SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, -4.46% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3966)
*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The July close was $4130 so no crash yet. Potentially this rally could go to $4300-4400 (so far $4325). I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside.
NEW/01Sep: So far it seems like we are heading towards a bearish 35-39 sell signal. If the price can rise above $4300 and buy the 92-96 it will change the configuration to bullish. I am positioned for the 35-39 sell signal. My position consists of a half position (short SandP) that I opened at $4176 (took half profit at $3717) and the whole position (short SandP) that I added at $4100.
HUI, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 4 days, -7.4% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $180.7)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The rise over the old trendline was rejected and now the 16-20 signal has been generated. As I said before, the stage is now set for a double buy and forming a double bottom around Aug low or if that fails my old target of $180 gets activated again. $180 is the bull market support going back to 2015 therefore breaking this support might be dangerous ($140-150 target).
NEW/02Sep: The double buy is just a theory now. $180 acts like a magnet. The flush of stops is coming.
Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 24 days, -5.15% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12274)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The June bottom was at $11037 and since then bear market rally lifted the price back to $13750 (my target was $13500). The resistance line (going back to the January top) was violated for a short period but now the price is back below the line. $13500-13700 is the resistance that needs to be broken for 92-96 buy to be generated for a potential bullishness but more probably we will first test the support ($12500). A drop to this support will be marked with a 16-20 buy signal and if it can hold a new bull market could be born if the price rises over $13500 (I might switch to long in that case). For me, a more probable scenario is breaking $12500 for a new leg down to reach my original target at $10579. We will see, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.
NEW/30Aug: As expected, the $12500 was hit finally. See my comments above for further scenarios.
Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 20 days, -5.15% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1822)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 index rejected the bear market rally and it seems we are entering a correction down to buy the 16-20 index. There is a scenario among many other scenarios where after the 16-20 buy signal the 92-96 buys as well in which case I might switch to the long side. For now, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.
10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 203 days, +109.29% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.26%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. 16-20 sold signalling that we are entering an important juncture. Scenarios are in play: first, up over 3.1% to buy back 35-39 and negate the triple top for a new leg up. Second, up over 3.1% to buy back 35-39 index and then a quick sell of 35-39 and 92-96 for the end of the bull market (I go long TLT). Third, down to sell 92-96 and end the bull market (I go long TLT).
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 generated buy signal, that eliminates the third scenario. 3.17% is the next resistance, then 3.25%. After considering daily and weekly charts it is possible to say that no breakout is confirmed before these levels are broken. All indicators are close to the overbought territory. Continuation up to 3.2-3.25% will stretch everything up too much so I'd say if we get there that would be some kind of the top followed by a test of the support. Support is around 2.9% today and rising.
NEW/02Sep: Here we are, at the 3.25% level. This is critical. I absolutely expect resistance around here so if it can slice through with ease that would be telling. Possibly it could signal big problems with equity and financial markets in September. Watch out if 3.25% can hold.
XAU, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, -7.61% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $94.71)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The intraday low on 25th July was $99.81. A rally back to sell 16-20 has finished and marked the short-term top. Seems like a 35-39 buy will be avoided for now. That is not good because this buy would improve the chances that the recent low was the bottom. If the next signal is a 16-20 buy, the recent bottom will be tested with a possibility of a double buy but also a risk to finally flush the stops around $90-95.
NEW/01Sep: 16-20 has bought but the way the 35-39 buy was rejected was discouraging. The July low has been exceeded and a drop to the $90-95 area is unfolding. The setup for a double buy is still active but now I'd forget about it.
NEW/02Sep: It seems that my projected target area should be adjusted to $85-90.
ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days, -5.85% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to SELL 13.29/-1.77% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.53)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The rise to 16-20 sell was successful but then the 35-39 rejected further rise. This doesn't look particularly bullish but the setup is building up for a double buy 16-20/35-39 to mark the bottom potentially. If 16-20 buy cannot stop the fall then the recent low will be tested and probably exceeded (target $12ish).
NEW/30Aug: ASA and XGD.AX are the only two gold indexes that have generated 35-39 buy and 16-20 buy. If this is bullish the 35-39 needs to hold or at least buy back quickly if sold. Time is running out.
Bitcoin, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, +0.17% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20075
*comment: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price advance was rejected at $25K and the 35-39 index sold so it is probably starting a new leg down. The next target is $13K. Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is probably the second part of 2023. The bulls need a new 35-39 or 92-96 buy signal to prevent the next leg down.
COPX copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 6 days, -11.8% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 30.42/+5.96% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.71)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. The expected advance to $32-33 is being rejected by the 35-39 index resistance. There is still a good chance for this index to buy before the 16-20 buys which would be bullish. If 16-20 buys first there is a possibility to form a double buy with the 35-39. If this signal (16-20) cannot hold a new leg down is probable ($22ish target). For now, my bias is bullish but that can change quickly.
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 finally generated the buy signal. This improves the chance that the July bottom was a significant one. A correction to 16-20 buy should be expected now.
NEW/01Sep: 16-20 started breaking to buy, 35-39 to sell.
GDX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 6 days, -11.75% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $23.06)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The super important support at $25 is holding for now. Today's 16-20 buy improves the chance that the support will hold. A potential double buy has been set up. If the 16-20 buy signal cannot hold the bull market structure from 2016 will be broken so watch out.
NEW/01Sep: 16-20 bought but the $25 level didn't hold. The double buy setup is still alive but the probability of it happening is marginal. $23 is now a short-term target but it all seems like $20.84 will be hit. After that only the 2020 lows are left untouched ($16.3). Sentiment in the sector is horrible and we must be closing to some kind of a bottom. How low, that is the question?
GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days,
-13.55% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.19)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16-20 index buy signal has been generated. The setup has been completed for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If 16-20 buy cannot hold a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in the cards.
NEW/30Aug: 35-39 keeps rejecting the buy signal. A quick drop to flash out the stops underneath the recent low ($28.88) now looks probable. See the targets above.
GLD, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, -3.59% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $157.87)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. If you remember, when the 16-20 sell was generated I said that the optimal scenario for confirming the bottom would be a drift down to buy the 16-20 and then buy the 35-39 for a double buy and simultaneous break out of the downtrend line. The initial momentum after the 16-20 sell was upwards so I abandoned this scenario in favour of a 35-39 buy signal. As soon as I changed my mind the momentum died and here we are, the 16-20 buy was generated today making my original scenario valid. The problem is along the way the 218-222 index was bought and then sold so I do not know how much that changes the potential of the setup. Anyway, we are back at the crucial support ($158-160) that must hold or the bull market structure (from 2016) will be damaged. If the support holds the double buy is warranted and a massive double bottom will be confirmed. If the support doesn't hold $150-152 is the initial target ($1600-1640 spot gold).
NEW/30Aug: So far $160 is holding but the 35-39 keeps rejecting the buy signal. It wouldn't take much of a rise to generate this signal but it seems like the market wants to drag it out to the last moment, as usual. September?
NEW/02Sep: $160 support is breaking and stops are being hit. We can expect high volatility in the next few days. If the equity market breaks down the GLD might be hit $145-150.
SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, -7.61% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16.38)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The 16-20 index generated a buy signal. That sets the stage for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If successful a double bottom pattern will emerge. If 16-20 cannot hold $15-16ish is the initial target.
TIP, on 35-39 BUY, 17 days, -3.3% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 113.66/+1.83% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $111.62)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The price gapped over all of the 16-20 back prices and generated a 16-20 sell signal and also a new 35-39 buy signal. If this signal can hold an important bottom might be in (so far so good). Otherwise, the $110 area is the target on the downside.
NEW/02Sep: Big breakdown today. Finally, the target I have been mentioning since May ($110) will be hit.
TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, -2.81% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $109.6)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That is pretty bearish and a test of the low should be expected. This is good for the dollar and bad for equity markets (10yy up). Having said that, the weekly and daily charts show that there is significant support around $109.48 that needs to be broken before the breakdown is confirmed. If successful the target is $101ish but my bias, for now, is that it will hold.
NEW/02Sep: We are very close to the important $109.48 support. If this cannot hold the whole market could blow up in September.
UCO, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 34.86/+8.56% or higher; 35-39 to BUY 34.66/+7.94% or higher; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $32.11)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is neutral for now but will change to bearish if the price drops below $34ish or bullish if the price rises over $45ish.
NEW/30Aug: 35-39 bought one day after 16-20 sold. Potentially a top pattern but let's see. If it can break through and buy 92-96 it will be very bullish.
NEW/02Sep: The 35-39 buy marked a top and the price just collapsed to the support line. The 35-39 sold again. The price needs to spend a few days under $34 for the action to look like a breakdown.
URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, +3.1% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.27)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup.
NEW/25Aug: The 16-20 buy execution was marked with an explosion over the critical $22 level. Very bullish. I have significant Uranium stock positions in my core portfolio. Today I added more to my trading portfolio (Sprott Uranium Stocks ETF and some Aussie stocks). Will sell my trading positions at URA $25ish. After that, we will see.
NEW/01Sep: I moved stop loss for new positions to break even.
USERX, on 16-20 BUY, 5 days, -6.98%; run pattern in-progress 3U/5D/-2.18%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.53)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/02Sep: Today we broke the July low. $7.5is target now. Forget about the double buy.
UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 262 days, +16.78% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.37)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. For the last few weeks, I have been saying that an important top might have been forming around the $29 level and that a double sell 16-20/35-39 would be a confirmation. The stage for this double sell was set 7 days ago with the 16-20 sell but the price exploded after that, avoiding a 35-39 sell. Today it is holding above $29 which was the 17th July high. The setup for a double sell is valid till the end of the first week of Sept. After that, it will all look like a breakout. The TLT falling below $109.48 would corroborate that this breakout is for real (10yy probably above 3.25% in that case).
NEW/02Sep: All parameters mentioned above are falling in place for a potential explosion (UUP holding above $29, 10yy at 3.26%, TLT around $109.48). The market is pushing it to the limit as usual. The week after Labour day will show the direction.
Australian XGD, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY $4800/+2.68% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4675)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4765 target was hit the rally started but it fell short of buying the 35-39 index and therefore confirming the bottom. Right now the whole move after the bottom looks like a test of the breakdown level from below. If the next sequence of events is 16-20buy/35-39buy I will add to my longs with the stop loss at 35-39 sell. If the 16-20 buys without 35-39 buying I will sell the rest of my positions on a close below the 16-20 buy-in price. If the next signal is a 35-39 buy signal I will just stay long, no additions, stop loss 35-39 sell. I am 50% long in my trading account.
NEW/25Aug: 35-39 index buy has been generated and today will be accompanied by a 16-20 buy signal. I added to my trading positions on Wed. I am back to 75% long. Stop loss is a 35-39 sell signal. At a 16-20 sell signal, I will again reduce my trading positions.
NEW/01Sep: As I write this all my stops were hit in Australia. I am back to flat in my trading account (still have core positions). Nice profits were made on this overall trade but still disappointing that the 35-39 buy was so weak. I expect it to sell today and the July bottom to be violated. In the $4400-4600 area, I will be accumulating again.
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