SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 131 days, +10.87% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4501)
*Comment/Jun13: SandP is in a true bull configuration. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an existing 92-96 true bull signal. The bullishness has been confirmed with the price rising over $4200. The 36-month support held so technically everything is bullish.
HUI, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 234.45/+3.62% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > to BUY 245.05/+8.3% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $226.26)
*comment/Aug03: The HUI index is in a bearish configuration, with the only upside being that the price remains above the supportive rising trendline dating back to the low of September 2022. To maintain this supportive trendline, the price needs to stay above the $220 mark. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's 92-96 sell signal indicates a low. In the shorter timeframe, the HUI is following a bearish descending channel since the peak in May 2023. At present, this descending channel's lower boundary approximates to around $210, which is therefore presumed target for the current move.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 130 days, +26.19% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $15353)
*comment/Apr19: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39, 92-96 and 218-222 indexes are on buy signals. Everything is lined up in a bullish order.
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 35-39 BUY, on path, XXed, 42 days, +8.56% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $1961)
*comment/Jul19: The Russell chart generated a triple buy signal 16-20/218-222/35-39 in June and now this signal is joined by a 92-96 buy signal. The SKI structure is great and everything is aligned in a bullish manner. The bullish target is around $2200.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days, +5.54% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.19%)
*comment/Jul28: The 10-year yield (10yy) has reentered a true bull market. Although the SKI structure is solid, the buy signal was triggered below the major resistance level, requiring a rise above that level for validation. Monitoring this chart is crucial, as a surge above 4% might trigger turbulence in the broader markets including the gold market.
NEW/Aug01: Today's surge of the 10-year yield (10yy) above 4% undoubtedly stirred the gold market. It appears that the 10yy target is the October high of 4.29%, or even 5.3% if this truly is a bull market. While gold may face challenges if this continues, a correction in the broader market shouldn't be ruled out too.
NEW/Aug03: The 10-year yield continues to spike up and will soon reach the recent top at 4.29% (and probably go beyond). It's intriguing when the equity market will take notice of this.
XAU, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 18 days, -1.81% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 123.87/+4.58% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $118.45)
*comment/July10: XAU is in a bullish configuration but the SKI structure is not yet fully developed in a bullish order. For this to happen a new 35-39 buy signal is needed before a 92-96 sell signal. A rise over the $140 area is also needed (before the middle of August) for the 92-96 buy signal to stay alive and set the stage for real bullishness (or bearishness) later this year. $160 is the long-term resistance. The current support is around $110 and rising.
NEW/Jul18: 35-39 bought which is bullish. The SKI structure is mixed, good for the 35-39 buy signal but not so good for the 92-96 buy signal. In the short term, the target is around $135. However, it is crucial for the price to rise further above this level before mid-August to avoid triggering the 92-96 sell signal.
NEW/Jul28: The 35-39 index is on the brink of generating a sell signal, which could be averted with a minor price increase on Monday. This is crucial because a 35-39 sell signal before a 92-96 sell will significantly alter the market dynamic (bearish).
NEW/Aug01: The 35-39 index generated a sell signal, and the 92-96 index is on the brink of selling. It appears that the target might be the March low of approximately $110.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 19 days, -2.32% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 15.64/+6.11% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 15.64/+6.11% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $14.74)
*comment/July10: ASA is in a bullish configuration but the SKI structure is not yet fully developed in a bullish order. Yesterday's 92-96 and today's 218-222 buy signal make up a double buy that is probably marking a low. For a fully bullish SKI structure to develop the price needs to generate a 35-39 buy signal before it does a potential 92-96 sell signal. To avoid the 92-96 sell signal a rise over the $17.5 area is required (by the middle of August). If the 35-39 buy signal comes before the 92-96 buy it will create the potential to transform this market into a true bull configuration (sometime in September). However, if the 92-96 sell signal is triggered before the 35-39 buy signal, it would initiate a decline towards $12 in the near future.
