The State Of Indices

SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 138 days, +10.57% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4489)

*Comment/Jun13: SandP is in a true bull configuration. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an existing 92-96 true bull signal. The bullishness has been confirmed with the price rising over $4200. The 36-month support held so technically everything is bullish. 

NEW/Aug10: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal within the current true-bull market. Typically, such a signal would be a buying opportunity, but the market's action appears tepid to me. I anticipate we'll proceed at least until the 35-39 index generates a sell signal in the $4350-4400 range.

HUI, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, -1.05% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $225.07)

*comment/Aug03: The HUI index is in a bearish configuration, with the only upside being that the price remains above the supportive rising trendline dating back to the low of September 2022. To maintain this supportive trendline, the price needs to stay above the $220 mark. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's 92-96 sell signal indicates a low. In the shorter timeframe, the HUI is following a bearish descending channel since the peak in May 2023. This descending channel's lower boundary approximates to around $210, which is therefore a presumed target for the current move.

$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 137 days, +24.98% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY > to SELL 14688/-3.4% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $15205)

*comment/Apr19: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39, 92-96 and 218-222 indexes are on buy signals. Everything is lined up in a bullish order.

NEW/Aug04: It appears that NDX hit some kind of a top around $16K.  If a correction begins, the initial target is likely the $14.5K zone.

NEW/Aug10: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal, yet I maintain my belief that a correction is underway. The downside target is $14.5K.

$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, on path, XXed, 49 days, +6.3% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $1920)

*comment/Jul19: The Russell chart generated a triple buy signal 16-20/218-222/35-39 in June and now this signal is joined by a 92-96 buy signal. The SKI structure is great and everything is aligned in a bullish manner. The bullish target is around $2200.

NEW/Aug10: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal. I think that a correction is underway. The downside target is $1880.

$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days, +5.42% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.18%)

*comment/Jul28: The 10-year yield (10yy) has reentered a true bull market. Although the SKI structure is solid, the buy signal was triggered below the major resistance level, requiring a rise above that level for validation. Monitoring this chart is crucial, as a surge above 4% might trigger turbulence in the broader markets including the gold market.

NEW/Aug01: Today's surge of the 10-year yield (10yy) above 4% undoubtedly stirred the gold market. It appears that the 10yy target is the October high of 4.29%, or even 5.3% if this truly is a bull market. While gold may face challenges if this continues, a correction in the broader market shouldn't be ruled out too.

NEW/Aug03: The 10-year yield continues to spike up and might soon reach the recent top at 4.29% (and probably go beyond). It's intriguing when the equity market will take notice of this.

NEW/Aug08: A short-term peak was reached at 4.2%, with yields declining since. This aligns with my theory that a surge beyond the key resistance range (4.1%-4.3%) is essential for the 92-96 buy signal confirmation. We're now back below this resistance. If this recent high persists, a 35-39 sell signal will likely emerge, possibly indicating that the peak has been established.

XAU, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 5 days, -0.68% (after double SELL 92-96/35-39) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $117.6)

*comment/Aug04: The XAU index is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's 92-96 sell signal indicates a low. Since the peak in April 2023 the price has been following a bearish descending channel. The channel's bottom is currently close to the $110-112 area, setting a potential target for the ongoing trend. A price surge above $130, sustained for a significant period, could revert the pattern to bullish.

NEW/Aug07: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal today, following the 92-96/35-39 double sell initiated yesterday. The signal is xxed, making it risky to buy.

ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, -0.67% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 14.92/+0.88 or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $14.79)

*comment/Aug04: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its May 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the July 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $15.5) and the ascending channel's bottom (around $15). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $13 becomes the target. Surpassing $15.5 and maintaining it (35-39 buy signal) would revert the trend to bullish.

NEW/Aug10: Today's movement was bearish. The price opened higher, reaching the $15.5 resistance before reversing and closing in the red, nearly 2% below yesterday's close. I expect more downside pressure.

NEW/Aug14: The ASA price rise continues to encounter resistance, and each downward movement surpasses the preceding upward one. The prevailing trend still indicates a downward pressure. A quick ascent above $15.5 is required to alleviate this pressure. A 35-39 buy signal could signal an increasing likelihood of such an occurrence.

BITCOIN, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 22 days, +0.8% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $29410

*comment/June 13: BTC is in a bullish configuration. Support is around 25K. If 30Kish can be broken through then the target is 40K. It needs to happen before the end of summer or the bull market will end.

NEW/Jun22: 35-39 buy and 16-20 sell signals were generated today. Typically these kinds of simultaneous signals would mark the top but given the momentum and the SKI structure, it might be a breakout. 30K resistance held and it needs to be broken through to confirm the bullish outcome. 

NEW/Jun23: Resistance still holding but barely. 

NEW/Jul18: 92-96 sold but the SKI structure is such that it can buy back quickly for a true bull signal. If the decline continues down to 25K the 35-39 will sell for a double sell and bearishness. 

NEW/Jul24: 92-96 true buy signal has been generated but again a quick rise is needed to avoid an instant sell signal.

