SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 151 days, +11.01% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to NOT SELL 4477/-0.67% or lower; 35-39 BUY executed today> breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $4507)
*Comment/Jun13: SandP is in a true bull configuration. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an existing 92-96 true bull signal. The bullishness has been confirmed with the price rising over $4200. The 36-month support held so technically everything is bullish.
NEW/Aug10: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal within the current true-bull market. Typically, such a signal would be a buying opportunity, but the market's action appears tepid to me. I anticipate we'll proceed at least until the 35-39 index generates a sell signal in the $4350-4400 range.
NEW/Aug18: The price hit the $4350-4400 range as anticipated. A 35-39 sell signal is now almost imminent, marking a key point in this setup. I foresee some short-term strength in the coming weeks, followed by either a renewed rally after a new 35-39 buy signal or a drop towards the 92-96 index ($4100ish) if the signal is omitted. Given the dollar and 10yy's current strength, I lean bearish and might go short on the next 16-20 sell signal.
NEW/Aug25: 35-39 sold, as anticipated. If the next signal is a 35-39 buy, I'll refrain in the beginning but if a 16-20 sell follows it and then a 35-39 sell, I'll take a short position. If the 35-39 doesn't buy back and the next signal is a 16-20 sell, I might go short on that 16-20 sell, depending on some other parameters.
NEW/Aug30: 35-39 index bought. If the 16-20 subsequently sells, which seems likely, then we'll be looking at a double-sell scenario described above.
HUI, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $227.38)
*comment/Aug03: The HUI index is in a bearish configuration, with the only upside being that the price remains above the supportive rising trendline dating back to the low of September 2022. To maintain this supportive trendline, the price needs to stay above the $220 mark. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's 92-96 sell signal indicates a low. In the shorter timeframe, the HUI is following a bearish descending channel since the peak in May 2023. This descending channel's lower boundary approximates to around $210, which is therefore a presumed target for the current move.
NEW/Aug15: HUI price is targeting around $210, but a dip to approximately $205 is also possible.
NEW/Aug23: The low currently stands at $112.67, nearly meeting my target. A bounce has started, however, I'm not fully convinced of its sustainability. I'm looking for a follow-through and the price's capacity to remain above $230.
NEW/Aug31: The 16-20 index has sold, with the rally halted precisely at the $230 mark. So far the action is bearish at this important level.
$NDX - Nasdaq, 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, NOTxxed(true) (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $15501)
*comment/Apr19: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39, 92-96 and 218-222 indexes are on buy signals. Everything is lined up in a bullish order.
NEW/Aug04: It appears that NDX hit some kind of a top around $16K. If a correction begins, the initial target is likely the $14.5K zone.
NEW/Aug10: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal, yet I maintain my belief that a correction is underway. The downside target is $14.5K.
NEW/Aug18: 35-39 index sold. I target $14.5K, after which I anticipate some strength. The next 16-20 sell signal seems a good opportunity to go short. In the absence of such a signal, two closes under $14600 is also a good shorting point.
NEW/Aug30: 35-39 index bought. If the 16-20 subsequently sells, which seems likely, then we'll be looking at a double-sell scenario.
NEW/Aug31: The 16-20 index has sold, as expected. The double-sell scenario is now active.
$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, +2.89% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 1913/+0.74% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $1899)
*comment/Jul19: The Russell chart generated a triple buy signal 16-20/218-222/35-39 in June and now this signal is joined by a 92-96 buy signal. The SKI structure is great and everything is aligned in a bullish manner. The bullish target is around $2200.
NEW/Aug10: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal. I think that a correction is underway. The downside target is $1880ish.
NEW/Aug18: Price reached the targeted $1880. A 35-39 sell signal is nearing, signalling a crucial juncture. The 92-96 index back prices are near $1800, likely to be tested soon.
NEW/Aug23: The 35-39 sold, as expected. A rebound started but the extent of it remains to be seen. However, similar to NDX and SPX, there are certain short-side setups I'd consider.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 25 days, +3.12% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.09%)
*comment/Jul28: The 10-year yield (10yy) has reentered a true bull market. Although the SKI structure is solid, the buy signal was triggered below the major resistance level, requiring a rise above that level for validation. Monitoring this chart is crucial, as a surge above 4% might trigger turbulence in the broader markets including the gold market.
