The State Of Indices, 17/5/2022

 SandP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 14 days, -4.21% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4008)

*comment: S and P chart is in bearish configuration. The 218-222 index support (since 2020) has been broken. That was the critical support. Rallies should be sold from now on. The downside targets $3804 then $3680 then $3495.

HUI, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $249.07)
*comment: The HUI sold the 92-96. All my correction targets have been exceeded. The only thing left standing is the uptrend line going back to October 2021 which we are at right now. There is also a trendline that started in September 2018 and is currently giving support at around $220. This support might be the target for the final bottom if we are in the middle of a crash similar to the 2008 crash. I still expect this current trendline to hold, at least short term so I am a buyer with tight stops. The target for a bounce is 265ish.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 21 days, -12.52% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11662)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The support has been breached again. The first downside target ($11404) has been hit. Time to short rallies.

Russell, last signal 35-39 SELL, 17 days, -8.1% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1783)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration. The first target $1710 has been hit. Very short term I'd still expect a rally back to touch the 16-20 and test the breakdown level but now it is time to short rallies.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 128 days, +84.42% (also, 16-20 to BUY 2.83/-1.74% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.88%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. Finally, there is some interaction with the 16-20 index. The trend support is at 2.5-2.6%ish. The bull market support is at 2% and rising. I think that the only thing that can reverse this trend is eighter the end of FED's tightening policy or an outright market crash.

XAU, last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, +2.96% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $125.81)
*comment: The bull signal ended. The price is still above the February low and above the uptrend line. The structure is still not bearish. Short term we are very oversold so some immediate strength should be expected.

ASA, last signal 92-96 SELL, 7 days, -9.01% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.17)
*comment: The first among the gold indices to sell the 92-96 index. It officially is in a bearish configuration now. There is a convergence of the SKI indices in mid-June that could be a target for a possible bounce.

Bitcoin, Last signal 92-96 SELL, 10 days, -15.29% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30072
*comment: After the crash of the last few weeks the price is still above the uptrend line that started in March 2020 at about 5K. The trendline support at 28K was breached but quickly recovered. If this cannot hold the next downside target is 19Kish. A more probable immediate scenario is a rally back to $36K-38K to test the breakdown.

COPX Copper miners, last signal 92-96 SELL (in tandem with 218-222), 3 days, +5.06% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $36.1)
*comment: COPX failed to hold on at the $38 level. It will take some time to turn the whole structure bearish but it will happen eventually if there is no quick turnaround. The downside target is previous long term support at $33ish.

GDX, 92-96 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY (cannot buy tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $31.18)
*comment: The 92-96 index sold. It will take some time for the SKI structure to turn bearish but it will eventually happen if the $29-30 cannot hold. A small rally will buy the 92-96 back but it will be xxed. Considering that the price is at the long term support (going back to the 2016 high) such a buy signal would be a positive development but if then it sells again there is a probability of a fall to the next support which is currently around $25. This support ($25) is emanating from the Jan 2016 bottom so it is very important for the very long term structure of this bull market. This is the red line that cannot be crossed if the bull market is to persist.

GDXJ, last signal 92-96 SELL, 4 days, -0.77% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $37.46)
*comment: The 92-96 true bull market has failed. The $37 level needs to hold otherwise a price collapse is probable down to $26 and then $24.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 99 days, +0.85% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on BUY; current $170.4)
*comment: GLD chart is still in bullish configuration. The correction has exceeded all my targets and has reached the 92-96 index. The fall needs to stop soon or this will turn ugly. The trend support is holding so far but there is a potential to sell the 92-96 and 218-222 indexes. If the fall continues the target is in the $155-160 range.

SLV, last signal 92-96 SELL, 5 days, +1.94% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.93)
*comment: SLV's 92-96 true bull signal failed. The SKI structure is already bearish and it seems that the first target is 18.5ish. An immediate turnaround would push the price back above the long term support but then it will have a lot of resistance to clear before the structure changes to positive.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 29 days, -2.75% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $118.75)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. Since the price during the consolidation touched the 16-20 index it just collapsed through the support. It might be forming a short term low now but this is an ugly looking chart. The downside target is $111ish. Short term upside target is $121ish.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 48 days,
-15.07% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $115.86)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The last three days look like the price is trying to find some support. I think that only a change in FED's policy or an outright market crash can turn this chart around. Short term upside targets $120ish and then $130ish.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 109 days, +133.31% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL>>to BUY 154.34/-15.06% or lower; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $181.7)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish triangle has been developing since the top in March 2022. The current breakout level is $175-180ish, and the support is $150ish. I expect the triangle to be broken to the upside signalling the start of a new leg up. The timeframe is mid-May 2022. Technically there is no serious resistance before $300.

URA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 13 days, -13.62% (double sell with 92-96) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.48)
*comment: The correction of the last rally has resulted in a double sell 35-39/92-96. The price is now approaching the very long term support line that goes back to Apr 2020. If this support ($19ish) fails a serious crash is in the cards, probably down to $17 and then $13. The SKI configuration is not bullish anymore but it will take time to fully turn bearish.

USERX, last signal 92-96 SELL, 4 days, -0.37%, run pattern in-progress 1D/2U/+2.28%perday, xxing=off_on_on (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $10.72)
*comment: The 92-96 bull market failed. The correction reached $10.28 the mega important level that was marked at the 2016 top. Touching this area resulted in an instant bounce but it is too early to declare a bottom. Since all other options are now out of the picture the only important thing is that the price holds at this level. If it doesn't the next target area is $8.5ish. I am buying for a bounce but with very tight stops.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 187 days, +10.78% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.86)
*comment: The UUP is in a true bull configuration. The price is now above the long term resistance ($27.19) and is holding. I still expect the retest of $27.19 from above but for now, the price looks strong. The longer the price is holding above this level the better chance for an outbreak that will target $33.52.

Australian XGD, last signal 92-96 SELL, 2 days, +0.72% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $6122)
*comment: The 92-96 index sold but the overall performance of the Aussie stocks compared to the US stocks was positive. That is a good sign. Having said that all short-term and medium-term support has been broken so the picture is not rosy at all. The last and long term support is still holding and is positioned between $5600-5800. Hopefully, we do not need to hit it to find support. I am ready to add to my positions for a short term bounce and then will reassess my long term strategy.