SandP 500, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 29 days, -4.96% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL3967/+0.53% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3946)
*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3801 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. The August close was $3955 so no crash yet. I am still looking for $3400-3495 on the downside (based on the 2020 low). Very long-term, based on 2009 low the first target would be $3226 then $2735 then $2243 and ultimately sub $2000.NEW/13Sep: 35-39 index acted as support and the price is sharply rising since the index was touched. It is all happening inside the down-trending channel that started at Jan top. If this channel is broken to the upside the SKI structure will change to bullish (92-96 will buy). In that case, I might switch to the long side for a while but let's see first if the signal can be generated.
NEW/15Sep: The pressure is again against the support. The 35-39 is on the verge of selling, which could mark the start of the new leg down. My position consists of half of the original position (short SandP) that I opened at $4176 (took half profit at $3717) and the whole position (short SandP) that I added at $4100.
HUI, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 12 days, +0.0% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $195.15)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The rise over the old trendline was rejected, and the 16-20 buy signal was generated. The stage is set for a double buy and forming a double bottom around Aug low or if that fails my old target of $180 gets activated again. $180 is the bull market support going back to 2015 therefore breaking this support might be dangerous ($140-150 target).
NEW/8Sep: So far the low was $180.47. The very long-term support is still holding. The double buy is in play again. Can a 35-39 buy be generated before the support is broken?
Nasdaq, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 12602/+3.86% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12134)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell was generated today. This should mark a start of a new leg down. The first target is $10579 probably by mid-October. If this doesn't work and a move to the upside happens a 92-96 buy signal will be triggered. I might switch to the long side in that case but it is still too early to say. It might be a bull trap.
Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days, -4.34% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1838)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. A 35-39 sell signal is approaching ($1800ish). If, after that, a rally starts to buy the 92-96 I might switch to long but, for now, I am short this market via SandP and VIX.
10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 211 days, +118.72% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.41%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The 10yy chart looks more and more like a breakout. If the yield can be sustained above 3.25% for a few more days the SKI structure will become supportive for further rise. Watch this chart in conjunction with UUP and TLT chart for clues on where this is going.
XAU, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days, -0.24% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 100.64/-1.58% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.26)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. Finally, the 35-39 buy has been generated but because of the time delay, the structure of this buy is now weak. There is a high chance it will not hold for long enough to mark a breakout. $90 is a very long-term support and needs to hold (the low so far is $94.42). If the 35-39 buy signal cannot hold I think this support ($90) will be challenged.
ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, -3.55% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.86)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 held the buy signal for now. The price needs to rally quickly ($14.99) to prevent the sell signal in the next two weeks because the back prices have turned up and will rise till the end of September.
Bitcoin, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, -10.44% (also, 16-20 to BUY 19616/-2.09% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20034
*comment: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price advance was rejected at $25K and the 35-39 index sold so it is probably starting a new leg down. The next target is $13K. Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is the second part of 2023. The bulls need a new 35-39 or 92-96 buy signal to prevent the next leg down.
New/13Sep: 16-20 sold, a necessary precondition for an attempt to break out. If now the 92-96 index can generate a buy signal it will be on the path of trades and not xxed. In that case, I will go long for an attempt to hit $30K. The stop loss will be a 92-96 sell signal.
COPX copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 14 days, -6.02% (also, 16-20 to SELL 31.38/+2.58% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.59)
*comment: COPX is in a bearish configuration. $26.01 is the low for now. 35-39 finally generated the buy signal and the expected correction has now generated the 16-20 buy signal. The 35-39 needs to hold if the bottom is in. The next signal will decide the character of the next leg, 16-20 sell means ($32ish) a potential breakout, and 35-39 sell means more pain (target $22ish).
GDX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 14 days, -6.35% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $24.47)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The super important support at $25 was violated but has been recovered quickly in a bullish manner. The downside target was hit ($22.97) and it looks now like a bottom should emerge if the 35-39 buy signal can be generated.
GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days,
-6.87% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 30.79/+1.38% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.37)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16-20 index buy signal has been generated. The setup has been completed for a possible double buy with the 35-39 index. If 16-20 buy cannot hold a quick drop to $26 and then $23-24 is in the cards.
NEW/13Sep: The flush of stops has happened ($28.08 new low). The desired outcome is now to buy back the 35-39 index for a potential bottom.
