The State Of Indices, 21/7/2022

 SandP 500, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, +4.16% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3959)

*comment: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3737 level is 36 months MAV which represents the bull market support. The price needs to close below this level on a monthly basis for the crash scenario to get activated. In June this level was pierced but the close was above so we will see how the July action goes. I added to my shorts at $3900 and will add on every $200 rise up to $4400.
The downside target, for now, is $3400-3495.

HUI, last signal 92-96 SELL, 24 days, -16.63% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $200.74)
*comment: HUI is in a bearish configuration. The $215-220 support area has been breached and needs to be recovered quickly. Again, I expect a rise at least back to touch/break 16-20 index. If not the next target is $203, then $180ish.
NEW: $203 was hit intraday on Friday the 15th. If this fall continues uninterrupted we are going down to $180. I doubt it will go straight down but I was wrong all the way to here. Everything happened much quicker than I expected. If I was trading HUI I'd be a buyer here, stop loss break of $199.

Nasdaq, 35-39 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11897)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269.
NEW: As I suspected last week Nasdaq started a rally. Target $12500?

Russell 2000, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +7.05% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 to BUY $1864/+2.0% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1827)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit, the next target is $1534.
NEW: As I suspected last week Russell started a rally. Upside target $1900ish.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 172 days, +94.62% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.04%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Yield blasted through the resistance and hit my target of 3.5%. The S and P is on the verge of a meltdown but I think it will need yields back over 3.5%.
NEW: the 35-39 bought back and rose over the long-term resistance line. An interesting setup is developing. Visually the pattern looks like a triple top is in the making but there are two scenarios. The first scenario is confirmation of the triple top which would happen if the next signal is a 16-20 sell followed by a 35-39 sell or just the next signal is a plain 35-39 sell. If this plays out it would be a perfect spot to go long bonds. The second scenario is a breakout which would happen if the next signal is a 16-20 sell which then gets broken to the upside without a 35-39 sell. In this case, doubling up on the S and P shorts would be my move. We will know which scenario played out by the end of July.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 24 days, -15.49% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $103.02)
*comment: XAU is in a bearish configuration. It generated simultaneous 16-20 buy and 92-96 sell signals. Such a combo usually marks a short-term bottom but this time it was just a pause. The recent low ($119) has been breached. The target on the downside is $100-110 but the final low might be sub-$100.
NEW: The lower boundary of the support zone is about to be tested. My projection of a sub-$100 bottom looks probable now.

ASA, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 24 days,
-20.56% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.41)
*comment: It officially is in a bearish configuration. The support has been broken and the action is bearish. The next target on the downside is $14.82 (done).
NEW: The target has been hit but the fall continues. The next objective target is 11.80ish!?

Bitcoin, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, +4.86% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $23578
*comment: BTC hit my second target of $19K. The next target is $13K but first back to $24-26? Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!) but the timeframe for that is probably another 12-18 months.

COPX copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (simultaneous with 16-20 BUY), 23 days, -19.31% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.24)
*comment: The support broke down, and the $30 target has been hit. It will probably mark some kind of a bottom. A bounce to $30-32ish is expected.

GDX,last signal 92-96 SELL, 19 days, -12.63% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $25.26)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The support ($30) fell. The new leg down is underway. The target is $25ish (done).
The support at $25 is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long-term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days,
-19.22% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.3)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The $37 didn't hold, a price collapse is probable down to $26-28.
NEW: The price has entered the support zone. A bounce back to $35-36 is expected during the next few weeks. I'd be a buyer on days when the price dives below $29.

GLD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 16 days, -6.83% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $158.04)
*comment: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The $166 support was broken. The next target is $158-160 (spot $1700-1720 ). $158-160 must hold for the bull market to stay inside its current parameters.
NEW: The target zone was hit ($158.02 GLD, $1692 spot gold intraday). I expect a break of support to run the stops and then a bounce to at least 16-20 sell signal. $170 resistance needs to be overcome for a longer-lasting low to be formed.

SLV, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days,
-15.07% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.19)
*comment: $19 was taken out. The SKI structure is bearish the target is 18.5ish (done) then sub $17.4ish (done).
NEW: The second target has been hit. The support zone should provide a bounce at least back to $19.

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 33 days, -2.87% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $114.25)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The downside target is still around $110-111 but recent action suggests there might be a rally soon. Let's see if there is enough energy to push the price up to a new 16-20 sell signal and potentially lock in a bottom.

TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 10 days, +0.75% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $114.61)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The long-term target is $100ish.
NEW: $114 target has been hit and an attempt to take out $117 failed. If the price can rise over $117 and stay there for a couple of days, the bottom might have been in but for now, it seems that 35-39 rejected the move and the trend down will continue at least until the low has been tested again.

UCO, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $38.25)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market finally ended. The SKI structure is now bearish. A rise to $40-42 will make me consider a short position. The downside target is $22ish but $32 needs to be broken first which is not going to be easy.

URA, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.27)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target is $16. The bulls need a price rise over $21 and then to hold that level.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 23 days, -16.95%; run pattern in-progress 2U/1D/-1.78%perday; xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.82)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The recent correction reached $10.28 the mega important level marked at the 2016 top and now this support has been broken. The first target on the downside is 9.25ish (done) and then sub $8.5ish.
NEW: The first target has been hit. I again expect a bounce to at least 10-10.2 to test the breakdown level. So far it is not happening, the fall towards the $8.5 target continues.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 231 days, +13.72% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.6)
*comment: The double top scenario didn't pan out, instead the resistance was broken to the upside. The next target is $29ish (done).
NEW: The $29 target has been hit. I expect a correction down to touch/break 16-20 index in the next few weeks. It is too early to tell but in hindsight, the last five days might have marked a significant top.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 21 days, -16.25% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4855)
*comment: The 92-96 buy didn't last for long. $5600-5800 critical area of support has been breached. The next target is $4765 (done).
The long-term support is at $5600-5800 and has been violated in a severe manner. Because of this, the whole bull market from 2015 to 2020 is now being recalibrated. The $4765 target has been hit for five days in a row and provided firm support every time. I keep adding to long positions under $5000. I am back from 60% to 50% long since I sold some positions for profit taking. Will add again on down days, especially if we dive under $4700. I expect a bounce to $5400-5600 where I will sell all or part of my new acquisitions.