NEW/Aug01: Today's surge of the 10-year yield (10yy) above 4% undoubtedly stirred the gold market. It appears that the 10yy target is the October high of 4.29%, or even 5.3% if this truly is a bull market. While gold may face challenges if this continues, a correction in the broader market shouldn't be ruled out too.
NEW/Aug03: The 10-year yield continues to spike up and might soon reach the recent top at 4.29% (and probably go beyond). It's intriguing when the equity market will take notice of this.
NEW/Aug08: A short-term peak was reached at 4.2%, with yields declining since. This aligns with my theory that a surge beyond the key resistance range (4.1%-4.3%) is essential for the 92-96 buy signal confirmation. We're now back below this resistance. If this recent high persists, a 35-39 sell signal will likely emerge, possibly indicating that the peak has been established.
NEW/Aug15: 10yy is breaching a crucial level and disrupting the equity markets. With its momentum and bullish signals in DXY, further advancement seems likely before stabilizing. 4.4% is likely the next stop, then 5%.
NEW/Aug18: The 10yy rally seems unyielding, typical of a genuine bull signal. On Thursday, it reached its highest intraday and closing levels since the FED began tightening. If this ascent persists, particularly with abrupt spikes, the markets could face significant challenges. The 10-year notes' COT reading mirrors the March peak but has a higher open interest. If small specs shift to the short side in the next report, I might consider going long TLT, aiming to pinpoint the yield's peak, but that is a big if.
NEW/Aug29: It appears that the 10yy has reached a short-term peak at 4.35%. It will be telling to see if the 218-222 index produces a sell signal (around 4%), which could suggest this short-term peak is transitioning into a longer-term one, potentially indicating an imminent end to the bull market. I often revisit the notion of the bull market's conclusion, primarily because that was my initial assessment shaped by the termination of the successful 92-96 true buy signal in March 2023. Historically, after extended bull markets, there's a trend where quick 92-96 buy signals emerge but dissipate swiftly. The present signal is a second such buy, it is well-constructed and would necessitate a significant dip to 3.5% to nullify it. However, I still deem this scenario plausible, which is why I'm closely observing the potential 218-222 sell signal. That being said, it's crucial to acknowledge that the current bull market's foundation remains unshaken as of now.
XAU, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 18 days, -0.46% (after double SELL 92-96/35-39) (also, 16-20 on BUY > to SELL 118.76/+0.76% or higher; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 127.15/+7.88% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $117.86)
*comment/Aug04: The XAU index is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's 92-96 sell signal indicates a low. Since the peak in April 2023 the price has been following a bearish descending channel. The channel's bottom is currently close to the $110-112 area, setting a potential target for the ongoing trend. A price surge above $130, sustained for a significant period, could revert the pattern to bullish.
NEW/Aug07: The 16-20 index generated a buy signal today, following the 92-96/35-39 double sell initiated yesterday. The signal is xxed, making it risky to buy.
NEW/Aug18: The $110-112 target range has been reached. If the price doesn't stabilize here, there could be significant issues.
NEW/Aug23: Nice bounce off of the support area. Its extent remains to be seen. I can't lean more than short-term bullish until the $130 resistance is breached (35-39 buy).
ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 19 days, -0.07% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to SELL 14.97/+0.6% or higher; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $14.88)
*comment/Aug04: ASA is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its May 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the July 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $15.5) and the ascending channel's bottom (around $15). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $13 becomes the target. Surpassing $15.5 and maintaining it (35-39 buy signal) would revert the trend to bullish.
NEW/Aug10: Today's movement was bearish. The price opened higher, reaching the $15.5 resistance before reversing and closing in the red, nearly 2% below yesterday's close. I expect more downside pressure.
NEW/Aug14: The ASA price rise continues to encounter resistance, and each downward movement surpasses the preceding upward one. The prevailing trend still indicates a downward pressure. A quick ascent above $15.5 is required to alleviate this pressure. A 35-39 buy signal could signal an increasing likelihood of such an occurrence.
NEW/Aug15: Support appears to have faltered. If so, the next target is around $13.5.
NEW/Aug18: ASA, the most reliable gold market timing indicator in recent years, hasn't shown signs of bottoming. The target remains at $13.5.