NEW/Jul24: A 35-39 buy signal has been generated, but to avoid an immediate sell signal, a quick price surge is required. Maintaining the bullish potential relies on the price reaching and staying at $16.5 or above. However, if the $15 level is lost, it could trigger a sell signal for the 92-96 index, indicating bearishness and potentially leading to a quick drop down to the $13.5 level.
NEW/Jul26: The 35-39 index generated a sell signal, though it can revert to a buy with a slight increase tomorrow. This isn't a major concern, as long as the price remains above $15.
NEW/Jul28: I'm revising my prior remark: the 35-39 sell signal is indeed a serious concern. It needs to revert to a buy before a 92-96 sell signal emerges. This reversal can be achieved with a swift increase above $15.5, which, although not too hard, doesn't seem likely at the moment.
NEW/Aug01: The price advance was once again rejected at $15.5, confirming the validity of the 35-39 sell signal. With the 92-96 index nearing a sell signal, the overall outlook isn't optimistic. If the 92-96 index sells (which is highly likely), the target falls within the $12.5-13.0 range.
BITCOIN, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, +0.34% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY > to SELL 28086/-4.07% or lower; 218-222 on BUY; current $29278
*comment/June 13: BTC is in a bullish configuration. Support is around 25K. If 30Kish can be broken through then the target is 40K. It needs to happen before the end of summer or the bull market will end.
NEW/Jun22: 35-39 buy and 16-20 sell signals were generated today. Typically these kinds of simultaneous signals would mark the top but given the momentum and the SKI structure, it might be a breakout. 30K resistance held and it needs to be broken through to confirm the bullish outcome.
NEW/Jun23: Resistance still holding but barely.
NEW/Jul18: 92-96 sold but the SKI structure is such that it can buy back quickly for a true bull signal. If the decline continues down to 25K the 35-39 will sell for a double sell and bearishness.
NEW/Jul24: 92-96 true buy signal has been generated but again a quick rise is needed to avoid an instant sell signal.
COPX (copper miners ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 17 days, +1.44% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $40.08
*comment/Jul18: COPX is currently in a bullish constellation, with an ongoing consolidation pattern that dates back to 2021. The price mostly fluctuates between $34 and $42, occasionally venturing to $28 and $47. The $40-$42 range remains a significant resistance level. While the overall market is experiencing a breakout, copper is lagging behind, which is not a bullish sign as copper is typically expected to lead. However, the SKI indices indicate a potential upward resolution, but it is necessary to monitor the situation closely and observe how it unfolds.
NEW/Jul25: We're nearing the $42 resistance once more, with momentum favouring the upside. If the price can maintain around this level for several days, there's a good chance we'll see another surge towards $47.
DXY (dollar index), last signal 35-39 SELL (double SELL with 92-96), 17 days, +1.92% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to NOT SELL 101.94/-0.54% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.49)
*comment/Jul18: DXY is currently in a bearish constellation, with the price following a downtrend. It has now reached a crucial support zone that dates back to the lows of 2011. This support level resides in the range of $98-99, and if it is breached, it could lead to a significant breakdown in the dollar chart. While a short-term breakdown is not anticipated, it remains important to observe the developments over the next few months.
NEW/Aug01: As anticipated, the dollar rebounded from the $99 support zone back to the resistance zone around $102-103. It remains to be seen whether there's enough momentum for a breakthrough. However, if the 10-year yield (10yy) continues its upward surge, a breakthrough could be likely.
GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 23 days, -4.59% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 30.25/+3.31% or higher; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 31.11/+6.25% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.28)
*comment/July10: GDX is presently in a bullish configuration; however, a further price increase is required to align all indices bullishly. Within the next four weeks, a rally back to $35 is necessary to sustain the signal. Strengthening the SKI structure entails surpassing the 2016 top of $31.79 and subsequently generating a 35-39 buy signal. If the 35-39 signal is generated and the price manages to maintain levels above the 2016 top until the beginning of September, the entire setup will transform into a true bull configuration.
