State Of Indices 10/04/2022

 SandP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days, -0.52% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current price $4488)

*comment: The chart is still in a bearis configuration but it is on a 35-39 true buy signal. I expected 16sell/35buy combo to mark the high but it did not and the move extended to touch 92-96. If the price goes above $4704 and then holds above the $4500ish for long enough to sell-buy the 92-96, a new bull market would be triggered. I am sceptical but everything is possible. Right now, as a more probable scenario, I am looking for a retrace back to $4350 to touch/buy 16-20. Then we will see. NEW: Since the beginning of the bull back in 2020 the 218-222 index was the key support. The price bounced every time this index was touched. The last time this occurred was in Mar 2022 at around $4150. I am expecting this level to be tested soon.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 59 days, +28.18% (also, 16-20 to BUY 299.13/-7.26% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current price $322.53)
*comment: The HUI broke free, the chart is bullish. The first target has been hit and consolidation is in progress between $280-320. The SKI bullish structure is developing nicely and any future drop will be met with the 16-20 and 35-39 support. It seems that the correction is taking the form of an ascending triangle with the breakout level at $325 and rising support, currently around $308. The resolution of this triangle should be to the upside and I expect it to happen in the next two weeks. In this process, the 218-222 will buy and the bullish alignment of the SKI indices will be complete.

Nasdaq, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to BUY 14140/+3.13% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current price $13711)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 16sell/35buy combo did not mark the top but this 35-39 sell makes the chart short term bearish again. To turn the chart bullish $16000 needs to be cleared and then held long enough for a buy-sell of 92-96. If the 35-39 buys back quickly that will turn short term configuration bullish again with a possibility to attack that $16K target. The bearish scenario is the 35-39 doesn't buy back and the price drops to $12500ish and tests/exceeds the previous low. The chances between these scenarios for the next two weeks are 50:50 in my opinion. If the 35-39 doesn't buy back in this period the bullish scenario goes out of the picture very quickly. So, it is a do or die time for the tech sector.

Russell, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 SELL executed today; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1994)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration and an attempt to break into the old trading range $2100-2300 was rejected. On the other hand, this 35-39 sell has cleared all xxing and a new 35-39 buy would be clearly short term bullish with an implication that a rally to $2300 is possible. To become bullish again, longer-term, it needs to go above $2300. The more probable scenario for me is still a test of the bottom of the recent range at $1900. This bottom must hold in order to prevent a serious leg down that could take us down to $1650 quickly.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 103 days, +73.91% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.71%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The price has broken above the recent high and heading towards 3%. The 2.5% couldn't prevent further advance for long and my projection of a correction to 2%ish didn't pan out. If the acceleration continues we should start worrying about the equity markets. A stock market melt-up scenario that many analysts predict doesn't seem probable before the yields stop rising and consolidate.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, true BUY, onpath, notxxed, 46 days, +31.86% (also, 16-20 to BUY 151.78/-7.26% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $163.67)
*comment: the XAU is on a true bull signal. The first target has been hit so I expect a trading range between $140-165. It seems that the correction is taking the form of an ascending triangle with the breakout level at $164 and rising support, currently around $156. The resolution of this triangle should be to the upside and I expect it to happen in the next two weeks. In this process, the 218-222 will buy and the bullish alignment of the SKI indices will be complete.

ASA, on 35-39 BUY, true Buy, onpath, notxxed, 45 days, +10.17% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 21.84/-2.59% or lower; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 to SELL 20.71/-7.63% or lower; 218-222 on SELL)

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 14 days,
-4.76% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 to SELL 39399/-7.04% or lower; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $42383)
*comment: The $34-36K area survived the test and the new 35-39 buy signal led to the testing of the upper resistance at $48K. The $48K (92-96 index) rejected the rise that could have led to a new bull market. If the fall continues for another 7% the 35-39 will sell again but at that moment the most interesting setup will take place. Only a strong and fast crash down below the recent support will prevent one of many bullish scenarios that will be in place to unfold. These scenarios include bullish double and triple buys. This would be a very interesting situation and it does aline with the 'do or die' setup in Nasdaq. The alternative to this setup is if the price turns around immediately and buys the 92-96 for a true bull market which is again bullish. So there is only one bearish scenario and that is a relentless and fast fall down below $35K. Let's see what happens.