NEW/Aug23: $14.06 is the bottom so far. The durability of this bounce is yet to be determined. $15 is the resistance; it needs to break and hold for several days to argue in favour of a bullish case.
BITCOIN, last signal 92-96 SELL, 12 days, -0.72% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $26003
*comment/Aug23: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price has been moving inside the trading range of $25K-32K since March. If 25K support fails it is probably going to 20K.
COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL (double SELL with 92-96), 14 days, -0.03% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 38.13/+0.71% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $37.86)
*comment/Jul18: COPX is currently in a bullish constellation, with an ongoing consolidation pattern that dates back to 2021. The price mostly fluctuates between $34 and $42, occasionally venturing to $28 and $47. The $40-$42 range remains a significant resistance level. While the overall market is experiencing a breakout, copper is lagging behind, which is not a bullish sign as copper is typically expected to lead. However, the SKI indices indicate a potential upward resolution, but it is necessary to monitor the situation closely and observe how it unfolds.
NEW/Jul25: We're nearing the $42 resistance once more, with momentum favouring the upside. If the price can maintain around this level for several days, there's a good chance we'll see another surge towards $47.
NEW/Aug10: The rise was halted once more at the $42 resistance. The price is now retreating to test the support, currently situated around $37. Multiple signals are anticipated over the next 4 weeks. Clearly, a pivotal moment is approaching, and a significant move is imminent.
NEW/Aug18: Touching the $42 trending range's upper boundary was once again a 'kiss of death'. With a double 35-39/92-96 sell, the $34 target looms and might be hit soon. The frailty of copper is troubling for industrial and commodity markets.
DXY (dollar index), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed (double buy with 92-96), 14 days, +0.45% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $103.63)
*comment/Jul18: DXY is currently in a bearish constellation, with the price following a downtrend. It has now reached a crucial support zone that dates back to the lows of 2011. This support level resides in the range of $98-99, and if it is breached, it could lead to a significant breakdown in the dollar chart. While a short-term breakdown is not anticipated, it remains important to observe the developments over the next few months.
NEW/Aug01: As anticipated, the dollar rebounded from the $99 support zone back to the resistance zone around $102-103. It remains to be seen whether there's enough momentum for a breakthrough. However, if the 10-year yield (10yy) continues its upward surge, a breakthrough could be likely.
NEW/Aug04: The 16-20 sold today as the price sharply reversed upon reaching the resistance line. Though a sustained push beyond this resistance might signal bullish momentum, potentially leading to a double 35-30/92-96 buy, the recent prolonged rally and current bearish posture suggest today's signal likely marks a temporary top. If, from here, the price aligns with the descending resistance, the 16-20 index may buy by mid-August, prepping for a potential bullish triple buy. If this triple buy doesn't materialize and the price stays below $99, anticipate further descent.
NEW/Aug11: 35-39 crossed to BUY and most probably 92-96 will do the same tomorrow. This supports the ongoing bullish sentiment in the 10-year treasury yield (10yy) and, in contrast, reflects the weakening gold market. However, as with all technical signals, persistence over several days is essential for confirmation.
NEW/Aug14: 92-96 index bought, pairing with the 35-39 for a double buy signal. It's vital the price remains near this mark or moves up; otherwise, both indices might sell quickly. What happens here is important for the gold market.
NEW/Aug28: It seems the double buy signal will hold, indicating a potential extension of this dollar rally. However, I anticipate some short-term pullback/consolidation around the current level.
GDX, last signal 92-96 SELL, 19 days, -0.24% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to NOT SELL 29.16/-0.34% or lower; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.26)
*comment/Aug04: GDX is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its May 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the September 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $31.5) and the ascending channel's bottom (around $30). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $26.5-27.0 becomes the target. Surpassing $32ish and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.
NEW/Aug15: $26.5-27 area is the target.
NEW/Aug25: So far the low stands at $27.27, nearly reaching my target. I'm watching for another potential dip to retest that level. Nonetheless, I won't shift to a more optimistic view until the price surpasses $30 and the 35-39 index generates a buy signal.
GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 2 days, -0.99% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $35.99)
*comment/Aug04: GDXJ is in a bearish configuration. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its April 2023 peak, the price has been in a bearish descending channel. However, it also trends within a bullish ascending channel starting from the 2022 low. The price now sits between the descending channel's top (around $37) and the ascending channel's bottom (around 34.5). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $32.0 becomes the target. Surpassing $37ish and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.
NEW/Aug15: $31-32 area is the target.
NEW/Aug25: So far the low stands at $32.98, nearly reaching my target. I'm watching for another potential dip to retest that level. Nonetheless, I won't shift to a more optimistic view until the price surpasses $36.5 and the 35-39 index generates a buy signal.
NEW/Aug29: The first condition to start looking at the bullish side has been met today, 35-39 bought. The price settled approximately at, before mentioned, $36.5 and if it can sustain this level and rise further things will start looking more positive. Having said that the SKI structure is not favourable for this signal, it will need a strong move up to $39 to avoid triggering a sell. Even if the 35-39 does indicate a sell, there are intriguing and potentially highly bullish scenarios I'll highlight if they become more likely.
GLD, 16-20 crossed to SELL (preceded by a 16-20/35-39 JPOT double BUY signal) (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $180.02)
*comment/Aug04: GLD displays a bearish constellation. Although the 92-96 index sold today, the SKI structure for gold differs somewhat from that of gold stocks. While gold stocks' long indices are mixed, gold's are bullish. The triple buy signal initiated in early March (218-222/439-443/660-664) remains active. Additionally, traditional technical indicators remain long-term bullish for gold (price above 200-day MAV), whereas they show deterioration for the stocks. To revert to a bullish trend for gold, it only needs to surpass the resistance at $181-184 ($1960-1980) and maintain that level (35-39 buy) long enough for the 92-96 index to buy back. If the 92-96's sell signal marks the beginning of a new decline, significant support is found within the $172-175 range. This support, dating back to the 2018 low, is critical for the bull market's continuation.
NEW/Aug15: GLD is on its 7th day down today. The price is entering the zone of strong support at $172-175 (1880-1890 spot).
NEW/Aug18: $175 ($1890) has been hit but there are still no signs of the bottom. After some consolidation, I think we might test the $170-172 ($1820-1850).
NEW/Aug25: The low has reached $174.93 ($1883 spot), meeting my target. However, I wouldn't rule out a further decline to the $170-172 ($1820-1850 spot) range. Confirmation of a potential final bottom won't be clear until the price surpasses $181 ($1960 spot). Patience remains essential
NEW/Aug29: The 35-39 initiated a buy, creating a JPOT double buy alongside the existing 16-20 buy signal. Given the current SKI configuration, this 35-39 buy is likely to be short-lived. If a 16-20 sell signal precedes the anticipated 35-39 sell, it will result in a double sell. However, if the price can remain above $175 for a few weeks afterwards, another double buy might be triggered. This has the potential to evolve into a triple buy if the rally continues. $181 acts as a formidable resistance ($1960 spot). Let's see what happens.
NEW/Aug31: The 16-20 index triggered a sell, thus setting in motion the double sell scenario previously mentioned.
SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 8 days, +4.33% (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $22.39)
*comment/Aug14: The SLV chart is in a bearish configuration. Both 92-96 and 35-39 indices sold, yet the price hasn't exited the $21-24 trading range since its May peak. It's now nearing the $21 support. If the weakness persists, targets are roughly $19.5-20.0 ($21.5-22 spot) followed by $18.5 ($19.89 spot). However, a buy signal from the 35-39 index could indicate a possible retest of resistance at $24 ($26 spot).
NEW/Aug25: The 35-39 buy signal aligned with the bottom at $20.55, which closely matches my target. The sustainability of this rally is now the main question. The 16-20 is poised to sell shortly. If it's followed by a 35-39 sell, it could spell trouble for those in long positions, especially if the price falls below $22 again. Rising over $23.5 during the next 4 weeks would be bullish.
NEW/Aug30: The 16-20 has sold, confirming expectations. We're now in a double-sell scenario. To counteract this, the price must swiftly surpass approximately $23 (triggering a 92-96 buy).
TIP, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed(true), 18 days, -0.44% (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 107.71/+1.55% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 crossed to BUY; current $106.07)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a slightly falling trading channel (bullish). $105-106 is very firm support and I don't expect it to be broken. If it does that might cause turmoil in the gold market.