GLD, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 160.28/+1.49% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $157.93)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. We are back at the crucial support ($158-160) that must hold or the bull market structure (from 2016) will be damaged. If the support holds the double buy is warranted and a massive double bottom will be confirmed. If the support doesn't hold $150-152 is the initial target ($1600-1640 spot gold).
NEW/15Sep: $158-160 is still holding but, as predicted before, the 35-39 index quickly sold. Way too quickly in fact. This ruins the setup for a well-structured double bottom. If the bottom is in, it looks now like there will be a slow choppy rise until a new 35-39 buy signal in October. I think the more probable scenario is now the flushing of those stop loss orders sitting underneath $158. In other words a test of $150-152 area ($1600-1640 spot gold).
SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days, +1.52% (double buy with the 35-39 index) (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.00)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. The 16-20 index generated a buy signal and was joined by the 35-39 buy for a double buy. A double bottom pattern is emerging but SLV is still not out of the woods. The price needs to rise over $19.04 in the next two weeks to avoid a 35-39 sell signal and break out of the downtrend channel.
TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 7 days, -0.44% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $110.72)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The potentially bullish 35-39 buy didn't hold so everything is bearish now. The target I have been mentioning since May ($110) still acts as the magnet.
NEW/15Sep: The target was hit intraday ($110.07) but I suspect that sub $110 will be hit in the next few days for some kind of the bottom. After that, we will see.
TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 14 days, -4.19% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $108.04)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That was bearish and the price immediately fell down to test and exceed the recent low (the new low is $106.24). It seems that TLT just cannot get any traction. If that continues the next target is $101.17 (Dec 2013 low). On the other hand, the weekly rPrice(200) reading is -23%. That is the lowest on record since the TLT was introduced. Usually, that would mean that some type of correction is in the cards but there are no divergencies to indicate that the probability of this happening is high.
UCO, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 7 days, +2.67% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $33.42)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market ended. The SKI structure is finally bearish. To reverse that the price needs to rise over $45. The rallies are to be shorted. The downside target is $25ish.
URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 25 days, +7.73% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to BUY $23.71/+1.89% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $23.27)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 index was bought and was able to hold so far. This increases the chance that the recent low was a significant bottom (months) but I still need the price to consolidate above $22 to trust this setup.
NEW/25Aug: The 16-20 buy execution was marked with an explosion over the critical $22 level. Very bullish. I have significant Uranium stock positions in my core portfolio. Today I added more to my trading portfolio (Sprott Uranium Stocks ETF and some Aussie stocks). Will sell my trading positions at URA $25ish. After that, we will see.
NEW/10Sep: I sold my trading position for a nice profit. Initially, I thought to keep it until $25 but because of uncertainty in the debt market, I decided to take my money and run. It is ok because I still have a significant position in my core portfolio. I will consider buying back if we retrace to $21.5ish to generate some bullish signals or if we clear that $25 target that I was talking about before.
USERX, on 16-20 BUY, 13 days, -0.65% (now accompanied by a 35-39 buy for a double buy); run pattern in-progress 1D/1U/+0.55%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.11)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/10Sep: The 35-39 index bought back for a double buy. An attempt to rise above the crucial 10.28 level is now probable. Only after this level is behind us I will consider the bottom to have been confirmed.
UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 270 days, +16.82% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.38)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. Since August, I have been saying that an important top might have been forming around the $29 level and that a double sell 16-20/35-39 would be a confirmation. The struggle around $29 continues. The recent action suggests that a double top is still in play but things are not so straightforward anymore. The most probable next signal is now 16-20 buy which represents support. In order to confirm the double top this support needs to fail and then there is still the 35-39 index underneath around $28.5 as the next support. Keep an eye on 10yy and TLT for more clarity.
Australian XGD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 9 days, +3.26% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 4973/+3.63% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4799)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4765 target was hit the rally started and the price rose above the 35-39 index but then fell back below it for bearishness. The 35-39 buy on the path of trades is now possible for a potential bottom but more probably we will see the $4400-4600 area being hit where I will start accumulating again.
NEW/10Sep: The price didn't enter my accumulation zone so I am still flat in my trading account. If the 35-39 buy generates I will have to look for an entry but even if I miss the rally it is no biggie, I have plenty in my core portfolio.
NEW/15Sep: The 35-39 buy was rejected again and in a strong manner. That implies that I might see the price in my accumulation zone in the end ($4400-4600). Patience is in order.
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