The State Of Indices, 4/7/2022

 SandP 500, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, +2.41% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3825)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. In June this level was pierced but the close was above so we will see how the July action goes. I added to my shorts at $3900 and will add on every $200 rise up to $4400.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 12 days, -5.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $227.08)
*comment: HUI generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals that didn't generate support. The recent low ($236) was breached so $220 is the target.
NEW: We hit the target area ($220). A short-term rise to hit touch 16-20 ($245) should be expected. If $215-220 cannot hold the next target is $180ish.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days,
+2.27% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11127)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269.

Russell 2000, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days, -0.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1727)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 160 days, +85.19% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 2.97/+2.77% or higher; 35-39 to NOT SELL 3.08/+6.57% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.89%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%. The double sell scenario that I described before is still possible. The support is around 3%.
NEW: The expected retracement is now testing the 3% support level. A nice double top pattern is starting to emerge but the support is still holding. The 35-39 needs to sell for the double top to start looking real.
NEW: The 35-39 sell signal seems inevitable now. Most probably it will come together with the 16-20 buy signal so it might mark the bottom. If the signal can hold for a few days the top for yields might have been in.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 12 days, -6.4% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $114.1)
*comment: XAU generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom but this time it was just a pause. The recent low ($119) has been breached. The target on the downside is $100-110.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days,
-11.55% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.93)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. The support has been broken and the action is bearish. The next target on the downside is $14.82.
NEW: The target has been hit, short-term bounce is expected.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 23 days, -28.31% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19186
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but it is definitely time for some bounce or consolidation. Back to $24-26 maybe? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.
NEW: The last two weeks' action seems like a bearish flag is developing.

COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 11 days, -14.89% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.79)
*comment: Simultaneous 92-96 sell and 16-20 buy signals have been generated, usually this is a sign of a short-term bottom. The SKI structure is bearish now, the true bull signal has failed. I expect some short-term strength but nothing more than that. $34 is the next downside target but more importantly $30. If the price can rise over $42 I might consider the long side again.
NEW: The support broke down, and the $30 target has been hit. It will probably mark some kind of the bottom. A bounce to $35-36ish is expected.

GDX,last signal 92-96 SELL, 7 days, -2.59% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.16)
*comment: The 92-96 sold again. That is bearish. The support ($30) fell. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25ish.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days,
-11.89% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $33.05)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 didn't hold, a price collapse is probable down to $26-28.

GLD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 4 days, -0.77% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $168.32)
*comment: GLD chart is no more bullish but is still not outright bearish. The uptrend is still holding with support around $166. If the 218-222 index sells this support will be lost. In that case, the next target is $158-160. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to survive. The resistance has fallen to $170ish and looks pretty firm now. The true bull market setup is lost. It seems to me that $160ish is in the crosshairs (end of July to mid-August?).

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, -9.54% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.31)
*comment: The SKI structure is bearish. A rise over $21 would push the price back above the long-term support and improve the structure but it seems improbable. The recent 16-20 buy signal should help establish a potential low but for now, the odds are to the downside. $19 needs to hold.
NEW: Silver is close to breakdown, $19 is taken out. The SKI structure is bearish the target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 21 days, -2.09% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $115.17)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. It seems the short-term bounce is over. The downside target is still around $111.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 16 days, +1.17% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to BUY 117.73/+1.65% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current$115.82)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish. 16th Jun might have been a short-term low with the upside target of $114.
NEW: $114 target has been hit. If the price can rise over $117 and stay there for a couple of days, the bottom might have been in but my money is on a further slide to try to hit that $100-105 first.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 141 days, +120.7% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to SELL 37.81/-12.01% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $42.97)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been broken to the upside, as expected. Technically there is no serious resistance before $77. The trend support is around $45 and rising. Short-term we might have seen the top. $45 support level is expected to be tested.
NEW: The trendline ($45) has been broken. If the 35-39 sells the long-term double top will be confirmed. This is critical.

URA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 10 days, +0.85% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 to SELL 17.54/-7.78% or lower; current $19.02)
*comment: Both 92-96 and 218-222 sold at the same time. That is combined with a 16-20 buy so it might mark a low but for now, it looks more like a breakdown. The first target is $16. The bulls need a price rise over $21 and then to hold that level.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 11 days, -9.6%; run pattern in-progress 3D/1U/+0.31%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.6)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish and then sub $8.5ish.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 219 days, +11.53% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.05)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. The 16-20 sell execution might have marked a double top. The confirmation of such a top would be if the next signal was a 35-39 sell. If such a scenario transpires the important 27.19 support will be tested again. A rise over $28.21 would trigger a new leg up.
NEW: The double top scenario looks increasingly not likely but is still possible.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 8 days, -15.16% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4918)
*comment: The 92-96 buy didn't last for long. $5600-5800 critical area of support has been breached. The next target is $4765.
The long-term support is at $5600-5800 and has been violated in a serious manner. The importance of this support cannot be overexaggerated. It originated from Dec 2016 low so it has been valid for over 7 years. Now, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is being recalibrated. The $4765 target is in the crosshairs. I have started buying under $5000 for a short-term bounce.