The State Of Indices, 9/5/2022

 SandP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 8 days, -1.45% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 4411/+7.0% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 SELL executed today; current $4123)

*comment: S and P chart is in bearish configuration. The 218-222 index has been support since May 2020. On Thursday 218-222 sold again for a juxtaposed signal after it bought the day before. That is very bearish. I sold my long position for a small loss. The target on the downside is $3804 and then $3660. Based simply on the sentiment I still think there should be some upside here (probably to $4500) but I was obviously wrong so far. I might establish a long position again on Monday if I am happy with the price action (gap down open followed by a strong recovery). Longer-term I am looking to start shorting this market.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 78 days, +8.92% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 BUY executed today; current $274.06)
*comment: The HUI chart is in bullish configuration. The 35-39 sold and didn't show much support so far, contrary to my expectation. On the other hand, the 218-222 bought back which is an indication of a possible bottom being put in place. The most important thing now is that the next bottom is higher than the one in January 2022. Anything above $280 will do but a lower price is ok too (up to $260) if just temporary. I do expect the trading range between $270-330 for a couple of months.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 15 days, -8.91% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12144)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The support has been breached again. The downside target is $11404. A further fall now seems inevitable but based on the sentiment I'd say we should have some kind of a relief rally first. The 10y yield surged above 3% which supports more weakness.

Russell, last signal 35-39 SELL, 11 days, -5.21% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1839)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The target is $1710. Very short term I'd still expect a rally back to touch the 16-20 and test the breakdown level ($1950-2000ish) but the 10Y yield action doesn't support this view. We will see.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 122 days, +100.19% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.12%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. This is the most important chart to follow at the moment. The yield reached the 3% level negating my expectation for a dip down to 2.5-2.6%. Rising over 3% seems inevitable now (did happen on Thursday). Probably to 3.2%ish. Since the beginning of this move, the consolidations have been very brief and shallow so I will not try again to predict another one (but still expect one). Let's see how long it will take to hit the 3.2% level.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, true BUY, onpath, notxxed, 65 days, +11.58% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to BUY 143.68/+3.73% or higher; current $138.51)
*comment: The XAU is on a true bull signal. The correction started and quickly reached 61.8% Fibo retracements at $137.94. The most important thing now is to put in a low at or around the current level to confirm the bull market trend. I do expect the trading range between $136-165 for a couple of months. In the near future, it is important to buy back the 218-222 index.

ASA, 92-96 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.97)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration now. The uptrend line is still holding though, but barely.

Bitcoin, Last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, -2.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $34547
*comment: I have been stopped out of my long position that I established on the 92-96 buy signal. The price is still above the uptrend line (35Kish) but is hanging by a thread. The next level of support is around $28Kish.

COPX Copper miners, last signal 35-39 SELL, 9 days, -1.61% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $37.98)
*comment: COPX is testing the breakout level from above ($38). In the last session the 35-39 buy low has been breached so we need a quick recovery to keep the bullish prospect.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 62 days, +8.18% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $34.24)
*comment: GDX is on a strong double buy signal. 92-96 is in command. The correction started and quickly reached 61.8% Fibo retracement at $33.75. The most important thing now is to put in a low at or around the current level to confirm the bull market trend. I do expect the trading range between $34-40 for a couple of months. 218-222 bought back which is an indication of a possible bottom being put in place.

GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days,
-11.03% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $41.45)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The SKI indices have lined up in bullish order. The correction started and quickly reached 61.8% Fibo retracement at $42.4. The most important thing now is to put in a low at or around the current level to confirm the bull market trend. Even a lower price is ok but it would be suspicious because it would go under 200 days SMA so it should be very brief. I do expect the trading range between $42-50 for a couple of months.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 93 days, +3.82% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $175.42)
*comment: GLD chart is in a bullish configuration. The correction has exceeded 61.8% Fibo retracement of the last rally. The fall needs to stop soon or this will turn ugly. The trend support is between $175-178 and is rising. I expect a trading range between $174-185 for the next couple of months. If the fall continues the target is in $167-169 range, another 4%. Short term resistance is at $180ish.

