The State Of Indices, 28/7/2022

 SandP 500, last signal 16-20 SELL, 11 days, +5.83% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4023)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. In June this level was pierced but the close was above so we will see how the July action goes. I added to my shorts at $3900 and will add on every $200 rise up to $4400.
The downside target, for now, is $3400-3495.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 29 days, -16.63% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $200.74)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The $215-220 support area has been breached and needs to be recovered quickly. Again, I expect a rise at least back to touch/break 16-20 index. If not the next target is $203, then $180ish.
NEW: $203 was hit intraday on Friday the 15th. If this fall continues uninterrupted we are going down to $180. I doubt it will go straight down but I was wrong all the way to here. Everything happened much quicker than I expected.

Nasdaq, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12601)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11760) has been hit the next target is $10579.
NEW: As I suspected last week Nasdaq started a rally. Target $13000ish?

Russell 2000, last signal 16-20 SELL, 10 days, +8.25% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1848)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534.
NEW: As I suspected last week Russell started a rally. Upside target $1900ish.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 177 days, +75.26% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 crossed to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.73%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%.
NEW: The 35-39 sold again and the chart pattern now looks like a confirmed triple top. 3.1% is serious resistance and 2.2-2.3% looks like a target on the downside. I expect some support around 2.7%. I will consider going long TLT if the next 10Y signal is 16-20 sell (2.9-3.1%).

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 29 days, -14.53% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $104.19)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. It generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom but this time it was just a pause. The recent low ($119) has been breached. The target on the downside is $100-110 but the final low might be sub-$100.
NEW: The lower boundary of the support zone is about to be tested. My projection of a sub-$100 bottom looks probable now. The final low shouldn't exceed $90-95 because that is where the long-term bull market support is. If we violate this support the whole bull market will be reconfigured.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 29 days,
-15.88% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.2)
*comment: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The support has been broken and the action is bearish. The next target on the downside is $14.82 (done).
NEW: The target has been hit but the fall continues. $13.04 has been the bottom for now. There are signs of support around this level. A rise to 16-20 sell signal is due.

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 5 days, +1.8% (also, 16-20 to BUY 19323/-15.51% or lower; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $22869
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but first back to $24-26? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.
NEW: 35-39 on the path buy signal has been generated. I think that this signal should propel the price up to 28K but the first stop is $26K. I establisheed a long position two days ago.

COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 28 days, -17.43% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.9)
*comment: The support broke down, and the $30 target has been hit. It will probably mark some kind of a bottom. A bounce to $30-32ish is expected.
NEW: The last 7 days look like an island reversal so I expect a rally to $32ish as a result.

GDX,last signal 92-96 SELL, 24 days, -11.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $25.53)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The support ($30) fell. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25ish (done).
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed without serious consequences.
NEW: The super important support at $25 is holding for now. The target for the bounce is $29ish.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days,
-14.66% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.01)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The $37 didn't hold, a price collapse is probable down to $26-28.
NEW: The price has entered the support zone. A bounce back to $35-36 is expected during the next few weeks. I'd be a buyer on days when the price dives below $28-29.

GLD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 21 days, -4.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $161.67)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The $166 support was broken. The next target is $158-160 (done) (spot $1700-1720 ). $158-160 must hold for the bull market to stay inside its current parameters.
NEW: The target zone was hit ($158.03 GLD, $1681 spot gold intraday). I expect a break of support to run the stops and then a bounce to at least 16-20 sell signal. $170 resistance needs to be overcome for a longer-lasting low to be formed.
NEW: I established a long position. Will hold it until 16-20 sell. Stop loss break of $1679 (moved stop loss to break-even).

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 28 days,
-13.04% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.6)
*comment: $19 was taken out. The SKI structure is bearish the target is 18.5ish (done) then sub $17.4ish (done).
NEW: The second target has been hit. The support zone should provide a bounce at least back to $19.

TIP, last signal 16-20 SELL, 2 dys, +0.64% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $116.45)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The downside target is still around $110-111 but recent action suggests there might be a rally soon. Let's see if there is enough energy to push the price up to a new 16-20 sell signal and potentially lock in a bottom.
NEW: The price gapped up over all of the 16-20 back prices and managed to generate a 16-20 sell signal. If the signal can hold until a new 35-39 buy signal the bottom might be in.

TLT, 35-39 crossed to BUY, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $116.82)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish.
NEW: $114 target has been hit and an attempt to take out $117 failed. If the price can rise over $117 and stay there for a couple of days, the bottom might have been in but for now, it seems that 35-39 rejected the move and the trend down will continue at least until the low has been tested again.
NEW: The price rose above $117 and bought 35-39. If it maintains this 35-39 buy until the new 16-20 buy it will highly increase the odds that the bottom is in. I'd say the chances are 50:50.

UCO, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, +1.49% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $38.82)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market finally ended. The SKI structure is now bearish. A rise to $44ish will make me consider a short position. The downside target is $22ish but $32 needs to be broken first which is not going to be easy.

URA, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +5.82% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $21.09)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target is $16. The bulls need a price rise over $21 and then to hold that level (almost there).

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 28 days, -13.65%; run pattern in-progress 2D/2U/+1.74%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.17)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish (done) and then sub $8.5ish ($8.79 so far).
NEW: The first target has been hit. I again expect a bounce to at least 10-10.2 to test the breakdown level. So far it is not happening, the fall towards the $8.5 target continues. The bull market support is positioned at $8.1ish. There are also 2 gaps on the weekly chart that haven't been closed from 2020, $8.36 and $7.22. Watch for these levels to be hit.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 236 days, +13.0% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.42)
*comment: The UUP is in a bullish configuration. The $29 target has been hit. I expect a correction down to touch/break 16-20 index. It is too early to tell but in hindsight, the last two weeks might have marked a significant top.
NEW: I mentioned before that the bull market has reached 221 days cycle and that we might be in a process of forming a significant top. So far day 227 marked the top and that fits nicely with the cycle length. The drop back to 16-20 support is almost done. Now, the question is if the 16-20 can buy which would increase the chance that the UUP price is rolling over.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 26 days, -14.22% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4973)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. The long-term support was at $5600-5800 and had been violated in a severe manner. Because of this, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is now being recalibrated. The $4765 target has been hit five times and provided firm support every time. I keep adding to long positions under $5000. I am 70% long in my trading account. I will add again on down days, especially if we dive under $4700. I expect a bounce to $5400-5600 where I will sell all or part of my new acquisitions.