SandP 500, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 18 days, +3.18% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 3789.93/-1.67% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3854)
*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. In June this level was pierced but the close was above so we will see how the July action goes. I added to my shorts at $3900 and will add on every $200 rise up to $4400.HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 17 days, -11.06% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $214.14)
*comment: HUI generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals that didn't generate support. The recent low ($236) was breached so $220 is the target.
NEW: We hit the target area ($220). A short-term rise to hit touch 16-20 ($240) should be expected. If $215-220 cannot hold the next target is $203, then $180ish.
Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 18 days,
+5.03% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 10808/-4.96% or lower; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11372)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269.
Russell 2000, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days, +0.05% (also, 16-20 to SELL 1800.51/+3.95% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1732.01)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534.
10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 165 days, +91.73% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.99%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%.
NEW: 35-39 and 16-20 executed simultaneous signals. 35-39 sold, 16-20 bought. Such a combo tends to mark lows but 35-39 needs to buy back to confirm it. If that doesn't happen and the fall continues the target is way down at 2.2-2.5%.
NEW: the 35-39 bought back and rose over the long-term resistance line. An interesting setup is developing. Visually the pattern looks like a triple top is in the making but there are two scenarios. The first scenario is confirmation of the triple top which would happen if the next signal is a 16-20 sell followed by a 35-39 sell or just the next signal is a plain 35-39 sell. If this plays out it would be a perfect spot to go long bonds. The second scenario is a breakout which would happen if the next signal is a 16-20 sell which then gets broken to the upside without a 35-39 sell. In this case, doubling up on the S and P shorts would be my move. We will know which scenario played out by the end of July.
XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 17 days, -11.73% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.6)
*comment: XAU generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom but this time it was just a pause. The recent low ($119) has been breached. The target on the downside is $100-110 but the final low might be sub-$100.
NEW: The price has entered the support zone. A rally back to $120ish wouldn't surprise me in the next two weeks.
ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 17 days,
-17.36% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.95)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration. The support has been broken and the action is bearish. The next target on the downside is $14.82 (done).
NEW: The target has been hit but the fall continues. The next objective target is 11.80ish!?
Bitcoin, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, -6.98% (also, 16-20 to BUY 19986/-0.49% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20084
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but first back to $24-26? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.
COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 16 days, -19.66% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.12)
*comment: The support broke down, and the $30 target has been hit. It will probably mark some kind of bottom. A bounce to $32ish is expected.
GDX,last signal 92-96 SELL, 12 days, -7.82% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $26.65)
*comment: The 92-96 sold again. That is bearish. The support ($30) fell. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25ish.
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.
GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 16 days,
-18.32% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.64)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 didn't hold, a price collapse is probable down to $26-28.
GLD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 9 days, -4.83% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $161.43)
*comment: GLD chart is no more bullish. The $166 support was broken. The next target is $158-160 (spot $1700-1720), probably sooner than I expected. $158-160 must hold for the bull market to stay in its current parameters.
SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 16 days,
-13.14% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.58)
*comment: $19 was taken out. The SKI structure is bearish the target is 18.5ish (done) then sub $17.4ish. It seems it is coming sooner than I thought.
TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 26 days, -3.35% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $113.69)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. It seems the short-term bounce is over. The downside target is still around $110-111.
TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, +0.6% (also, 16-20 to BUY 110.84/-3.15% or lower; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $114.44)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish. 16th Jun might have been a short-term low with the upside target of $114.
NEW: $114 target has been hit and an attempt to take out $117 failed. If the price can rise over $117 and stay there for a couple of days, the bottom might have been in but for now, it seems that 35-39 rejected the move and the trend down will continue at least until the low has been tested again.
UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 146 days, +100.72% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $39.08)
*comment: The trendline ($45) has been broken. The 35-39 sold in a convincing manner. The chart is still in a bullish configuration but this sell signal seems to me like it has marked a long-term top. The top would be confirmed if the 92-96 can sell during the next few weeks.
URA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 15 days, -1.17% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 to NOT SELL 19.04/+2.15% or higher; current $18.64)
*comment: Both 92-96 and 218-222 sold at the same time but now 218-222 bought back. That is combined with a 16-20 buy so it might mark a low but for now, it looks more like a breakdown. The first target is $16. The bulls need a price rise over $21 and then to hold that level.
USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 16 days, -14.97%; run pattern in-progress 1U/2D/-1.08%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.03)
*comment: The 92-96 sold. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish (done) and then sub $8.5ish.
NEW: The first target has been hit. Can it produce at least a short-term bounce ($10ish)?
UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 224 days, +14.91% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.9)
*comment: The double top scenario didn't pan out, instead the resistance was broken to the upside. The next target is $29ish.
NEW: The true bull price appreciation started after the 218-222 buy signal joined the 92-96 buy signal. Today we are exactly at the cycle length 222 days after the trigger. This is something to keep an eye on for a possible top.
Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 14 days, -17.28% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4795)
*comment: The 92-96 buy didn't last for long. $5600-5800 critical area of support has been breached. The next target is $4765.
The long-term support is at $5600-5800 and has been violated in a severe manner. The importance of this support cannot be overexaggerated. It originated from Dec 2016 low so it has been valid for over 7 years. Because of this violation, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is now being recalibrated. The $4765 target is in the crosshairs (it was hit intraday yesterday). I keep adding to long positions under $5000. 30% long now in my trading account.
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