NEW/Jul18: the 35-39 buy signal has been generated, which is considered bullish. However, the SKI structure remains mixed, favouring the 35-39 buy signal but not providing strong support for the 92-96 buy signal. The short-term target resides within the $34-35 range, but to avoid the 92-96 sell signal before mid-August, the price needs to rise further above this zone.
NEW/Jul28: The 35-39 index buy signal marked the top before moving to a sell today, indicating bearish momentum. A swift ascent above $30.89 could counteract this, but it seems unlikely. Still bullish SKI structure is deteriorating, and if the 92-96 index sells, we might aim for a $27 target.
NEW/Aug03: There's a high probability that tomorrow the 92-96 will sell, and the 16-20 will buy.
GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 21 days, +2.14% (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 36.15/+2.55% or higher; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 36.96/+4.85% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $35.25)
*comment/July10: GDXJ is in a bullish configuration but the price needs further rise to align all indices in a bullish manner. The price will need to rally back to $42ish during the next four weeks in order to sustain the signal. To strengthen the SKI structure the first necessary move should be a rise to above the 35-39 index and consequently generate a 35-39 buy signal. After that, if the price can hold above $38ish till the beginning of October the whole setup will transform into a true bull configuration.
NEW/July17: The 35-39 index generated a buy signal, as required. Now, the price needs to hold onto this buy signal and rise over the $40-42 area before the middle of August to avoid a 92-96 sell signal.
NEW/Jul28: The 35-39 index buy signal marked the top before moving to a sell today, indicating bearish momentum. A swift ascent above $37.18 could counteract this, but it seems unlikely. Still bullish SKI structure is deteriorating, and if the 92-96 index sells, we might aim for a $29-30 target.
NEW/Aug03: There's a high probability that tomorrow the 92-96 will sell, and the 16-20 will buy.
GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, -0.03% (while 92-96 is on an off-path xxed BUY signal) (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 183.84/+2.4% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $179.54)
*comment/Jun13: The GLD chart structure is still bullish. A quadruple buy signal (3 long-term signals + 35-39) has been generated inside an existing 92-96 buy signal. The 35-39 index, which was on the path of trades, then sold so the path is now clear but the 92-96 index is still on a buy signal hence the bullish configuration. The current price level ($180) must hold or the 92-96 index will sell by mid-July/beginning of August. I have a feeling that there is one more visit to $170-175 ($1850-1880 spot) coming to test the support. If it does the whole configuration will be reset and we will have new signals by September. Short-term bullishness will return if the 35-39 index buys back (above $185) before the 92-96 buy signal ends. The very long-term bullishness is intact (218-222, 439-443).
NEW/Jun29: At the open, we touched the $170-175 area of support (mentioned above) and then rallied all day. Feels like it is time to start carving the bottom of this correction.
NEW/July10: $175 support is holding, the gold stocks are leading up and the gold juniors are outperforming. This behaviour is typically presented around bottoms. Let's see if we can get enough of a bounce to prevent the 92-96 buy signal from ending. Some bullish but also bearish scenarios are shaping up during the next 2 months. I'll present them when they become probable.
NEW/July14: GLD is struggling at $181 level ($1960 spot) which I do not like. If it fails here like it did in February a nasty triple top head and shoulders pattern will appear and possibly sell the 92-96 at the same time. This chart needs to be monitored closely. A 35-39 buy signal is required quickly for bulls to stay in charge (short-term).
NEW/Jul18: Finally, we've closed above $181. If we have two more closures above this level, the 35-39 index will generate a buy signal. However, we're entering a high-resistance zone. If the surge isn't robust enough, it could terminate the 92-96 buy signal. Conversely, if the 92-96 index sells but prices maintain buoyancy, we could transition into a genuine bull market, sometime in September.
NEW/Jul24: Falling again back to $181 level ($1960 spot) is not what we wanted here. The short-term action is bearish. Everything feels like Gold wants to revisit the $175 ($1890) area. Hopefully not because that would end the 92-96 index buy signal. To avoid such a scenario a quick rise is needed back above $184 ($1980).