NEW/Aug14: The 92-96 true buy signal has managed to hold its ground for the time being. Overcoming the $32K barrier remains essential for confirming this signal.

COPX (copper miners ETF), 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $37.87

*comment/Jul18: COPX is currently in a bullish constellation, with an ongoing consolidation pattern that dates back to 2021. The price mostly fluctuates between $34 and $42, occasionally venturing to $28 and $47. The $40-$42 range remains a significant resistance level. While the overall market is experiencing a breakout, copper is lagging behind, which is not a bullish sign as copper is typically expected to lead. However, the SKI indices indicate a potential upward resolution, but it is necessary to monitor the situation closely and observe how it unfolds.

NEW/Jul25: We're nearing the $42 resistance once more, with momentum favouring the upside. If the price can maintain around this level for several days, there's a good chance we'll see another surge towards $47.

NEW/Aug10: The rise was halted once more at the $42 resistance. The price is now retreating to test the support, currently situated around $37. Multiple signals are anticipated over the next 4 weeks. Clearly, a pivotal moment is approaching, and a significant move is imminent.

DXY (dollar index), 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, xxed (double buy with 92-96) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 crossed to BUY > to SELL 101.57/-1.55% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $103.17)

*comment/Jul18: DXY is currently in a bearish constellation, with the price following a downtrend. It has now reached a crucial support zone that dates back to the lows of 2011. This support level resides in the range of $98-99, and if it is breached, it could lead to a significant breakdown in the dollar chart. While a short-term breakdown is not anticipated, it remains important to observe the developments over the next few months.

NEW/Aug01: As anticipated, the dollar rebounded from the $99 support zone back to the resistance zone around $102-103. It remains to be seen whether there's enough momentum for a breakthrough. However, if the 10-year yield (10yy) continues its upward surge, a breakthrough could be likely.

NEW/Aug04: The 16-20 sold today as the price sharply reversed upon reaching the resistance line. Though a sustained push beyond this resistance might signal bullish momentum, potentially leading to a double 35-30/92-96 buy, the recent prolonged rally and current bearish posture suggest today's signal likely marks a temporary top. If, from here, the price aligns with the descending resistance, the 16-20 index may buy by mid-August, prepping for a potential bullish triple buy. If this triple buy doesn't materialize and the price stays below $99, anticipate further descent.

NEW/Aug11: 35-39 crossed to BUY and most probably 92-96 will do the same tomorrow. This supports the ongoing bullish sentiment in the 10-year treasury yield (10yy) and, in contrast, reflects the weakening gold market. However, as with all technical signals, persistence over several days is essential for confirmation.

NEW/Aug14: 92-96 index bought, pairing with the 35-39 for a double buy signal. It's vital the price remains near this mark or moves up; otherwise, both indices might sell quickly. What happens here is important for the gold market.

GDX, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, -1.3% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $28.95)

*comment/Aug04: GDX is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its May 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the September 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $31.5) and the ascending channel's bottom (around $30). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $26.5-27.0 becomes the target. Surpassing $32ish and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.

GDXJ, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, -1.36% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $34.9)

*comment/Aug04: GDXJ is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its April 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $37) and the ascending channel's bottom (around 34.5). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $32.0 becomes the target. Surpassing $37ish and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.

GLD, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 4 days, -0.41% (after double SELL 35-39/92-96) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $177.06)

*comment/Aug04: GLD displays a bearish constellation. Although the 92-96 index sold today, the SKI structure for gold differs somewhat from that of gold stocks. While gold stocks' long indices are mixed, gold's are bullish. The triple buy signal initiated in early March (218-222/439-443/660-664) remains active. Additionally, traditional technical indicators remain long-term bullish for gold (price above 200-day MAV), whereas they show deterioration for the stocks. To revert to a bullish trend for gold, it only needs to surpass the resistance at $181-184 ($1960-1980) and maintain that level (35-39 buy) long enough for the 92-96 index to buy back. If the 92-96's sell signal marks the beginning of a new decline, significant support is found within the $172-175 range. This support, dating back to the 2018 low, is critical for the bull market's continuation.

SLV, last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, -0.53% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $20.72)

*comment/Aug14: The SLV chart is in a bearish configuration. Both 92-96 and 35-39 indices sold, yet the price hasn't exited the $21-24 trading range since its May peak. It's now nearing the $21 support. If the weakness persists, targets are roughly $19.5-20.0 ($21.5-22 spot) followed by $18.5 ($19.89 spot). However, a buy signal from the 35-39 index could indicate a possible retest of resistance at $24 ($26 spot).

TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed(true), 5 days, -0.91% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $105.57)

*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a slightly falling trading channel (bullish). $105-106 is very firm support and I don't expect it to be broken. If it does that might cause turmoil in the gold market.   

NEW/July19: The 92-96 signal has generated an xxed JPOT buy signal. However, the SKI structure is currently weak, making it unlikely for this signal to survive the next few weeks. Nevertheless, if the next signal is a 35-39 buy, it could create a bullish setup capable of transforming the chart into a bullish breakout. The recent bottoming pattern around $105 and the existing bullish momentum make this scenario quite probable.