SLV, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 19 days,
-10.76% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 20.57/-0.44% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.66)
*comment: SLV bought back the 92-96 index for its true bull market. The SKI structure is appropriate. The correction is underway after the buy signal and it reached the old trendline. I expect the bottom to form around the current level. A 92-96 sell signal would ruin the bullish structure so it shouldn't happen (20.30ish). For the next couple of months, I expect the price to float in the $21-24 range. NEW: The price is dangerously close to selling the 92-96 index. There is a significant convergence of the indices in mid-June. It seems that the current bull signal will end and the signals marking a new long term bull or bear phase will be generated around the time of this convergence.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 23 days, -3.22% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $118.18)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. Since the price during the consolidation touched the 16-20 index it just collapsed through the support. It might be a short term low but this is turning ugly. The downside target is $111ish.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 42 days,
-16.68% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $113.67)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The expected short term rally didn't happen, only a brief consolidation. Further downside move is expected. An immediate market crash is becoming more probable.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 103 days, +131.27% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $180.11)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish triangle has been developing since the top in March 2022. The current breakout level is $170ish, and the support is $150ish. I expect the triangle to be broken to the upside signalling the start of a new leg up. The timeframe is mid-May 2022. Technically there is no serious resistance before $300. NEW: We are close to the mid-May time frame described above and the price is slowly breaking out. So far so good.

URA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 8 days, -6.71% (double sell with 92-96) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $21.97)
*comment: The correction of the last rally has resulted in a double sell 35-39/92-96 which doesn't look good but a small rally will result in a double buy that would look pretty buyable. I am expecting some range trading between $23.5-26.5 for the next couple of months. The other option is if the $23 cannot hold, fall to $21 for the next support. In that case, we cannot talk about bullish configuration anymore. NEW: The price broke the $23 support so we cannot talk about bullish alignment anymore. The chart turned bearish. Let's see if the 218-222 can mark the low because it would be a higher low with a potential to turn the chart bullish if the 92-96 can buy back.

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed; 24 days, -11.49%, run pattern in-progress 2U/2D/
-2.46%perday, xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $11.71)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for the start of a true bull market. The correction reached close to the 61.8% Fibo retracement ($11.73). The most important thing now is to put in a low at or around the current level to confirm the bull market trend. There is not much space for further correction so if it happens it should only be very brief. I do expect the trading range between $12-13.4 for a couple of months. The chart pattern of this last peak is taking the shape of a megaphone. For this reason in the longer-term time frame, I expect the price to visit the upper boundary of this megaphone at $14.5ish. Probably by mid-June. NEW: An interesting setup is being in play regarding the chart pattern. If the price does crash in the next 3+ sessions below 11.20 the chart pattern would turn 2 up 5+ down with an average of 2%+ per day. That would also put us close to the $10.28 the 2016 price top which has been a very significant level ever since. It had been resistance from 2016 to 2020 and then support since 2020. Let's see if $10.28 becomes a play here. I'd be a buyer.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 181 days, +10.18% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.71)
*comment: The UUP is in the true bull configuration. The price is now above the long term resistance ($27.19) and approaching the highs of the Corona outbreak in March 2020. These levels have not been successfully held for more than 3 days back in 2020 so it seems to me that we are approaching some kind of a top. This is especially true if taking into account the steep rise that led to today. The minimum we should expect is the test of the $27.2 very soon. If after the correction the price can stay above this level the dollar will go ballistic with the UUP target at $33.52. I'd say the beginning of June is the critical period for the breakout or breakdown.

Australian XGD, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 58 days, +11.03% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $6655)
*comment: The XGD finally broke $7400 and that resulted in a correction. The 218-222 bought and sold so we can expect some more struggle to form the proper bottom to confirm the bull market trend. The confirmation should come in the form of a new 218-222 buy. The recent 16-20 buy should help in that task. The next support is at $6500. If the Aussie market outperforms the USA gold market in the next two weeks (expected) I think the Aussie correction will be over soon and we move sideways/up for a while increasing the pressure to the $7400 again. NEW: the Aussie market doesn't really outperform the USA market. On the contrary, it is lagging. This is a fact that probably means that any possible rally in the upcoming weeks will be of limited scope.