NEW/Jul28: The 35-39 index generated a sell signal. Failure to maintain above $181-182 caused the emergence of a potential head and shoulders top pattern (right shoulder). If the 92-96 index sells soon, we might see this bearish trend leading to testing the March low ($175.79; $1892 spot) and the long-term trend support around $172 ($1870 spot). Should that level fail to hold, the gold market may face major difficulties. To avert these potential issues, the price needs to rapidly ascend above $184 ($1980-1990 spot)— currently, this appears unlikely.
NEW/Jul31: The 35-39 index bought back, though it could quickly sell again tomorrow. Moreover, the 92-96 index is already breaking towards a sell signal. Only a swift leap back above $184 ($1980) can reorient this chart towards a potentially bullish configuration.
NEW/Aug01: The 35-39 index sold immediately. Combined with another dismissal at $181 and a weakening 92-96 buy signal, the overall impression is bearish. The first target is $175, but we might extend further to test the ultimate support at $170.
NEW/Aug03: There's a high probability that tomorrow the 92-96 will sell to form a 35-39/92-96 double sell signal.
SLV, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, XXed, 37 days, -2.04% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > to NOT SELL 21.98/+1.62% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $21.63)
*comment/Jun13: The SLV chart constellation is neutral. The 35-39 is on a sell signal and the 92-96 is on a buy but it is all happening inside a trading range ($21-24) that needs to be broken for the setup to turn bullish or bearish.
NEW/Jun29: Support at $21 is being tested again.
NEW/July12: The support at $21 has held, now we are heading toward $23.5 to test the resistance. Long-term silver hasn't broken out yet.
NEW/July14: 35-39 bought and 16-20 sold, $23.5 is still the target.
TIP, last signal 16-20 SELL (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 105.99/+0.51% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $105.45)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a slightly falling trading channel (bullish). $105-106 is very firm support and I don't expect it to be broken. If it does that might cause turmoil in the gold market.
NEW/July19: The 92-96 signal has generated an xxed JPOT buy signal. However, the SKI structure is currently weak, making it unlikely for this signal to survive the next few weeks. Nevertheless, if the next signal is a 35-39 buy, it could create a bullish setup capable of transforming the chart into a bullish breakout. The recent bottoming pattern around $105 and the existing bullish momentum make this scenario quite probable.
NEW/Jul28: So the 92-96 sold, as expected. The bearishness continues. Seems like the major support around $104-105 will be tested again.
TLT, last signal 92-96 SELL (double SELL with 35-39), 7 days, -6.34% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $94.85)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a trading channel ($101-$109). $101 is firm support; if broken down, it could signal a spike in 10yy above 3.8%-4%. That might start a correction in NASDAQ and S&P 500.
NEW/Jun22: There is a setup for a triple buy signal at the beginning of July. The price needs to be around $100 at that time.
NEW/July10: The support at $98.88 is being challenged in a manner that looks like a breakdown. The 10yy is at 4% and any further rise will confirm the breakdown of the TLT chart. A TLT price turnaround here will produce a triple buy signal that I explained above. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Jul18: A triple buy scenario has occurred, combining the 35-39 buy, 92-96 buy, and 16-20 buy signals. However, the SKI structure poses a threat to the sustainability of these buy signals. It is highly possible for the situation to transition rapidly into a double sell, which aligns more favourably with the SKI structure. To shift my outlook to bullish, it is crucial for the price to swiftly exceed $104 and maintain that level (10yy at 3.4%) for a few consecutive days. Currently, I am just observing.
NEW/Jul25: The 92-96 index generated a sell signal, concluding the triple buy as anticipated. If this downtrend persists, it's likely to exert downward pressure on the gold price.
NEW/Jul26: The 35-39 index has sold, forming a double sell signal with the 92-96 index. Despite this, support around $99 remains intact, but a retest appears likely.
