells down we go.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 275 days, +124.55% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.5%)
*comment/Dec15: The 10yy is in a bull market. The recent top around 4.2% now looks like a firm resistance and a part of a triple top. The 3.5% mark was hit as I expected and if my triple top theses is correct the target on the downside is 3.0-3.2%ish. In that case, I expect the 92-96 to sell and end the bull market (probably in the last week of Jan 2023). Short-term the 3.4% level is firm support that needs to be broken for the move to continue.
XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 26 days, +8.81% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $122.02)
*comment/Dec08: XAU is now in bullish configuration. The life run low has marked the exact bottom. The 92-96 buy has not marked a short-term top. The stage has been set for a true bull market in mid-Dec but it will now need a steep decline (does not look very probable). We are not in a traditional TA bull market yet (the $123 resistance needs to be cleared for $137 to become a target). This is a very bullish development short-term but it is not great regarding the SKI bull market.
ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, +0.14% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.62)
*comment/Dec15: 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals have set the stage for a true bull market signal sometime in late December or early January. Two steps are needed, a 92-96 sell signal first and then a 92-96 buy signal before the 35-39 index sells. The first step is done, the 92-96 sold. This is a very bullish development considering that the ASA index has been the leading indicator for the sector for a while.
Bitcoin, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, +4.48% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17854
*comment/Dec11: BTC is in a bear market configuration. Targets on the downside are $13796 then $12150 then $9475 then $7500. To negate the bearish configuration a rise over $20K is needed.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 26 days, +12.6% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $37.0)
*comment/Dec11: COPX is in a bullish constellation. I am still not certain of the long-term implications of the recent signals. If a recession is looming and the SandP is bearish I do not know how the COPX can be bullish. Let's see what happens.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 92-96 SELL, 9 days, -0.85% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $103.62)
*comment/Dec15: The longest DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is turning bearish. My target at 103 was hit today and should present support. This support emanates from the bottom of May 2021 and is the last defence before the bear market takes over. I expect a bounce to sell the 16-20 (rise to $106ish) which should be used to start shorting.
GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 26 days, +11.14% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $29.63)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now bullish but needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).
GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 26 days, +10.01% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $36.15)
*comment/Nov17: The chart is now bullish but needs more work to strengthen the structure. The stage has been set for a true bull market. It requires weakness into mid-December to generate bullish signals. To prevent a bearish outcome the 35-39 shouldn't sell as long as it is under the 92-96 index (end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).
GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 24 days, +2.83% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to BUY 168.61/+0.3% or higher; current $168.1)
*comment/Nov20: The GLD chart structure is turning bullish but it needs more work. The 35-39 and the 92-96 indexes bought which implies that the bottom is in. The 92-96 buy should mark a short-term top (with a $158-160 target on the downside). An acceleration point would be a break above $168. For now, the 35-39 index is the line between the bull and the bear (the 35-39 buy signal needs to hold until at least the end of December).
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).
NEW/Dec11: GLD price is close to that important $168 level mentioned above. It is time for a correction/consolidation if the market is going to morph into a true bull market. Ideally, the correction wouldn't go under $162 for more than a couple of days. It is a decision time.
SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 36 days, +23.12% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 BUY executed today; current $21.99)
*comment/Dec15: The SKI structure changed to bullish. I expect that the 218-222 index buy (executed today) causes short-term correction. Morphing into a true bull market now seems improbable. A correction into a 16-20 buy signal is buyable.
TIP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, +1.82% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $108.49)
*comment/Dec11: TIPs are in a bearish configuration but the tide is turning. I think that $114 is the target on the upside, $105 should act as support.
TLT, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days, +2.27% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $108.16)
*comment/Dec11: TLT is in a bearish configuration but the tide is turning. The bottom might be in but we will not be sure before the 92-96 buys (which could take weeks).
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days,
-3.02% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY, current 28.26)
*comment/Dec01: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. I have no short-term expectations, it can go either way. $25 is firm support, and $35 is firm resistance.
NEW/Dec11: We are at the very important support and the 218-222 index sold. I take that as a bearish sign. This signal is actionable (short side) but I would wait until two closes under $25 or a new 16-20 sell signal before a 218-222 buy signal.
NEW/Dec15: I was right not to go short last week. The 218-222 sell signal caused a short-term rally. If the 218-222 buys back everything will go back to neutral. Having said that, my statement from the last week stays firm, 16-20 sell signal before the 218-222 buy signal is a selling point. Another selling point is two consecutive closes under $25.0
URA (uranium stocks ETF), 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $19.76)
*comment/Dec15: I was right not trusting the 92-96 true buy. It has sold and the 35-39 sold too for a double sell signal. That seems dangerous. Today the 35-39 bought back but it is an xxed buy and very probable to sell again soon. The potential for a crash is significant (to $13ish) but before that $18 is an important support.
USERX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days,
+2.6%; run pattern in-progress 1U/1D/-0.71%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.85)
*comment/Nov17: USERX is in a bearish configuration but that is slowly changing. Both 35-39 and 92-96 indexes bought which should be enough to confirm the bottom. To turn this chart really bullish the $10.28 needs to be cleared but I doubt that it will happen quickly. The current 92-96 buy signal should provide resistance and probably lead to a correction. If during the next month the price can stay in the $9.0-10.0 range a true bull market buy signal is probable by the second half of December. If we just keep pushing up and exceed this range ($10.28) without meaningful pause then $11.75 is the target but a true bull market signal will probably be postponed to the second half of 2023. So, the best-case scenario is a consolidation in the $9-10 range until the 92-96 index generates a true buy signal. The condition of the consolidation is that the 35-39 doesn't sell because that would ruin the setup. The current picture aligns well with the dollar and the 10yy signals. There are other encouraging signs too: Platinum (a leading indicator for gold) is already on a true bull signal, Copper broke out, Silver is in the bullish config, etc.
NEW/Nov25: If we do not get the weakness into December it is quite possible that we see a strong rally into Jan-Feb to challenge the 2021/2022 highs before we come crashing down to set up a real bull market in the second part of 2023 (see my dollar comment).
NEW/Dec11: So far, we are keeping nicely inside the bull market required range. Being under $10.12 for another week will penetrate the 92-96 index toward a sell signal. If a larger correction starts it must not sell the 35-39 index yet. A sudden strength would avoid the bull market signal altogether.
Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 34 days, +21.66% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to SELL 5886/-1.92% or lower; current $6002)
*comment/Dec15: The XGD chart configuration is now bullish but needs more work. The 35-39 and 92-96 bought and holding. I am 25% long and looking to buy more on weak days, but there have not been many. The 218-222 generated a buy signal but it will probably be short-lived. If the 35-39 buy signal keeps propelling the price $6800 is the target (wouldn't exclude $7700 sometime in February 2023).
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