The State Of Indices 02/05/2022

 SandP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 3 days, -1.24% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 crossed to SELL; current $4131)

*comment: As I have been expecting for the last few weeks the price has come down to test the 218-222 index and for now it is still holding but hardly. For the last two days, the price action was pretty bullish refusing to close under the February low at $4114. That is especially true combined with the 10y yield being rejected by the 3% level and moreover by the sentiment which is 100% bearish. My guess is that the 0.5% rate hike is now already absorbed by the market and that we will have to wait a few weeks more for the final decision if the next big move is up or down. I wouldn't be surprised to see the price back at $4500 soon and then struggle to overcome it. 10y yield is still the major tell. $4114-4200 is the crucial support. NEW: 218-222 sold! This is bad news because the 218-222 has been the support ever since May 2020. The target is now $3804 and then $3660 but I still think we are oversold here and need a relief rally before the sell-off. $4114 is still holding and the 10y yield is steady so there is still some support. If $4114 gives up on the closing basis I guess we are going down without the relief rally.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 73 days, +12.22% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $282.37)
*comment: The HUI chart is in bullish configuration. The 35-39 sold while on the true bull signal. I didn't expect to get there in a straight line but I do expect the 35-39 index to show some support. The most important thing now is to put a higher low in place. Anything above $280 will do but a lower price is ok too (up to $260) if just temporary. The time frame for the bottom is from mid-May to mid-June. I do expect the trading range between $270-330 for a couple of months.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 10 days, -7.48% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12334)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The support at $12430 is being tested and the price closed below it on Friday. We need instant reversal to prevent an imminent crash. The downside target for the first wave down is $11404. A further fall now seems inevitable but based on the sentiment and the 10y yield I'd say we should have some kind of a relief rally first.

Russell, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, -3.95% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1864)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration and $1894 was broken two days ago but in the last session the price closed above it again. Feels like a fakeout breakdown but we will see. NEW: We got another close below $1894 so it seems like the breakdown has been confirmed. The first target is $1710. Very short term I'd still expect a rally back to touch the 16-20 and test the breakdown level.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 117 days, +85.06% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.89%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. This is the most important chart to follow at the moment. The yield reached the 3% level briefly and then retraced. Rising over 3% seems almost inevitable but I expect it to consolidate at the current level or retrace towards 2.5-2.6% soon. The consolidation should temporarily relieve the pressure on the broad markets. After that, we will see.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, true BUY, onpath, notxxed, 60 days, +14.89% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $142.61)
*comment: The XAU is on a true bull signal. The correction started and quickly reached close to 61.8% Fibo retracements at $140. The most important thing now is to put in a low at or around the current level to confirm the bull market trend. Even a lower price is ok (up to $136) if just temporary. The time frame for the bottom is from mid-May till mid-June. I do expect the trading range between $136-165 for a couple of months. In the near future, it is important to buy back the 218-222 index.

ASA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, +0.05% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.56)

Bitcoin, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, -3.27% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $38474)
*comment: The BTC-USD bought the 92-96 index for the start of a true bull market. The buy has happened above the support trendline and in the right configuration. The traditional chart looks toppy but I consider this signal viable and am going long here with a tight stop loss ($38K). This stop will rise with the rising 92-96 index. The price needs to be above $45K by mid-May to prevent the sell signal but the real take-off level is over $48K. The current long term support is around 35K then $28K.

COPX Copper miners, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, +3.73% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $40.04)
*comment: COPX is testing breakout level from above ($38). So far the 35-39 sell signal is marking the bottom as it should. $40 should hold for the bullish case to stay strong.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 57 days, +10.55% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $34.99)
*comment: GDX is on a strong double buy signal. 92-96 is in command. The correction started and quickly reached 50% Fibo retracement at $35.2. The most important thing now is to put in a low at or around the current level to confirm the bull market trend. Even a lower price is ok (up to $33) if just temporary. The time frame for the bottom is from mid-May to mid-June. I do expect the trading range between $34-40 for a couple of months. In the near future, it is important to buy back the 218-222 index.

GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 18 days,
-7.81% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $42.95)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The SKI indices have lined up in bullish order. The correction started and quickly reached close to 61.8% Fibo retracement at $42.4. The most important thing now is to put in a low at or around the current level to confirm the bull market trend. Even a lower price is ok but it would be suspicious because it would go under 200 days SMA so it should be very brief. The time frame for the bottom is from mid-May till mid-June. I do expect the trading range between $42-50 for a couple of months.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 88 days, +4.7% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $176.91)
*comment: GLD chart is in a bullish configuration. The correction has reached 61.8% Fibo retracement of the last rally. The trend support is between $175-178 and is rising. I expect a trading range between $174-185 for the next couple of months.

SLV, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days, -9.11% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $21.04)
*comment: SLV bought back the 92-96 index for its true bull market. The SKI structure is appropriate. The correction is underway after the buy signal and it reached the old trendline. I expect the bottom to form around the current level. A 92-96 sell signal would ruin the bullish structure so it shouldn't happen (20.30ish). For the next couple of months, I expect the price to float in the $21-24 range.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 18 days, -0.85% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $121.07)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sold again and the price target at the $120 has been achieved therefore some consolidation until touch/ break of 16-20, around $123ish, is probable. NEW: The price did advance during the last 8 sessions and touched the 16-20 but then instantly collapsed. Not a good sign but the recent low still holds. Let's see if the price can consolidate above that last low because if it doesn't it is not good for S and P 500 and the whole relief rally might be just my wrong expectation.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 37 days,
-12.44% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $119.45)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The price has touched the lower boundary of the trend channel so we can expect a short term rally to touch the 16-20 at around $126-128. If the crash continues an immediate market crash becomes more probable.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 98 days, +105.66% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 crossed to SELL>> to BUY 187.02/+16.76% or higher, 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $160.17)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish triangle has been developing since the top in March 2022. The current breakout level is $170ish, and the support is $150ish. I expect the triangle to be broken to the upside signalling the start of a new leg up. The timeframe is mid-May 2022. Technically there is no serious resistance before $300.

URA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, -2.19% (double sell with 92-96) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $23.19)
*comment: The correction of the last rally has resulted in a double sell 35-39/92-96 which doesn't look good but a small rally will result in a double buy that would look pretty buyable. I am expecting some range trading between $23.5-26.5 for the next couple of months. The other option is, if the $23 cannot hold, fall to $21 for the next support. In that case, we cannot talk about bullish configuration anymore.

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed; 19 days, -8.77%, run pattern in-progress 1U/1D/
-0.17%perday, xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $12.07)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for the start of a true bull market. The correction reached close to the 61.8% Fibo retracement ($11.73). The most important thing now is to put in a low at or around the current level to confirm the bull market trend. There is not much space for further correction so if it happens it should only be very brief. The time frame for the bottom is from mid-May till mid-June. I do expect the trading range between $12-13.4 for a couple of months. The chart pattern of this last peak is taking the shape of a megaphone. For this reason in the longer-term time frame, I expect the price to visit the upper boundary of this megaphone at $14.5ish. Probably by mid-Aug. If by this time the price is below $13ish the bull market will seize to exist.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 176 days, +9.62% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.57)
*comment: The UUP is in the true bull configuration. The price is now above the long term resistance ($27.19) and approaching the highs of the Corona outbreak in March 2020. These levels have not been successfully held for more than 3 days back in 2020 so it seems to me that we are approaching some kind of the top. This is especially true if taking into account the steep rise that led to today. The minimum we should expect is the test of the $27.2 very soon. If after this correction this level can be taken out again the dollar will go ballistic with the UUP target at $33.52. I'd say the beginning of June is the critical period for the breakout or breakdown.

Australian XGD, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 53 days, +15.95% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $6949)
*comment: The XGD finally broke $7400 and that resulted in a correction. The 218-222 bought and sold so we can expect some more struggle to form the proper bottom to confirm the bull market trend. The confirmation should come in the form of a new 218-222 buy. The recent 16-20 buy should help in that task. If the current support ($6767) fails to hold the next support is at $6500. If the Aussie market outperforms the USA gold market in the next two weeks (expected) I think the Aussie correction will be over soon and we move sideways/up for a while increasing the pressure to the $7400 again.