NEW/Aug01: We're currently breaching the support at $98. Having broken the March and July lows, the next target is $92. This implies a 10-year yield (10yy) of around 4.3%, spelling trouble for all markets except the dollar.
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 19 days, +22.49% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL > breaking to BUY; current $30.55)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration but it is refusing to make a decisive move up or down. The pressure is to the downside. The support is around $21 and if it breaks down the target will be in the $15-16 range.
NEW/28Jun: The next two weeks will be hard to avoid a breakdown or breakout. The resistance is around $25. If broken through I'll probably go long. The $21 support is still holding.
NEW/July10: Here we go again knocking at $25 resistance. Simultaneous 16-20 sell and 35-39 buy signals were generated which normally mark tops but in this particular case, I'll wait and see how the situation develops. The 200 MAV is above at $27.43. The 92-96 index is roughly in the same space so if the price rises to buy the 92-96 index it might be a signal to go long.
NEW/Jul24: The price closed above the 200 MAV and is about to buy the 92-96 index, as described above. I will be looking for the long entry in the next few weeks but only if the price can stay above $28.
NEW/Jul25: As anticipated, the 92-96 index generated a buy signal. In the upcoming days, I'll go long, provided that the price remains above $28.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 16-20 SELL (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 9 days, +0.92% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL > to NOT BUY 21.96/-0.36% or lower; current $22.04)
*comment/Jun13: URA finally broke out of the bullish contracting triangle that dates back to the top of 2021. If it is not a fakeout breakout a new 92-96 true bull buy signal will be generated by the end of June. $23 is the level to watch.
NEW/July10: Today the price is engaged with all indexes and their back prices. That is the sign that we have entered the decision time for the U stocks. We will know soon if the recent spike-up was a fake breakout or not.
NEW/July12: After 16-20 buy a 92-96 buy signal was generated for a double buy. Looks good but I still want to see that $23 resistance cleared before I do anything.
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 19 days, -2.48%; run pattern in-progress 2D/1U/+0.21%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on SELL > to NOT BUY 9.69/+2.54% or higher; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY > to NOT SELL 9.9/+4.76% or higher; 218-222 on BUY; current $9.45)
*comment/Jun13: The USERX price keeps oscillating around the critical $10.28 level (2016 top). If we have reached the support $9.5 shouldn't be exceeded to the downside but if it does there is strong support in the $8.75-9.0 area. I wouldn't like to see the price going to that level because it will significantly damage the SKI structure. On the other side breaking through the $10.28 level will take us back to the bulls' territory.
NEW/Jun23: 218-222 sold. Normally I would say this should lead to a drop to $8.8 but considering daily oversold conditions and how the 218-222 buy signal had inverted I think this could be at least a short-term bottom. If the price can hold above $9.5ish till July 92-96/218-222 double buy signal will be generated. Let's see if the drop stops here. $8.8ish is where the very long-term support lies. This support is rising and will reach $9ish by September so we are playing with critical levels here.
NEW/28Jun: Support is slowly breaking down. 881-885 index is breaking to BUY (2 days to go). $8.8ish is the target. The very long-term support will likely be tested.
NEW/Jun29: 881-885 is about to buy probably in the next 2 days. Based on the ASA behaviour and divergence with the gold today, I think we started the process of putting in a medium-term bottom.
NEW/Jun30: It is becoming very likely that this week we will get three buy signals 881-885/92-96/218-222. If we can then rise over $10.28 it would be extremely bullish. Let's see what happens.
NEW/July10: All three buy signals mentioned earlier have been generated. This likely indicates a short-term bottom. However, for a definitive bottom, we need a 35-39 buy signal before a potential 92-96 sell signal. Additionally, a price increase above the critical level of $10.28 is crucial. If this occurs and the price remains steady around $10.28 for about a month, the entire scenario will transition into a genuine bull market. Should the 92-96 sell signal occur before the 35-39 buy signal, the validity of the bottom narrative becomes uncertain, and the target of $8.8 will be revisited and tested again. To maintain the bottom thesis, the first step is to generate the 35-39 buy signal by the end of July, which necessitates a price rise above approximately $10.
