The State Of Indices 23/4/2022

 SandP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, -5.32% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $4271)

*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16-20 bought, as expected, and now we can say it definitely didn't mark the low. $4350 is breached to the downside again and in my opinion, the test of the 218-222 support is now inevitable. If the 218-222 breaks down either it will mark the low, as it did every time it was touched since it bought, in May 2020 or it will mark the breakdown with an immediate target at $3804 and then at $3660. $4114 is the February low so it better not be violated. Do or die time. p.s. Watch the 10y yield, if it is steady or falling while the $4100 is tested most probably there will be the bottom at that level again. If the yield is sharply rising over 3% a breakdown is in progress.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 68 days, +19.27% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 309.41/+3.1% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to NOT SELL 305.11/+1.67% or higher; current $300.11)
*comment: The HUI broke free, the chart is bullish. The SKI bullish structure is developing nicely. The short term support has been violated but the 16-20 is most probably buying on Monday to keep from further sinking. Also, the 35-39 support is in close vicinity for more help. If we have peaked medium-term and for the purpose of maintaining the bullish structure the most important thing now is to put a higher low in place. The price of the low doesn't matter so much but anything above $280 will do. Even a lower price is ok (up to $260) if just temporary. The time frame for the bottom is between one and two months, so from mid-May till mid-June. This is all under the condition that we have peaked, if not the upside target is still $350.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 5 days, -3.7% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $12830)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell made the chart short term bearish again. To turn the chart bullish $16000 needs to be cleared and then held long enough for a buy-sell of 92-96. If the 35-39 buys back quickly that will turn short term configuration bullish with a possibility to attack that $16K target. The bearish scenario is the 35-39 doesn't buy back and the price drops to $12500ish and tests/exceeds the previous low. I think the chances are 50:50 between these two scenarios until the last week of Apr. If the 35-39 doesn't buy back in this period the bullish scenario goes out of the picture very quickly. So, it is a do or die time for the tech sector. NEW: We are entering the last week of April and the price action followed the second scenario from above, it is dangerously close to $12555. This is the last line of support and if it breaks the first target is $12023 but ultimately $11004-11404.

Russell, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1940)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration and an attempt to break into the old trading range $2100-2300 was rejected. On the other hand, the 35-39 sell has cleared all xxing and a new 35-39 buy would be clearly short term bullish with an implication that a rally to $2300 is possible. To become bullish again, longer-term, it needs to go above $2300. The most probable scenario for me is still a test of the bottom of the recent range at $1900. This bottom must hold in order to prevent a serious leg down that could take us quickly all the way to $1650. NEW: Yesterday's 35-39 buy has been instantly sold. That is not bullish but the price is still above $1900. Let's see if it can hold.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 112 days, +86.28% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.91%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The yield reached the 3% level briefly and then retraced. Rising over 3% seems almost inevitable but I expect it to consolidate or retrace very soon. The short term support is at 2.5-2.6%. The consolidation should temporarily relieve the pressure on the broad markets. NEW: The broad markets have plunged for the last two days but the yield has been steady, is that the ray of hope emerging?

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, true BUY, onpath, notxxed, 55 days, +21.76% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 158.43 or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 crossed to SELL>>to BUY 162.78/+7.7% or higher; current $151.14)
*comment: the XAU is on a true bull signal. The short term support has been violated but the 16-20 is most probably buying on Monday to keep from further sinking. Also, the 35-39 support is in the close vicinity for more help. If we have peaked medium-term (218-222 buy signal has quickly sold) and for the purpose of maintaining the bullish structure the most important thing now is to put in a higher low in place. The price of the low doesn't matter so much but anything above $140 will do. Even a lower price is ok (up to $136) if just temporary. The time frame for the bottom is between one and two months, from mid-May till mid-June. This is all under the condition that we have peaked, if not the upside target is still $196.

ASA, on 35-39 BUY, true Buy, onpath, notxxed, 54 days, +5.21% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to NOT SELL 22.59/+5.51 or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $21.41)

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 11 days, -1.22% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to SELL $39338; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $39638)
*comment: The $34-36K area survived the test and the new 35-39 buy signal led to the testing of the upper resistance at $48K. The $48K (92-96 index) rejected the rise that could have led to a new bull market. After the simultaneous 16-20 and 35-39 buy a possible rise above $45K would generate a 92-96 buy to complete a powerful triple buy, similar to the gold sector. Only the continuation of the crash down below $35K will prevent this bullish scenario to realise. This is a very interesting situation and it does aline with the 'do or die' setup in Nasdaq. I am on the verge of pulling the trigger here but I will wait for the signal.

