*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3796 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The August close was $3955 so no crash yet. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside (based on the 2020 low). Very long-term, based on the 2009 low the first target would be $3226 then $2735 then $2243 and ultimately sub $2000.
NEW/24Sep: As of Thursday 22nd the price is below the critical $3796 monthly level. If it can close the month below this level the crash scenario is in play. The first target is $3495. The 10yy suggests it might be happening but let's wait till the EOM. My position consists of half of the original position (short SandP) that I opened at $4176 (took half profit at $3717) and the whole position (short SandP) that I added at $4100.
HUI, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 19 days, -7.88% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $179.77)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal is being rejected again (bearish). So far the low was $180.47 but it seems it will be tested again. $180 is the bull market support going back to 2015 therefore breaking this support might be dangerous ($140-160 target).
NEW/Sep24: As suggested above, the support is being tested. $180 needs to hold but it seems we will dive below it soon. $140-160 area looks like target now.
Nasdaq, last signal 35-39 SELL, 7 days, -5.17% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11311)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal was generated. This should mark a start of a new leg down. The first target is $10579 probably by mid-October. If this doesn't work and a move to the upside happens a 92-96 buy signal will be triggered. I might switch to the long side in that case but it is still too early to say. It might be a bull trap. For now, I am short this market via SandP.
Russell 2000, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, -6.04% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1679)
*comment/24Sep: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index sold. The 92-96 is bearishly rejecting the buy signal. If, after the 35-39 sell signal a 92-96 buy signal is generated I might switch to long but, for now, I am short this market via SandP. The first downside target is $1534.
10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 218 days, +136.99% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.7%)
*comment/17Sep: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. It is becoming evident that the 10yy is at an important juncture. Holding above 3.25% is strengthening the short-term SKI structure, which is supportive of further advance. At the same time, struggling to depart from the previous high (3.48%) for long enough will eventually lead to a situation where a double sell is possible which would be the end of the bull market (by mid-October). This is probably the most important chart to follow at the moment. Above 3.5% and the new leg up will start, below 3.25% and the end of the bull market is probable. Watch this chart in conjunction with UUP and TLT.
NEW/24Sep: The yield is above 3.5% which suggests weakness in equity markets and potential breakdown. Everyone should be very careful with being exposed to these conditions.
XAU, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, -5.96% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $93.81)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. As expected the 35-39 buy signal didn't last long so we can expect the test of the recent low. $90 is a very long-term support and needs to hold (the low so far is $94.42).
NEW/24Sep: New low today ($92.51). The long-term uptrend will be tested at $90. A flush to $80-85 is probable in my opinion.
ASA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, -5.26% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12.42)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index finally sold. If the July low cannot hold ($13.04) the first target is $12ish.
NEW/24Sep: We are on the way to $12 and probably beyond. The weekly rPrice(200) is -26.2%, at the corona low it was -23.1%. On the daily chart, the current rPrice(200) is -33.4% and at the corona low it was -30%. Having said that, in Nov 2015 it was -55% so I guess we cannot be sure that this is the bottom but some kind of relief rally should ensue soon. Sentiment indicators are showing divergencies across the board.
Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 7 days, -5.74% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $18972
*comment: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price advance was rejected at $25K and the 35-39 index sold so it is probably starting a new leg down. The next target is $13K. Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is the second part of 2023. The bulls need a new 35-39 or 92-96 buy signal to prevent the leg down.
COPX copper miners, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.51)
*comment/24Sep: COPX is in a bearish configuration. I said before that "The next signal will decide the character of the next leg, a 16-20 sell ($32ish) means a potential breakout and a 35-39 sell means more pain (target $22ish)". Today we got the answer, 35-39 sell it is. This setup is probably worth shorting. $26.01 is the low for now but the final target is around $21.
DXY (dollar index), on 92-96 true BUY, 317 days, +22.16% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $113.02)
*comment/23Sep: The DXY is in a bullish configuration. The price is departing from the critical $110 level. The SKI structure is gradually strengthening again, suggesting more advances ahead. The 10yy and TLT are confirming. The target is $121.07.
GDX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 21 days,
-14.12% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.44)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal is being rejected again while the crucial $25 level is being lost again. That is not bullish. The downside potential is quite substantial if the recent low ($22.97) gives up.
NEW/24Sep: The price sliced convincingly through the $22.97 low. That means more downside is ahead of us. The first target is a gap at $21.93, then $20.55 and ultimately $16-17ish. In the search for the potential low, we can look at the 881-885 index buy signal especially if it is combined with visiting 2020 lows and a proper rPrice reading. I'll give more details if we get there.
GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, -17.17% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.01)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16-20 index buy signal has been generated. The setup has been completed for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If 16-20 buy cannot hold a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in the cards.
NEW/24Sep: The 35-39 buy signal has been rejected again. The recent low ($28.08) has been exceeded. The targets are $26 and then $23-24 area.
GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 7 days, -1.27% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $153.01)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. We are back at the crucial support ($158-160) that must hold or the bull market structure (from 2016) will be damaged. If the support holds the double buy is warranted and a massive double bottom will be confirmed. If the support doesn't hold $150-152 is the initial target ($1600-1640 spot gold).
NEW/24Sep: The 35-39 sell signal marked a breakdown. The low didn't hold. The target is now at $148ish (gold spot $1590ish) rather than my previously stated $150-152.
SLV, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.36)
*comment/23Sep: The SKI structure is bearish. The 16-20 index generated a sell signal and was joined by the 35-39 sell for a double sell. This pattern might have marked a top and a start of a new leg down (target $15-16). The price needs to rise over $19 to negate these signals.
TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 14 days, -3.3% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $107.54)
*comment/23Sep: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The potentially bullish 35-39 buy didn't hold so everything is bearish now. As suspected, the price fell below $110 and then accelerated. The weekly rPrice(200) is at
-10.74%. The minimum recorded since the inception of TLT was -10.33% at the 2008 low. On the daily chart the minimum was in Nov 2008 -13.45%, today it is -10.28 so by this measure there is some more space to go but we should be close to the bottom. I think the target should be sub $107 for the final bottom ($107.53 Nov 2018 low, 107.37 Mar 2020 low). Considering the strong momentum I expect this to happen sooner than later, probably by October 2022.
NEW/24Sep: Approaching $107. No signs of the bottom so far.
TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 21 days, -6.27% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $105.7)
*comment/23Sep: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That was bearish and the price immediately fell down to test and exceed the recent low (the new low is $105.27). The next target is $101.17 (Dec 2013 low). On the other hand, the weekly rPrice(200) reading is -23%. That is by far the lowest on record since the TLT was introduced. Usually, that would mean that some type of correction is due but considering the strong momentum we should probably focus on that $101 target for now.
UCO (crude oil), on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 14 days, -17.51% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $26.85)
*comment/23Sep: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. To reverse that the price needs to rise over $45. The rallies are to be shorted. The downside target is $25ish.
NEW/24Sep: Approaching the support zone at $25ish but I expect it to dive under and touch/break $23-24 before a correction.
URA (uranium stocks), 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 to BUY 20.14/+4.46% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.28)
*comment/24Sep: The chart is in a bearish configuration. A nice bullish 92-96 buy signal fell short by one day and then the whole bullish setup blew up by selling the 35-39 index. The execution of the 16-20/35-39 buy/sell combo could mark the low but given the severity of the failed setup and the overall equity market condition, I am expecting further losses. The first target is $17.78 and then lower to touch the bottom of the downtrend channel at $14-15ish.
USERX, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, -5.66%; run pattern in-progress 1U/2D/-3.02%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.33)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/20Sep: The 35-39 index sold. Gold stocks are diverging gold but sub $7.5 is still the target. On the other hand, if the bottom is in we will not know before the price rises over $10.28.
NEW/24Sep: The fall continues, the current target area is 881-885 index. The back prices of this index sit between $6.95 and $7.59 for the next 15 days. Where to look for a possible bottom? The weekly rPrice(200) at the 2020 low was -22.9%, and the current is -21.54% so we are in the ballpark. The $8.0 area is the support emanating from 2015 low and if broken hard and quickly recovered we might be close to the low. Let's see if and how we hit the 881-885 index and behaviour around that level. If the behaviour implies strong support and it is combined with a favourable rPrice reading the low might be in.
Australian XGD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 15 days, -2.28% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4542)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4765 target was hit the rally started and the price rose above the 35-39 index but then fell back below it for bearishness. The 35-39 buy on the path of trades is now possible for a potential bottom but more probably we will see the $4400-4600 area being hit where I will start accumulating again.
NEW/16Sep: The 35-39 buy was rejected again and in a strong manner. We finally entered my accumulation zone ($4400-4600). I'll be probably buying this week but am not in a hurry.
NEW/24sep: 20% long. No stop loss for now.
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