USERX

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 17 days, +0.21%; run pattern in-progress 2U/1D/-2.22%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 crossed to SELL; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $9.71)

*comment/Jun13: The USERX price keeps oscillating around the critical $10.28 level (2016 top). If we have reached the support $9.5 shouldn't be exceeded to the downside but if it does there is strong support in the $8.75-9.0 area. I wouldn't like to see the price going to that level because it will significantly damage the SKI structure. On the other side breaking through the $10.28 level will take us back to the bulls' territory.  

NEW/Jun23: 218-222 sold. Normally I would say this should lead to a drop to $8.8 but considering daily oversold conditions and how the 218-222 buy signal had inverted I think this could be at least a short-term bottom. If the price can hold above $9.5ish till July 92-96/218-222 double buy signal will be generated. Let's see if the drop stops here. $8.8ish is where the very long-term support lies. This support is rising and will reach $9ish by September so we are playing with critical levels here. 

NEW/28Jun: Support is slowly breaking down. 881-885 index is breaking to BUY (2 days to go). $8.8ish is the target. The very long-term support will likely be tested. 

NEW/Jun29: 881-885 is about to buy probably in the next 2 days. Based on the ASA behaviour and divergence with the gold today, I think we started the process of putting in a medium-term bottom. 

NEW/Jun30: It is becoming very likely that this week we will get three buy signals 881-885/92-96/218-222. If we can then rise over $10.28 it would be extremely bullish. Let's see what happens.

NEW/July10: All three buy signals mentioned earlier have been generated. This likely indicates a short-term bottom. However, for a definitive bottom, we need a 35-39 buy signal before a potential 92-96 sell signal. Additionally, a price increase above the critical level of $10.28 is crucial. If this occurs and the price remains steady around $10.28 for about a month, the entire scenario will transition into a genuine bull market. Should the 92-96 sell signal occur before the 35-39 buy signal, the validity of the bottom narrative becomes uncertain, and the target of $8.8 will be revisited and tested again. To maintain the bottom thesis, the first step is to generate the 35-39 buy signal by the end of July, which necessitates a price rise above approximately $10.

NEW/July12: USERX didn't waste time and closed above $10 quickly, now we need to leave that $10.28 behind and move away from a possible 92-96 sell signal. The price is arriving at the major resistance area ($10.28-10.71) with the technicals stretched out so a failure to move above it in the next few weeks will be a bearish sign.    

NEW/Jul18: Since the generation of the 35-39 buy signal two days ago, we have witnessed the first instance of the price closing above the crucial level of $10.28 today. This development indicates a bullish outlook, but more days above $10.28 are needed to validate the trend.

NEW/Jul24: USERX seems to be facing difficulty again in moving beyond the $10.28 level. There is a limited timeframe of one week to initiate an upward move; otherwise, the 92-96 index will begin to shift towards a sell signal.

NEW/Jul28: Once again, the inability to maintain above the pivotal $10.28 level (7 days ago) signaled weakness in the gold market. USERX may encounter a 35-39 sell signal on Monday, which would be a major concern if triggered. To prevent this, the price needs a rapid rise above $9.9, then further beyond $9.99. Although it's not a large task, it seems unlikely due to the current lack of momentum. Even if this event occurs, the price must exceed $10.28 to genuinely preserve the bullish potential of the current setup. If the situation remains unchanged and the 92-96 index sells, the potential downside target lies between $8.8 and $9, which aligns with the support area of the uptrend dating back to the 2016 low. This area must hold; otherwise, the gold bull market could confront substantial challenges.

NEW/Jul31: The initial move to prevent a 35-39 sell signal was made today, but the price must continue to rise. Keep in mind, for any bullish scenario to remain viable, the price needs to consolidate above $10.28.

NEW/Aug01: The 35-39 index has generated a sell signal, which is bearish, and the 92-96 index is trending towards a sell signal. The bearish aspects of the current setup are well established, so let's outline a potential bullish scenario—one that could be incredibly bullish. If the current drop continues unbroken for another 4 days, with an average decrease of over 2%, we could hit the exact long-term support of $8.8. This could produce a 'life run' chart pattern and generate a simultaneous 92-96 sell signal and 16-20 buy signal (usually marking bottoms), all in line with the seasonal bottom.

NEW/Aug02: Let's clarify both bearish and bullish arguments for this critical juncture:

Bearish Arguments: The 35-39 index has sold, and the 92-96 is about to sell, leading to a double sell. These two signals will be accompanied by a 16-20 buy, which will coincide with the 92-96 sell, potentially avoiding a triple sell pattern that would arise if the 16-20 buy followed the 92-96 sell. All these signals come after the 2-down-5-up-3-down run pattern that marked the July peak, and we know such patterns indicate significant tops or bottoms. The July peak occurred precisely while the price rise was rejected at the $10.28 resistance, which has been a crucial decision point for the past decade, every major move started or finished in this area. The spot gold chart in both USD and AUD has generated a 92-96 sell signal. The dollar is striving to break through resistance, and the 10-year yield is in a bull market.

Bullish Arguments: If the current downward trend continues uninterrupted for three more days, it will result in a 'life run' chart pattern, potentially counteracting the impact of the July 2-down-5-up-3-down pattern. The price remains above the major long-term support level of $8.8, which successfully held during the low in October 2022. The simultaneous occurrence of a 92-96 sell and a 16-20 buy often marks lows, at least in the short term. August is typically a time for lows in the gold market. Furthermore, Australian gold stocks have been outperforming their U.S. counterparts.

When these perspectives are weighed together, the scales seem to tip in favour of the bears. However, as always, the final decision rests with the market. Keep in mind the important levels are $10.28 and $ 8.8. I am 35% long in my trading account.