State Of Indices, 13/04/2022

 SandP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 16 days, -2.53% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $4397)

*comment: The chart is still in a bearish configuration but it is on a 35-39 true buy signal. If the price goes above $4704 and then holds above the $4500ish for long enough to sell-buy the 92-96, a new bull market would be triggered. I am sceptical but everything is possible. As a more probable scenario, I am looking for a retrace back to $4350 to touch/buy 16-20. Then we will see. NEW: So far so good, the 16-20 started breaking towards the buy, as expected. In the next two weeks, we will see if the price is going to challenge the 218-222. If it does and the 218-222 breaks down we might be witnessing the start of a serious crash probably down to $3660. This is the condition to watch. As a confirmation 10y yield should be monitored too. The 218-222 breakdown would be accompanied by yields surging quickly above 3-3.2%.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 61 days, +28.46% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 crossed to BUY; current $323.23)
*comment: The HUI broke free, the chart is bullish. The first target has been hit and consolidation is in progress between $280-320. The SKI bullish structure is developing nicely and any future drop will be met with the 16-20 and 35-39 support. It seems that the correction is taking the form of an ascending triangle with the breakout level at $325 and rising support, currently around $308. During the last week, the $325 level has been attacked daily and it rejected the advance every time so I think we need to revisit the bottom of the triangle around $305-308 before a new attempt. If the triangle breaks down the support is around $280-300.

Nasdaq, last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, -0.3% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY $13615/+1.82% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 crossed to SELL; current $13371)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. This 35-39 sell makes the chart short term bearish again. To turn the chart bullish $16000 needs to be cleared and then held long enough for a buy-sell of 92-96. If the 35-39 buys back quickly that will turn short term configuration bullish again with a possibility to attack that $16K target. The bearish scenario is the 35-39 doesn't buy back and the price drops to $12500ish and tests/exceeds the previous low. I think the chances are 50:50 between these two scenarios until the last week of Apr. If the 35-39 doesn't buy back in this period the bullish scenario goes out of the picture very quickly. So, it is a do or die time for the tech sector.

Russell, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 to SELL 2088/+5.11% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1986)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration and an attempt to break into the old trading range $2100-2300 was rejected. On the other hand, the 35-39 sell has cleared all xxing and a new 35-39 buy would be clearly short term bullish with an implication that a rally to $2300 is possible. To become bullish again, longer-term, it needs to go above $2300. The most probable scenario for me is still a test of the bottom of the recent range at $1900. This bottom must hold in order to prevent a serious leg down that could take us quickly all the way to $1650.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 105 days, +74.68% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.72%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The price has broken above the recent high and heading towards 3%. If the acceleration continues we should start worrying about the equity markets. A stock market melt-up scenario that many analysts predict doesn't seem probable before yields stop rising and consolidate.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, true BUY, onpath, notxxed, 48 days, +32.09% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to BUY 165.71/+1.07% or higher; current $163.96)
*comment: the XAU is on a true bull signal. The first target has been hit so I expect a trading range between $140-165. It seems that the correction is taking the form of an ascending triangle with the breakout level at $164 and rising support, currently around $156. During the last week, the $164 level has been attacked daily and it rejected the advance every time so I think we need to revisit the bottom of the triangle around $155 before a new attempt. If the triangle breaks down the support is around $150ish.


ASA, on 35-39 BUY, true Buy, onpath, notxxed, 47 days, +10.81% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL)

Bitcoin, 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true)(also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $39461)
*comment: The $34-36K area survived the test and the new 35-39 buy signal led to the testing of the upper resistance at $48K. The $48K (92-96 index) rejected the rise that could have led to a new bull market. If the fall continues for another 7% the 35-39 will sell again but at that moment the most interesting setup will take place. Only a strong and fast crash down below the recent support will prevent one of many bullish scenarios that will be in place to unfold. These scenarios include bullish double and triple buys. This would be a very interesting situation and it does aline with the 'do or die' setup in Nasdaq. So there is only one bearish scenario and that is a relentless and fast fall down below $35K. Let's see what happens.