NEW/July19: The 92-96 signal has generated an xxed JPOT buy signal. However, the SKI structure is currently weak, making it unlikely for this signal to survive the next few weeks. Nevertheless, if the next signal is a 35-39 buy, it could create a bullish setup capable of transforming the chart into a bullish breakout. The recent bottoming pattern around $105 and the existing bullish momentum make this scenario quite probable.
NEW/Jul28: So the 92-96 sold, as expected. The bearishness continues. Seems like the major support around $104-105 will be tested again.
NEW/Aug04: The price's drop to the significant support zone near $105 triggered a sharp surge, mirroring reactions in July, March, and October 2022. This hints at a potential bottom, though confirmation is essential.
NEW/Aug10: There's been no continuation from the August 4th movement. The low is not confirmed yet but it is still intact.
NEW/Aug15: We're in a solid support zone, testing the October 2022 lows. I anticipate a dip to around $104, but it should hold for at least a short-term rebound.
NEW/Aug25: The bottom so far is at $104.57 and holding but we are not out of the woods yet.
NEW/Aug29: The 218-222 initiated a buy. If the rally from the recent low persists, the 35-39 is likely to buy soon, possibly indicating a bottom.
TLT, last signal 92-96 SELL (double SELL with 35-39), 27 days, -4.57% (also, 16-20 on BUY > to SELL 96.69/+0.05% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $96.64)
*comment/Jun13: The chart is in a bearish configuration and the price is moving inside a trading channel ($101-$109). $101 is firm support; if broken down, it could signal a spike in 10yy above 3.8%-4%. That might start a correction in NASDAQ and S&P 500.
NEW/Jun22: There is a setup for a triple buy signal at the beginning of July. The price needs to be around $100 at that time.
NEW/July10: The support at $98.88 is being challenged in a manner that looks like a breakdown. The 10yy is at 4% and any further rise will confirm the breakdown of the TLT chart. A TLT price turnaround here will produce a triple buy signal that I explained above. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Jul18: A triple buy scenario has occurred, combining the 35-39 buy, 92-96 buy, and 16-20 buy signals. However, the SKI structure poses a threat to the sustainability of these buy signals. It is highly possible for the situation to transition rapidly into a double sell, which aligns more favourably with the SKI structure. To shift my outlook to bullish, it is crucial for the price to swiftly exceed $104 and maintain that level (10yy at 3.4%) for a few consecutive days. Currently, I am just observing.
NEW/Jul25: The 92-96 index generated a sell signal, concluding the triple buy as anticipated. If this downtrend persists, it's likely to exert downward pressure on the gold price.
NEW/Jul26: The 35-39 index has sold, forming a double sell signal with the 92-96 index. Despite this, support around $99 remains intact, but a retest appears likely.
NEW/Aug01: We're currently breaching the support at $98. Having broken the March and July lows, the next target is $92. This implies a 10-year yield (10yy) of around 4.3%, spelling trouble for all markets except the dollar.
NEW/Aug15: We're nearing the October 2022 lows at $92. I expect a slight breach of this level before at least a short-term bounce.
NEW/Aug25: We've touched the $92.23 mark, sparking a robust rally that suggests we might be seeing the formation of a bottom. Triggering a 218-222 buy signal would be a step in that direction.
UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 39 days, +28.15% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL > to BUY 31.28/-2.13% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL > to NOT BUY 29.97/-6.23% or lower; current $31.96)
*comment/Aug14: The chart is in a bullish configuration. The 218-222 index bought, reinforcing the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. I await a correction to go long, ideally at the $28 breakout retest.
NEW/Aug25: We tested that $28 level last week but 218-222 sold and it seems the 92-96 is going to sell tomorrow as well so I am refraining from buying.
NEW/Aug31: The 92-96 narrowly dodged a sell signal, and it looks like the 218-222 will soon revert to a buy. Although the dip to $28 was the ideal entry point (as I had intended), it now seems I've missed that opportunity.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 16-20 SELL (while on 92-96 double buy signal off the path), 29 days, +9.94% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $24.01)
*comment/Jun13: URA finally broke out of the bullish contracting triangle that dates back to the top of 2021. If it is not a fakeout breakout a new 92-96 true bull buy signal will be generated by the end of June. $23 is the level to watch.