COPX Copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 70 days, +23.98% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current price $45.44)
*comment: COPX broke out of the $38 level. The 16-20 should keep providing support while the price is in process of breaking 2021 high. The support is now at $42-43ish and I expect it to be tested soon.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 43 days, +25.34% (also, 16-20 to BUY 36.73/-7.41% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $39.67)
*comment: GDX is on a strong double buy signal. 92-96 is in command. The target was hit so consolidation should take place between $34-40. It seems that the correction is taking the form of an ascending triangle with the breakout level at $40 and rising support, currently around $37.8. The resolution of this triangle should be to the upside and I expect it to happen in the next two weeks. In this process, the 218-222 will buy and the bullish alignment of the SKI indices will be complete.

GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, +3.93% (also, 16-20 to BUY 46.1/-4.79% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $48.42)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The SKI indices have lined up in bullish order. An immediate sell signal is still possible but not probable anymore. It seems that the correction is taking the form of a symmetrical triangle with the breakout level at $49 and rising support, currently around $45.8. The resolution of this triangle should be to the upside and I expect it to happen in the next two weeks. The 218-222 setup of GDXJ is a bit different than for other gold indices and allows for an immediate price jump to around $55ish before the resistance kicks in. If this jump happens before the other gold indices start moving then that would be a nice leading signal that the gold breakout is underway.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 74 days, +7.4% (also, 16-20 to SELL 182.3/+0.46% or higher; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $181.47)
*comment: GLD chart is in a bullish configuration. In my opinion, the 16-20 signal was buyable. If this 16-20 buy fails a drawdown shouldn't go lower than $174.

SLV, 92-96 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to SELL 21.26/-7.27% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current price $22.82)
*comment: SLV bought back the 92-96 index for its true bull market. The SKI structure is appropriate. I am very bullish here, the immediate target at $25.5 and then $27ish. The SLV true buy is the last piece of the puzzle in the overall bullish picture in the gold/silver sector. ALL indices are now aligned in a bullish manner and that is one of my crucial criteria for confirming valid bullish signals. The last time this happened was in 2005.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 4 days, -0.39% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $121.63)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sold again and the price broke down and is now targeting the $119-120 region. The countertrend rally that I had been expecting seems less probable now but after hitting the target some consolidation until touch/ break of 16-20 is probable.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, -8.28% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current price $125.12)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The price has touched the lower boundary of the trend channel so we can expect a short term rally to touch the 16-20 at around $128-130.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 84 days, +103.53% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on BUY, 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $158.51)
*comment: UCO rally continues. A bullish triangle has been developing since the early March top, ranging between $130-205. I expect a resolution to the upside in the next two weeks. Technically there is no serious resistance before $300.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 23 days, +5.61% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to NOT BUY 27.23/-0.98% or lower; 218-222 on BUY; current $27.5)
*comment: The execution of a true buy 35-39 signal marked a breakout and acceleration. The next target is $30ish but the 92-95 index must be overcome first so I am expecting some range trading between $23.5-26.5 first. NEW: Consolidation seems over, the 92-96 buy signal is expected soon. The buy signal could mark a temporary high but then a strong rally to $30 and above is likely to take place. The structure is in place now.

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed; 5 days, -0.98%, run pattern in-progress 3D/2U/+1.4%perday, xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 to BUY 12.48/-4.73% or lower; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 to SELL 12.11/-7.56% or lower; 218-222 on SELL, current price $13.1)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for the start of a true bull market. An instant 92-96 sell signal is not probable anymore. By the end of April, I am expecting a 218-222 buy to complete the bullish alignment of SKI indices. If we rally strongly starting now I expect $14-14.5ish to be significant resistance. The 16-20 and 35-39 now represent support and long positions should be added to around those levels.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 162 days, +6.04% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current price $26.67)
*comment: The price hit the upper boundary of the uptrend channel and that marked a top for now. We should see some consolidation around the current level.

Australian XGD, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 41 days, +18.62% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current price $7110)
*comment: The XGD price is approaching the apex of the symmetrical triangle that has been developing since the beginning of March. This configuration should be resolved to the upside and this resolution is going to be marked by a new 218-222 buy signal. Such a signal should be considered as a breakout with an immediate target of $8000 and then $9000+. The current support is $6500-6800.