NEW/July12: USERX didn't waste time and closed above $10 quickly, now we need to leave that $10.28 behind and move away from a possible 92-96 sell signal. The price is arriving at the major resistance area ($10.28-10.71) with the technicals stretched out so a failure to move above it in the next few weeks will be a bearish sign.
NEW/Jul18: Since the generation of the 35-39 buy signal two days ago, we have witnessed the first instance of the price closing above the crucial level of $10.28 today. This development indicates a bullish outlook, but more days above $10.28 are needed to validate the trend.
NEW/Jul24: USERX seems to be facing difficulty again in moving beyond the $10.28 level. There is a limited timeframe of one week to initiate an upward move; otherwise, the 92-96 index will begin to shift towards a sell signal.
NEW/Jul28: Once again, the inability to maintain above the pivotal $10.28 level (7 days ago) signaled weakness in the gold market. USERX may encounter a 35-39 sell signal on Monday, which would be a major concern if triggered. To prevent this, the price needs a rapid rise above $9.9, then further beyond $9.99. Although it's not a large task, it seems unlikely due to the current lack of momentum. Even if this event occurs, the price must exceed $10.28 to genuinely preserve the bullish potential of the current setup. If the situation remains unchanged and the 92-96 index sells, the potential downside target lies between $8.8 and $9, which aligns with the support area of the uptrend dating back to the 2016 low. This area must hold; otherwise, the gold bull market could confront substantial challenges.
NEW/Jul31: The initial move to prevent a 35-39 sell signal was made today, but the price must continue to rise. Keep in mind, for any bullish scenario to remain viable, the price needs to consolidate above $10.28.
NEW/Aug01: The 35-39 index has generated a sell signal, which is bearish, and the 92-96 index is trending towards a sell signal. The bearish aspects of the current setup are well established, so let's outline a potential bullish scenario—one that could be incredibly bullish. If the current drop continues unbroken for another 4 days, with an average decrease of over 2%, we could hit the exact long-term support of $8.8. This could produce a 'life run' chart pattern and generate a simultaneous 92-96 sell signal and 16-20 buy signal (usually marking bottoms), all in line with the seasonal bottom.
NEW/Aug02: Let's clarify both bearish and bullish arguments for this critical juncture:
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 3 days, -1.89% (inside a 92-96 BUY signal off the path) (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $6714)
*comment/Jun13: The XGD chart configuration is still bullish. The correction sold the 35-39 buy signal but the 92-96 buy is still alive. The $6600 breakout level is being tested from above. The correction shouldn't go lower than $6400. I have sold some since my last post and am 30% long. Looking to add around $6500-6600.
NEW/Jun29: 881-885 bought today. Feels like a bottom is close. The next few days will be telling if that is true.
NEW/July17: 35-39 index bought amid off-path 92-96 buy signal, indicating bullishness with the $7700 target. The concern arises as AUD gold price nears the end of the bull market unless a rapid rise to $3000 occurs. My long position remains at 70%.
NEW/Jul28: The 35-39 index sold, yet the structure remains robust enough to potentially revert to a bullish configuration. This recovery would require the price to exceed $7000 by the end of the first week of August. Whether this is likely is the key question. Given the potential termination of the gold bull market in AUD, it might not be probable, but the jury is still out. I'm prepared to downsize my trading position.
NEW/Jul31: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal today. While the signal is xxed, it's within an off-path 92-96 buy signal, so if this truly is a bull market, the signal should denote a low. It's noteworthy that the AUD gold price chart concluded its bull signal today, which is a negative sign. I remain 70% long, but this could change in an instant.
NEW/Aug01: I plan to reduce my position today, likely by 50%. Given the AUD's weakness, I anticipate Australian gold will outperform its US counterparts in this downturn. My initial target for the bottom—between $6300 and $6400 seems achievable once more. Depending on the circumstances, I may commence purchasing at that level.
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