The State Of Indices, 8/9/2022

 SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 24 days, -4.14% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3979)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3801 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The August close was $3955 so no crash yet. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside (based on the 2020 low). Very long-term, based on 2009 low the first target would be $3226 then $2735 then $2243 and ultimately sub $2000.
NEW/01Sep: So far it seems like we are heading towards a bearish 35-39 sell signal. If the price can rise above $4300 and buy the 92-96 it will change the configuration to bullish. I am positioned for the 35-39 sell signal. My position consists of a half position (short SandP) that I opened at $4176 (took half profit at $3717) and the whole position (short SandP) that I added at $4100.

HUI, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 7 days, -1.46% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $192.3)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The rise over the old trendline was rejected and then the 16-20 signal was generated. As I said before, the stage is now set for a double buy and forming a double bottom around Aug low or if that fails my old target of $180 gets activated again. $180 is the bull market support going back to 2015 therefore breaking this support might be dangerous ($140-150 target).
NEW/02Sep: The double buy is just a theory now. $180 acts like a magnet. The flush of stops is coming.
NEW/8Sep: So far the low was at $180.47. The very long-term support is still holding. The double buy is in play again. Can a 35-39 buy be generated before the support is broken?

Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 27 days, -5.27% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12259)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. A 35-39 sell signal is approaching ($11750ish). If, after that, a rally starts to buy the 92-96 I might switch to long but, for now, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.

Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, -4.67% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1832)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. A 35-39 sell signal is approaching ($1750ish). If, after that, a rally starts to buy the 92-96 I might switch to long but, for now, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 206 days, +109.29% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.26%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The 35-39 generated a buy signal. Scenarios are in play: the first one, up over 3.25% to negate the triple top for a new leg up (I probably go long USD). The second one, a quick sell of 35-39 and 92-96 for the end of the bull market (I go long TLT).
NEW/02Sep: Here we are, at the 3.25% level. This is critical. I absolutely expect resistance around here so if it can slice through with ease that would be telling. Possibly it could signal big problems with equity and financial markets in September. Watch out if 3.25% can be broken and held.
NEW/03Sep: The first day over 3.25% and 10yy is already down to 3.19%, so far it behaves as I expected but wait until the week after Labour day for the market to show its hand.
NEW/08Sep: After slicing through the 3.25% level on the first day after Labour Day 10yy has retraced again. This is the second time the attempt to depart failed. The resistance is still holding.

XAU, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 7 days, -1.79% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $100.68)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The attempt to generate a double buy signal so far failed but the setup is still there. The way the 35-39 buy was rejected was discouraging. $90 is a very long-term support and needs to hold (the low so far is $94.42). To turn the picture short-term bullish the price needs to close over $105ish and hold for a few days.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, -4.31% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to SELL 13.28/-3.42% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.75)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. ASA and XGD.AX are the only two gold indexes that have generated 35-39 buy and 16-20 buy. If this is bullish the 35-39 needs to hold or at least buy back quickly if sold. Time is running out. If the July low cannot hold the target is $12ish.

Bitcoin, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -3.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19358
*comment: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price advance was rejected at $25K and the 35-39 index sold so it is probably starting a new leg down. The next target is $13K. Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is the second part of 2023. The bulls need a new 35-39 or 92-96 buy signal to prevent the next leg down.

COPX copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 9 days, -9.92% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.32)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. 35-39 finally generated the buy signal and the expected correction has now generated the 16-20 buy signal. The 35-39 needs to hold if the bottom is in. The next signal will decide the character of the next leg, 16-20 sell means a potential breakout, and 35-39 sell means more pain (target $22ish).

GDX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 9 days, -6.93% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $24.32)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The super important support at $25 didn't hold. If not recovered quickly (I think, the week after Labour day is the decider) the target is $23 and then $20.84. After that only the 2020 lows are left untouched ($16.3). The double buy setup is still alive but the probability of it happening is now marginal. Sentiment in the sector is horrible and we must be close to some kind of a bottom. How low, that is the question?

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days,
-8.1% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.97)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16-20 index buy signal has been generated. The setup has been completed for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If 16-20 buy cannot hold a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in the cards.
NEW/30Aug: 35-39 keeps rejecting the buy signal. A quick drop to flash out the stops underneath the recent low ($28.88) now looks probable. See the targets above.
NEW/08Sep: The above-mentioned flush of stops has happened ($28.08 new low). The desired outcome is now to buy back the 35-39 index for a potential bottom. Among the gold indices, the GDXJ chart looks best suited for the double buy.

GLD, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days, -2.33% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $159.94)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. We are back at the crucial support ($158-160) that must hold or the bull market structure (from 2016) will be damaged. If the support holds the double buy is warranted and a massive double bottom will be confirmed. If the support doesn't hold $150-152 is the initial target ($1600-1640 spot gold).
NEW/08Sep: As expected, the decision has been postponed until Sept. $158-160 support is still holding. The 35-39 started breaking towards the buy signal. If the equity market breaks down the gold is probably going with it but there is also a possibility of them disconnecting like in Oct 2008. Let's see what the next few days bring.

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days, -4.12% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.0)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The 16-20 index generated a buy signal. That sets the stage for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If successful a double bottom pattern will emerge. If 16-20 cannot hold $15-16ish is the initial target ($16.19 so far, on Sept 1st, was that the bottom?).

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, +0.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $111.67)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The potentially bullish 35-39 buy didn't hold so everything is bearish now. The target I have been mentioning since May ($110) still acts as the magnet.

TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 9 days, -3.17% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $109.19)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That is pretty bearish and a test of the low should be expected. This is good for the dollar and bad for equity markets (10yy up). Having said that, the weekly and daily charts show that there is significant support around $109.48 that needs to be broken before the breakdown is confirmed (so far 109.6 on a closing basis). If successful the target is $101ish but my bias, for now, is that it will hold.
NEW/02Sep: We are very close to the important $109.48 support. If this cannot hold the whole market could blow up in September.

UCO, on 16-20 BUY. onpath, xxed, 2 days, -9.83% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.35)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is finally bearish. To reverse that the price needs to rise over $45. The rallies are to be shorted. The downside target is $25ish.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 20 days, +6.25% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.95)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index was bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup.
NEW/25Aug: The 16-20 buy execution was marked with an explosion over the critical $22 level. Very bullish. I have significant Uranium stock positions in my core portfolio. Today I added more to my trading portfolio (Sprott Uranium Stocks ETF and some Aussie stocks). Will sell my trading positions at URA $25ish. After that, we will see.
NEW/01Sep: I moved my stops for new positions to break even.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, 8 days, -2.94%; run pattern in-progress 1D/1U/+2.42%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.9)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/02Sep: Today we broke the July low. $7.5is target now. The double buy setup is still there but the structure is weakening.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 265 days, +16.66% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.34)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. Since August, I have been saying that an important top might have been forming around the $29 level and that a double sell 16-20/35-39 would be a confirmation. The stage for this double sell was set with the 16-20 sell but the price exploded after that, avoiding a 35-39 sell. It is holding above $29 which was the 17th July high. The setup for a double sell was still valid this week but now it all starts taking shape of a breakout.
NEW/03Sep: The TLT falling below $109.48 and 10yy above 3.25% would corroborate that this breakout is for real. The market is pushing it to the limit as usual. The week after Labour day will show the direction.

Australian XGD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, -0.82% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4609)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4765 target was hit the rally started and the price rose above the 35-39 index but then fell back below it for bearishness. The 35-39 buy on the path of trades is now possible for a potential bottom but more probably we will see the $4400-4600 area being hit where I will start accumulating again.