The State of Indices, 26/5/2022

 SandP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 21 days, -4.91% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3978)

*comment: S and P chart is in bearish configuration. The 218-222 index support (since 2020) has been broken. That was the critical support. Rallies should be sold from now on. The downside target $3804 was hit on Friday. The next two targets are $3684 and then $3495. The upside target for the correction rally is $4175 then $4350. I think that short term bias is to the upside.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 2 days, -0.72% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $260.89)
*comment: HUI generated a new 92-96 buy signal, it is xxed, and the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $270ish. That would overcome the downtrend line and buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold or $220 becomes the downside target.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 28 days, -14.23% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11434)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit the next target is $10269. The upside target for the rebound is $12500 then $13500. Time to short rallies but the short-term bias is to the upside.

Russell, last signal 35-39 SELL, 24 days, -7.29% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1799)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target of $1710 has been hit the next target is $1534. Short term I expect a rally back to touch the 16-20 ($1950ish) and test the breakdown level. Now it is time to short rallies.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 135 days, +76.22% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.75%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The trend support is still lower at 2.5-2.6%ish and should be hit during the ongoing correction. The bull market support is around 2% and rising.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 2 ays, -0.63% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $131.63)
*comment: 92-96 generated new buy signal, it is xxed, the structure is neutral. To increase the chance that last week's price action marked a significant bottom price needs to raise over $140ish. That would buy back the 218-222 index. The 92-96 needs to hold or $110 becomes the downside target.

ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 14 days, -7.11% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.55)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration now. There is a convergence of the SKI indices in mid-June that could be a target for a possible bounce ($21ish).

Bitcoin, Last signal 92-96 SELL, 19 days, -16.08% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29794
*comment: After the crash of the last few weeks the price is still above the uptrend line that started in March 2020 at about 5K. The trendline support at 28K was breached but quickly recovered. If this cannot hold the next downside target is 19Kish. A more probable immediate scenario is a rally back to $36K-38K to test the breakdown.

COPX Copper miners, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 3 days, -1.17% (in tandem with 218-222) (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $38.71)
*comment: COPX regained the $38 level and bought back the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. The price has been gyrating around this most critical level since the May 2021 top. The current SKI structure does not promise that the signals will last but if the price can get above $41 and stay there for a while then this would change. An immediate fall back below $38 will signal weakness and the possibility to break the recent low. A crash down to $30 and lower is then probable. This chart is worth watching in regards to the potential S and P 500 breakdown.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 3 days, +1.05% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.59)
*comment: The 92-96 bought back but it is xxed and the SKI structure is not impressive for the bull case. If the 218-222 can buy back and hold, the picture will change. Short term I think that is where the price is going but in the next few weeks, I expect the 92-96 to be challenged again. If I am wrong and the 92-96 sells quickly then $30 support is in jeopardy implying a probable crash down to $25ish. This support ($25) is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed if the bull market will persist.

GDXJ, last signal 92-96 SELL, 11 days, +5.46% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 40.72/+2.29% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $39.81)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26 and then $24.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 106 days, +2.43% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $173.08)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration. The correction has exceeded all my targets and has reached the 92-96 index. The trend support is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. If the fall continues the target is in the $155-160 range. The target for the bounce is $175ish.

SLV, last signal 92-96 SELL, 12 days, +4.04% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.34)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is already bearish and it seems that the first target is 18.5ish then $17.4ish. An immediate turnaround would push the price back above the long term support but then it will have a lot of resistance to clear before the structure changes to positive. The target for the bounce is $21ish. Technically rallies should be sold.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 36 days, -2.61% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $118.92)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. Since the price during the consolidation touched the 16-20 index it just collapsed through the support. It might be forming a short term low now but this is an ugly looking chart. The downside target is $111ish. Short term upside target is $121ish.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 55 days,
-12.53% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $119.33)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The last few days look like the price is trying to find some support. Short term upside target $120ish and then $130ish.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 116 days, +130.33% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $179.38)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish flag has been developing since the top in March 2022. The current breakout level is $180ish, and the support is $150ish. I expect the flag to be broken to the upside signalling the start of a new leg up. Technically there is no serious resistance before $300. NEW: The $180 level seems tough to break through so I expect now to see the test of the lower boundary at $150. If this support breaks $130 is the target and then $105. I still expect the breakout to be to the upside.

URA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 20 days, -10.54% (double sell with 92-96) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $21.21)
*comment: The correction of the last rally resulted in a double sell 35-39/92-96. The price is now approaching the very long term support line that goes back to Apr 2020. If this support ($19ish) fails a serious crash is in the cards, probably down to $17 and then $13. The SKI configuration is not bullish anymore but it will take time to fully turn bearish. NEW: The 218-222 bought back. That improves the chances that the recent low will hold but it will need more testing.

USERX, last signal 92-96 SELL, 11 days, +2.79%, run pattern in-progress 2U/1D/-0.54%perday, xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL, current $11.06)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market failed. The correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. Touching this area resulted in an instant bounce but it is too early to declare a bottom. Since all other options are now out of the picture the only important thing is that the price holds at this level. If it doesn't the next target area is $8.5ish. Breaking through $11.5ish resistance would help the bullish case. I have bought for a bounce but with very tight stops (will take profit at $11.5).

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 194 days, +8.59% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.31)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. The price is now above the long term resistance ($27.19) and is holding. I still expect the retest of $27.19 from above before a new leg up. The longer the price is holding above this level the better chance for an outbreak that will target $33.52. NEW: The price correction hit the important $27.19 on Tuesday. I expect support to kick in now. A failure to hold above $27.0-27.19 might mean that the rally is over for now and a longer-term correction is starting. I do not expect that. The bull market support is around $26 and rising.

Australian XGD, 92-96 crossed to BUY, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to SELL 6228.7/-4.22% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $6503)
*comment: The 92-96 index sold. The structure is turning bearish. The short term rise finally showed some strength but I think the bottom still needs to be confirmed, probably by buying back the 92-96 index. The long term support is still holding and is positioned between $5600-5800. This area might be the target for a longer-lasting bottom but let's first see if 92-96 can buy back and hold. The positions that I added in the last few days have very tight stops. I am targeting $6500-6700 for the bounce, and then we will see. NEW: the 92-96 bought back. I am taking my profits today. If the price falls from here I am a buyer in the $5600-5800 region.