NEW/July10: Today the price is engaged with all indexes and their back prices. That is the sign that we have entered the decision time for the U stocks. We will know soon if the recent spike-up was a fake breakout or not.
NEW/July12: After 16-20 buy a 92-96 buy signal was generated for a double buy. Looks good but I still want to see that $23 resistance cleared before I do anything.
NEW/Aug04: The 218-222 buy signal was triggered today, aligning with the 35-39 and 92-96 buy signals. The outlook appears bullish, yet the $23 resistance remains intact.
NEW/Aug10: I've observed that the Uranium AUD price is undergoing a breakout, and a similar trend is emerging among the Aussie juniors. While I've maintained a core position for the past two years, I'm now planning to increase my investment.
NEW/Aug11: I went long on BMN.ax and BOE.ax and might add more today. Uranium stocks (core and trading) comprise 25% of my current portfolio. I'll keep the stops relaxed for now.
NEW/Aug25: The $23 resistance is weakening, but a prominent horizontal barrier exists at the $24 mark, which must be surpassed for a more definitive breakout. My long positions are doing well, so I am moving my stops to the break-even point.
USERX, last signal 92-96 SELL; 19 days, -1.16%, run pattern in-progress 3U/1D/-0.37%perday; xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on BUY > breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY > breaking to SELL; current $9.37)
*comment/Aug04: The 92-96 index generated a sell signal, therefore, changing the SKI structure to bearish. The 16-20 generated a buy signal at the same time. The current setup doesn't allow for an easy transition to a positive structure, even if today's concurrent 92-96 sell/16-20 buy signals suggest a low. Since its peak in April 2023, the price has followed a bearish descending channel. Yet, it also tracks a bullish ascending channel originating from July 2022. The price now sits on the lower boundary between the descending channel's resistance (around $10.28) and the ascending channel's support (around $9.5). While the 92-96 sell signal leans bearish, potentially breaking support, the simultaneous 16-20 buy offers a counterpoint. If support fails, the descending channel's base near $8.8 becomes the target. This area, if tested, must hold because that is the bull market trending support dating back to the 2016(!) low. Surpassing $10.28 and maintaining it (35-39 buy) would revert the trend to bullish.
NEW/Aug08: The run pattern has reverted to 2-up, 2-down, reintroducing the potential for a life run pattern. However, the average down day is currently too weak. It would be bullish to persist in this downward trajectory towards the low, even if the average down day doesn't satisfy the life run criteria. Conversely, if there's a reversal leading to a 35-39 index buy, it would represent a 16-20/35-39 JPOT double buy, possibly signalling a bottom.
NEW/Aug10: Today's new low in USERX, combined with activity in ASA, the dollar, and TLT, appears unfavourable for bulls. It seems the $8.8 test is now imminent.
NEW/Aug18: The price dropped to $8.83 last week, reaching my target zone. We've begun testing long-term support. While some short-term strength is anticipated, I believe we'll revisit this level for another test in a week or two.
NEW/Aug23: As anticipated, the decline to $8.8 triggered a rally, which has since reclaimed the 218-222 index. I remain uncertain if the support testing has concluded, so I'll continue to monitor closely.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on SELL > breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL > to BUY 7300/+6.24% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $6871)
*comment/Aug14: The XGD chart configuration is bearish while the overall outlook remains ambiguous. The $6200 support dating back from 2015 low and the 200-day MAV still hold. The 881-885 index bought, hinting at a potential bottom. If a 35-39 buy signal emerges, I might repurchase what I recently sold. If the decline persists, I'll consider buying around $6100-6200 with tight stops. 35% long.
NEW/Aug18: The price dipped to 6226, meeting my target zone. I plan to buy on any intraday weakness this Monday, aiming for a short-term bounce for now.
NEW/Aug23: 50% long. Stops at break-even for the new buys. Target at 16-20 sell signal.
NEW/Aug29: The 439-443 index issued a buy signal today, which bodes well for the long-term perspective. However, a climb above $7700 is essential to align all indices correctly. I'm currently 50% long and aim to reduce back to 35% within the next couple of days.
NEW/Aug30: Down to 35% long since Thursday morning.
NEW/Aug31: 16-20 sold.
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