COPX Copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 72 days, +21.88% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $44.67)
*comment: COPX broke out of the $38 level. The 16-20 should keep providing support while the price is in process of breaking 2021 high. The support is now at
$42.5-43.5 and I expect it to be tested.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 45 days, +25.75% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 38.16/-4.12% or lower; current $39.8)
*comment: GDX is on a strong double buy signal. 92-96 is in command. The target was hit so consolidation should take place between $34-40. It seems that the correction is taking the form of an ascending triangle with the breakout level at $40 and rising support, currently around $37.8. During the last week, the $40 level has been attacked daily and it rejected the advance every time so I think we need to revisit the bottom of the triangle around $38 before a new attempt. If the triangle breaks down the support is around $34-36.

GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 6 days, +5.11% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $48.97)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The SKI indices have lined up in bullish order. An immediate 92-96 sell signal is not possible anymore. It seems that the correction is taking the form of a symmetrical triangle with the breakout level at $49 and rising support, currently around $45.8. During the last week, the $49 level has been attacked daily and it rejected the advance every time so I think we need to revisit the bottom of the triangle around $46 before a new attempt. If the triangle breaks down the support is around $44.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 76 days, +8.76% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $183.77)
*comment: GLD chart is in a bullish configuration. The 16-20 signal was buyable. The trend support is between $175-178.

SLV, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, +1.38% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 23.27/-0.85% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $23.47)
*comment: SLV bought back the 92-96 index for its true bull market. The SKI structure is appropriate. I am very bullish here, the immediate target at $25.5 and then $27ish. The SLV true buy is the last piece of the puzzle in the overall bullish picture in the gold/silver sector. ALL indices are now aligned in a bullish manner and that is my major criteria for confirming valid signals. The last time this happened was in 2005.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, -0.57% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $121.41)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sold again and the price broke down and is now targeting the $119-120 region. The countertrend rally that I had been expecting seems less probable now but after hitting the target some consolidation until touch/ break of 16-20 is probable.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 25 days, -9.86% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $122.97)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The price has touched the lower boundary of the trend channel so we can expect a short term rally to touch the 16-20 at around $128-130. If the crash continues an immediate market crash becomes more probable.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 86 days, +110.93% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY, 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $164.27)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish triangle has been developing since the early March top, ranging between $130-205. I expect a resolution to the upside in the next two weeks. Technically there is no serious resistance before $300.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 25 days, +5.18% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 BUY executed today; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.39)
*comment: The execution of a true buy 35-39 signal marked a breakout and acceleration. The next target is $30ish but the 92-95 index must be overcome first so I am expecting some range trading between $23.5-26.5 first. NEW: Consolidation seems over, the 92-96 buy signal has been generated. The buy signal could mark a temporary high because the short term chart looks toppy. After consolidation, a strong rally to $30 and above is likely to take place. The structure is in place now. If the correction runs deeper than expected $24 is serious support.

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed; 7 days, +0.23%, run pattern in-progress 1D/1U/+1.3%perday, xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current price $13.26)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for the start of a true bull market. An instant 92-96 sell signal is not possible anymore. By the end of April, I am expecting a 218-222 buy to complete the bullish alignment of SKI indices. If we rally strongly starting now I expect $14-14.5ish to be significant resistance. The 16-20 and 35-39 now represent support and long positions should be added to around those levels. Based on the behaviour of the last few days I expect some weakness to take place short term. Probably to buy 16-20. If the correction runs deeper $12ish is good support.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 164 days, +6.64% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current price $26.82)
*comment: The price hit the upper boundary of the uptrend channel and that marked a top for now. We should see some consolidation around the current level. NEW: The upper boundary resistance seems like giving up. The acceleration is possible to the upside with the target of $27.2ish. Fits with a possible gold sector weakness.

Australian XGD, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 43 days, +22.26% (also, 16-20 crossed to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $7328)
*comment: The XGD price is approaching $7400 again. This level has been a firm obstacle to further advance during the last 3 weeks. If the breakout fails again, which I think is probable, we should fall back into the symmetrical triangle that has been developing since the beginning of March. The bottom boundary of the triangle should be revisited at around $6800 before the new attempt to breakout. If and when the breakout happens it will be marked by a new 218-222 buy signal with an immediate target of $8000 and then $9000+. If $6800 cannot hold the next support is around $6500.