NEW/Jul28: So the 92-96 sold, as expected. The bearishness continues. Seems like the major support around $104-105 will be tested again.

NEW/Aug04: The price's drop to the significant support zone near $105 triggered a sharp surge, mirroring reactions in July, March, and October 2022. This hints at a potential bottom, though confirmation is essential.

NEW/Aug10: There's been no continuation from the August 4th movement. The low is not confirmed yet but it is still intact.

TLT, last signal 92-96 SELL (double SELL with 35-39), 13 days, -4.17% (also, 16-20 on  BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $95.16)

*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a trading channel ($101-$109). $101 is firm support; if broken down, it could signal a spike in 10yy above 3.8%-4%. That might start a correction in NASDAQ and S&P 500.    

NEW/Jun22: There is a setup for a triple buy signal at the beginning of July. The price needs to be around $100 at that time.

NEW/July10: The support at $98.88 is being challenged in a manner that looks like a breakdown. The 10yy is at 4% and any further rise will confirm the breakdown of the TLT chart. A  TLT price turnaround here will produce a triple buy signal that I explained above. Let's see what happens.

NEW/Jul18: A triple buy scenario has occurred, combining the 35-39 buy, 92-96 buy, and 16-20 buy signals. However, the SKI structure poses a threat to the sustainability of these buy signals. It is highly possible for the situation to transition rapidly into a double sell, which aligns more favourably with the SKI structure. To shift my outlook to bullish, it is crucial for the price to swiftly exceed $104 and maintain that level (10yy at 3.4%) for a few consecutive days. Currently, I am just observing.

NEW/Jul25: The 92-96 index generated a sell signal, concluding the triple buy as anticipated. If this downtrend persists, it's likely to exert downward pressure on the gold price.

NEW/Jul26: The 35-39 index has sold, forming a double sell signal with the 92-96 index. Despite this, support around $99 remains intact, but a retest appears likely.

NEW/Aug01: We're currently breaching the support at $98. Having broken the March and July lows, the next target is $92. This implies a 10-year yield (10yy) of around 4.3%, spelling trouble for all markets except the dollar.

UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 26 days, +24.5% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $31.05)

*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.

URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 16-20 SELL (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 16 days, +3.71% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $22.65)

*comment/Jun13: URA finally broke out of the bullish contracting triangle that dates back to the top of 2021. If it is not a fakeout breakout a new 92-96 true bull buy signal will be generated by the end of June. $23 is the level to watch.

NEW/July10: Today the price is engaged with all indexes and their back prices. That is the sign that we have entered the decision time for the U stocks. We will know soon if the recent spike-up was a fake breakout or not.  

NEW/July12: After 16-20 buy a 92-96 buy signal was generated for a double buy. Looks good but I still want to see that $23 resistance cleared before I do anything.

NEW/Aug04: The 218-222 buy signal was triggered today, aligning with the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. The outlook appears bullish, yet the $23 resistance remains intact.

NEW/Aug10: I've observed that the Uranium AUD price is undergoing a breakout, and a similar trend is emerging among the Aussie juniors. While I've maintained a core position for the past two years, I'm now planning to increase my investment.

NEW/Aug11: I went long on BMN.ax and BOE.ax on Friday and might add more today. Uranium stocks (core and trading) comprise 25% of my current portfolio. I'll keep the stops relaxed for now.

USERX, last signal 92-96 SELL; 6 days, -3.27%, run pattern in-progress 1U/1D/-1.08%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $9.17)

*comment/Aug04: The 92-96 index generated a sell signal, therefore, changing the SKI structure to bearish. The 16-20 generated a buy signal at the same time. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its peak in April 2023, the price has followed a bearish descending channel. Yet, it also tracks a bullish ascending channel originating from July 2022. The price now sits on the lower boundary between the descending channel's resistance (around $10.28) and the ascending channel's support (around $9.5). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $8.8 becomes the target. This area, if tested, must hold because that is the bull market trending support dating back to the 2016(!) low. Surpassing $10.28 and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.

NEW/Aug08: The run pattern has reverted to 2-up, 2-down, reintroducing the potential for a life run pattern. However, the average down day is currently too weak. It would be bullish to persist in this downward trajectory towards the low, even if the average down day doesn't satisfy the life run criteria. Conversely, if there's a reversal leading to a 35-39 index buy, it would represent a 16-20/35-39 JPOT double buy, possibly signalling a bottom.

NEW/Aug10: Today's new low in USERX, combined with activity in ASA, the dollar, and TLT, appears unfavourable for bulls. It seems the $8.8 test is now imminent.

XGD.AX, Australian gold index, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $6613)

*comment/Aug14: The XGD chart configuration is bearish while the overall outlook remains ambiguous. The $6200 support dating back from 2015 low and the 200-day MAV still hold. The 881-885 index bought 5 days ago, hinting at a potential bottom. If a 35-39 buy signal emerges, I might repurchase what I recently sold. If the decline persists, I'll consider buying around $6100-6200 with tight stops. 35% long.