COPX Copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 79 days, +11.87% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY; 35-39 to NOT SELL 42.61/+3.93% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $41.0)
*comment: COPX broke out of the $38 level. The 16-20 should keep providing support while the price is in process of breaking the 2021 high. The support is now at $42.5-43.5 and it was broken today but the 16-20 buy is kicking in for some support. $40 should hold for the bullish case to stay strong.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 52 days, +16.71% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 38.36/+3.84% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to NOT SELL 38.11/+3.17% or higher; current $36.94)
*comment: GDX is on a strong double buy signal. 92-96 is in command. The short term support has been violated but the 16-20 is most probably buying on Monday to keep from further sinking. Also, the 35-39 support is in the close vicinity for more help. If we have peaked medium-term (if 218-222 buy signal quickly sells) and for the purpose of maintaining the bullish structure, the most important thing now is to put a higher low in place. The price of the low doesn't matter so much but anything above $34 will do. Even a lower price is ok (up to $33) if just temporary. The time frame for the bottom is between one and two months, so from mid-May till mid-June. This is all under the condition that we have peaked, if not the upside target is still at $45ish.

GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 13 days, -2.1% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 46.88/+2.78 or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $45.61)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The SKI indices have lined up in bullish order. The short term support has been violated but the 16-20 is most probably buying on Monday to keep from further sinking. Also, the 35-39 support is in the close vicinity for more help. If we have peaked medium-term and for the purpose of maintaining the bullish structure the most important thing now is to put a higher low in place. The price of the low doesn't matter so much but anything above $43 will do. Even a lower price is ok but it would be suspicious because it would go under 200 days SMA so it should be very brief. The time frame for the bottom is between one and two months, so from mid-May till mid-June. This is all under the condition that we have peaked, if not the upside target is still $55ish.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 83 days, +6.7% (also, 16-20 to BUY 179.14/-0.64% or lower; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $180.29)
*comment: GLD chart is in a bullish configuration. Currently, the price is in an ascending triangle which should resolve to the upside by the last week of May 2022. The triangle resistance is at $185. The trend support is between $175-178 and is rising.

SLV, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 9 days, -3.63% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 to NOT SELL $23.3/+4.44% or higher; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.31)
*comment: SLV bought back the 92-96 index for its true bull market. The SKI structure is appropriate. I am very bullish here, the immediate target at $25.5 and then $27ish. The 16-20 has been bought and this support is buyable. If it is not able to hold the next support is at $21.5ish maybe even lower but it is all good as long as the 92-96 is holding.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 13 days, -0.57% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $121.42)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sold again and the price target at the $120 has been achieved therefore some consolidation until touch/ break of 16-20, around $123ish, is probable.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 32 days,
-12.04% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $119.99)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The price has touched the lower boundary of the trend channel so we can expect a short term rally to touch the 16-20 at around $128-130. If the crash continues an immediate market crash becomes more probable.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 93 days, +105.35% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on BUY, 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $159.93)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish triangle has been developing since the top in March 2022. The current breakout level is $180ish, and the support is $150ish. I expect the triangle to be broken to the upside signalling the start of a new leg up. The timeframe is mid-May 2022. Technically there is no serious resistance before $300.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 32 days, -6.11% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 26.16/+6.99% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $24.45)
*comment: The execution of a true buy 35-39 signal marked a breakout and acceleration. The next target is $30ish but the 92-95 index must be overcome first so I am expecting some range trading between $23.5-26.5 first. NEW: Consolidation seems over, the 92-96 buy signal has been generated. The buy signal didn't mark the top, a strong rally to $30 and above is likely to take place. Short term trend support is around $27 and it was hit today. Longer-term support is at $24. NEW: The price is moving toward the long term support ($24). If the 92-96 quickly sells and rebuys without selling the 35-39 a new bull market will be born.

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed; 14 days, -4.61%, run pattern in-progress 1U/2D/
-3.57%perday, xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 12.8/+1.43% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $12.62)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for the start of a true bull market. The short term support has been violated but the 16-20 is most probably buying on Monday to keep from further sinking. Also, the 35-39 support is in the close vicinity for more help. If we have peaked medium-term and for the purpose of maintaining the bullish structure the most important thing now is to put a higher low in place. The price of the low doesn't matter so much but anything above $12 will do. Even a lower price is ok (up to $11.5-11.75) if just temporary. The time frame for the bottom is between one and two months, so from mid-May till mid-June. This is all under the condition that we have peaked, if not the upside target is still $14.-14.5.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 171 days, +7.55% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.05)
*comment: The UUP is in the true bull configuration. The recent top has been exceeded so that's that. The price is now approaching the $27.19 level which is the most important for this UUP chart. That level marked the 2008 high during the GFC and it has been a concrete wall for the price appreciation except for a few days during the initial panic of the Covid crisis. If this level can be taken out the dollar will go ballistic with the UUP target at $33.52. The current support is $26.4ish

Australian XGD, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 49 days, +22.01% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $7313)
*comment: The XGD finally broke $7400. The 218-222 bought and I think that confirms the breakout. The next stop is $8000, then 9000+ but we might see the consolidation first. The trend support is around $7000, then $6500ish. NEW: As expected the consolidation started, and the price is falling back towards the support. The $7000, supported by the 16-20 index, should hold at least during this first wave down. If we have peaked medium-term the higher low should be put in during the next month or two and it should be above $6500.