The State Of Indices, 20/9/2022

 SandP 500, last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, +0.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3899)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3801 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The August close was $3955 so no crash yet. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside (based on the 2020 low). Very long-term, based on 2009 low the first target would be $3226 then $2735 then $2243 and ultimately sub $2000.
NEW/Sep20: 35-39 sold. For now, I am short this market but if the next signal is 92-96 buy I might switch to the long side. My position consists of half of the original position (short SandP) that I opened at $4176 (took half profit at $3717) and the whole position (short SandP) that I added at $4100.

HUI, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 15 days, +0.3% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $195.73)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal is being rejected again (bearish). So far the low was $180.47 but it seems it will be tested again. $180 is the bull market support going back to 2015 therefore breaking this support might be dangerous ($140-150 target).
NEW/Sep20: The support is still holding. Nice divergence with the gold chart is developing. For real bullishness, we still need that 35-39 buy signal.

Nasdaq, last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, +0.22% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11953)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal was generated. This should mark a start of a new leg down. The first target is $10579 probably by mid-October. If this doesn't work and a move to the upside happens a 92-96 buy signal will be triggered. I might switch to the long side in that case but it is still too early to say. It might be a bull trap. For now, I am short this market via SandP.

Russell 2000, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 1883/+3.89% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1812)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index sold. If, after the 35-39 sell signal a 92-96 buy signal is generated I might switch to long but, for now, I am short this market via SandP.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 214 days, +123.72% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.49%)
*comment/17Sep: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. It is becoming evident that the 10yy is at an important juncture. Holding above 3.25% is strengthening the short-term SKI structure and that is supportive for further advance. At the same time, struggling to depart from the previous high (3.48%) for long enough will eventually lead to a situation where a double sell is possible which would be the end of the bull market (by mid-October). This is probably the most important chart to follow at the moment. Above 3.5% and the new leg up will start, below 3.25% and the end of the bull market is probable. Watch this chart in conjunction with UUP and TLT.

XAU, last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, +2.67% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.42)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. As expected the 35-39 buy signal didn't last long so we can expect the test of the recent low. $90 is a very long-term support and needs to hold (the low so far is $94.42).

ASA, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.47)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index finally sold. If the July low cannot hold ($13.04) the first target is $12ish.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 3 days, -2.95% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $19533
*comment: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price advance was rejected at $25K and the 35-39 index sold so it is probably starting a new leg down. The next target is $13K. Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is the second part of 2023. The bulls need a new 35-39 or 92-96 buy signal to prevent the leg down.

COPX copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 17 days, -6.39% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.47)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. 35-39 finally generated the buy signal and the expected correction has now generated the 16-20 buy signal. The 35-39 needs to hold if the bottom is in. The next signal will decide the character of the next leg, 16-20 sell ($32ish) means a potential breakout, and 35-39 sell means more pain (target $22ish).

GDX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 17 days, -6.54% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $24.42)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal is being rejected again while the crucial $25 level is being lost again. That is not bullish. The downside potential is quite substantial if the recent low ($22.97) gives up.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days,
-7.88% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.04)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16-20 index buy signal has been generated. The setup has been completed for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If 16-20 buy cannot hold a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in the cards.
NEW/16Sep: The f35-39 buy signal is being rejected again. Expect the recent low ($28.08) to be tested. If it cannot hold see the targets above.

GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, +0.63% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $155.96)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. We are back at the crucial support ($158-160) that must hold or the bull market structure (from 2016) will be damaged. If the support holds the double buy is warranted and a massive double bottom will be confirmed. If the support doesn't hold $150-152 is the initial target ($1600-1640 spot gold).
NEW/15Sep: $158-160 is still holding but, as predicted before, the 35-39 index quickly sold. Way too quickly in fact. This ruins the setup for a well-structured double bottom. If the bottom is in, it looks now like there will be a slow choppy rise until a new 35-39 buy signal in October. I think the more probable scenario is now the flushing of those stop loss orders sitting underneath $158. In other words a test of $150-152 area ($1600-1640 spot gold).
NEW/20Sep: The 35-39 marked a breakdown. The good news is silver and gold stocks are diverging. There is a possibility that the breakdown was fake and served the purpose of flushing out the stops. If that is true the low should hold ($154.34) otherwise the target is probably at $148ish rather than my previously stated $150-152.

SLV, 16-20 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.99)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The 16-20 index generated a buy signal and was joined by the 35-39 buy for a double buy. A double bottom pattern is emerging but SLV is still not out of the woods. The price needs to rise over $19.04 to avoid a 35-39 sell signal.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 10 days, -1.81% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $109.2)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The potentially bullish 35-39 buy didn't hold so everything is bearish now. The target I have been mentioning since May ($110) still acts as the magnet.
NEW/15Sep: The target was hit intraday ($110.07) but I suspect that sub $110 will be hit in the next few days for some kind of the bottom. After that, we will see.
NEW/16Sep: As suspected, the price fell below $110. Will the support kick in or we accelerate? The weekly rPrice(200) is at -9.34%. The minimum recorded since the inception of TLT was -10.33% at the 2008 low. On the daily chart the minimum was in Nov 2008 -13.45%, today it is -9.18 so by this measure there is some more space to go. The interesting detail is that after the gold bottomed in Oct 2008 and the TLT in Nov 2008 they rose together until gold topped out in Aug 2011. I think the target should be sub $107 for the final bottom ($107.53 Nov 2018 low, 107.37 Mar 2020 low). Considering the strong momentum I expect this to happen sooner than later, probably in October 2022.

TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 17 days, -4.83% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.32)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That was bearish and the price immediately fell down to test and exceed the recent low (the new low is $106.24). It seems that TLT just cannot get any traction. If that continues the next target is $101.17 (Dec 2013 low). On the other hand, the weekly rPrice(200) reading is -23%. That is by far the lowest on record since the TLT was introduced. Usually, that would mean that some type of correction is due but considering the strong momentum we should probably focus on that $101 target for now.

UCO (crude oil), on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 10 days,
-5.5% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $30.76)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is finally bearish. To reverse that the price needs to rise over $45. The rallies are to be shorted. The downside target is $25ish.

URA (uranium stocks), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days, +1.71% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $21.97)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index was bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup.
New/16Sep: I will consider buying back if we retrace to $21.5ish to generate 16-20 and 92-96 buy signals.

USERX, 35-39 crossed to SELL; run pattern in-progress 1D/2U/+0.57%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 9.65/+7.46% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.98)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/20Sep: The 35-39 index sold. Gold stocks are diverging gold but $7.5 is still the target. On the other hand, if the bottom is in we will not know before the price rises over $10.28.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 273 days, +16.82% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.38)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. Since August, I have been saying that an important top might have been forming around the $29 level and that a double sell 16-20/35-39 would be a confirmation. The struggle around $29 continues. The recent action suggests that a double top is still in play but things are not so straightforward anymore. The most probable next signal is now 16-20 buy which represents support. In order to confirm the double top this support needs to fail and then there is still the 35-39 index underneath around $28.5 as the next support. Keep an eye on 10yy and TLT for more clarity.

Australian XGD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -1.02% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4600)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4765 target was hit the rally started and the price rose above the 35-39 index but then fell back below it for bearishness. The 35-39 buy on the path of trades is now possible for a potential bottom but more probably we will see the $4400-4600 area being hit where I will start accumulating again.
NEW/16Sep: The 35-39 buy was rejected again and in a strong manner. We finally entered my accumulation zone ($4400-4600). I'll be probably buying this week but am not in a hurry.
NEW/20sep: 10% long. No stop loss for now.