The State Of Indices 22/4/2022

SandP, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 22 days, -2.61% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $4393)

*comment: The chart is still in a bearish configuration but it is on a 35-39 true buy signal. If the price goes above $4704 and then holds above the $4500ish for long enough to sell-buy the 92-96, a new bull market would be triggered. I am sceptical but everything is possible. As a more probable scenario, I am looking for a retrace back to $4350 to touch/buy 16-20. Then we will see. NEW: So far so good, the 16-20 bought, as expected. In the next two weeks, we will see if the price is going to challenge the 218-222 or the 16-20 buy is going to mark the bottom. For now, the 16-20 is marking the bottom but it is too early to say. If the 218-222 is challenged and it breaks down we might witness the start of a serious crash probably down to $3660. This is still far away but this is the condition to watch. As a confirmation 10y yield should be monitored too. The 218-222 breakdown would be accompanied by yields surging quickly above 3-3.2%. Currently, yields look like they need a pause before a further advance if any.

HUI, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 67 days, +23.0% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $309.5)
*comment: The HUI broke free, the chart is bullish. The SKI bullish structure is developing nicely and any future drop will be met with the 16-20 and 35-39 support. A steady rise should continue, first target $350. The trend support is in the $305-310 range and it was hit today. If it does not hold the next support level is in the $280-300 range.

Nasdaq, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 4 days, -1.18% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $13174)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell made the chart short term bearish again. To turn the chart bullish $16000 needs to be cleared and then held long enough for a buy-sell of 92-96. If the 35-39 buys back quickly that will turn short term configuration bullish with a possibility to attack that $16K target. The bearish scenario is the 35-39 doesn't buy back and the price drops to $12500ish and tests/exceeds the previous low. I think the chances are 50:50 between these two scenarios until the last week of Apr. If the 35-39 doesn't buy back in this period the bullish scenario goes out of the picture very quickly. So, it is a do or die time for the tech sector.

Russell, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 6 days, -1.66% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 crossed to SELL>>to BUY 2058.96/+3.39% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1991)
*comment: Russell is in a bearish configuration and an attempt to break into the old trading range $2100-2300 was rejected. On the other hand, the 35-39 sell has cleared all xxing and a new 35-39 buy would be clearly short term bullish with an implication that a rally to $2300 is possible. To become bullish again, longer-term, it needs to go above $2300. The most probable scenario for me is still a test of the bottom of the recent range at $1900. This bottom must hold in order to prevent a serious leg down that could take us quickly all the way to $1650. NEW: Yesterday's 35-39 buy has been instantly sold. That is not bullish but the price is still above $1900. Let's see if it can hold.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 111 days, +86.99% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 2.92%)
*comment: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The yield reached the 3% level briefly and then retraced. Rising over 3% seems almost inevitable but I expect it to consolidate or retrace very soon. The short term support is at 2.5-2.6%. The consolidation should temporarily relieve the pressure on the broad markets.

XAU, on 92-96 BUY, true BUY, onpath, notxxed, 54 days, +26.06% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to NOT SELL 158.84/+1.51% or higher; current $156.48)
*comment: the XAU is on a true bull signal. A 218-222 buy signal has been generated to complete the bullish alignment of the SKI indices. The steady rise should continue but that doesn't mean we will not have consolidations along the way. A medium-term target is $196. The trend support in the $150-155 range. NEW: the short term support has been hit today, the 218-222 is breaking to sell. We will see if it can hold here or we drop to the next level of support at $150ish. The bullish configuration is intact.

ASA, on 35-39 BUY, true Buy, onpath, notxxed, 53 days, +8.35% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.05)

Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 10 days, +1.7% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $40807)
*comment: The $34-36K area survived the test and the new 35-39 buy signal led to the testing of the upper resistance at $48K. The $48K (92-96 index) rejected the rise that could have led to a new bull market. After the simultaneous 16-20 and 35-39 buy a possible rise above $45K would generate a 92-96 buy to complete a powerful triple buy, similar to the gold sector. Only the continuation of the crash down below $35K will prevent this bullish scenario to realise. This is a very interesting situation and it does aline with the 'do or die' setup in Nasdaq. I am on the verge of pulling the trigger here but I will wait for the signal.

COPX Copper miners, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 78 days, +17.65% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 46.18/+7.1% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $43.12)
*comment: COPX broke out of the $38 level. The 16-20 should keep providing support while the price is in process of breaking the 2021 high. The support is now at $42.5-43.5 and it was hit today.

GDX, on 92-96 BUY (double BUY with 35-39), onpath, xxed, 51 days, +20.35% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $38.09)
*comment: GDX is on a strong double buy signal. 92-96 is in command. A steady rise should continue but that doesn't mean we will not have consolidations along the way. A medium-term target is at $45ish. The trend support is in the $37-38 range and it was hit today.

GDXJ, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 12 days, +1.65% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $47.36)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for a true bull market. The SKI indices have lined up in bullish order. The immediate target is $55ish. The trend support is around $46.

GLD, on 92-96 BUY onpath, xxed, 82 days, +7.75% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $182.06)
*comment: GLD chart is in a bullish configuration. Currently, the price is in an ascending triangle which should resolve to the upside by the last week of May 2022. The triangle resistance is at $185. The trend support is between $175-178 and is rising.

SLV, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, -1.56% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 23.49/+3.07% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.79)
*comment: SLV bought back the 92-96 index for its true bull market. The SKI structure is appropriate. I am very bullish here, the immediate target at $25.5 and then $27ish. The 16-20 is breaking to BUY and this support should be bought. If it is not able to hold the next support is at $21.5ish.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -0.17% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $121.9)
*comment: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sold again and the price target at the $120 has been achieved therefore some consolidation until touch/ break of 16-20, around $123ish, is probable.

TLT, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 31 days,
-11.49% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $120.75)
*comment: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The price has touched the lower boundary of the trend channel so we can expect a short term rally to touch the 16-20 at around $128-130. If the crash continues an immediate market crash becomes more probable.

UCO, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 92 days, +116.33% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 171.47/+1.77% or higher; 35-39 on BUY, 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $168.48)
*co mment: UCO rally continues. A bullish triangle has been broken to the upside signalling the start of a new leg up. Technically there is no serious resistance before $300.

URA, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 31 days, -2.3% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $25.44)
*comment: The execution of a true buy 35-39 signal marked a breakout and acceleration. The next target is $30ish but the 92-95 index must be overcome first so I am expecting some range trading between $23.5-26.5 first. NEW: Consolidation seems over, the 92-96 buy signal has been generated. The buy signal didn't mark the top, a strong rally to $30 and above is likely to take place. Short term trend support is around $27 and it was hit today. Longer-term support is at $24.

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed; 13 days, -1.44%, run pattern in-progress 1U/1D/-3.91%perday, xxing=on_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $13.04)
*comment: The 92-96 bought for the start of a true bull market. By the end of April, I am expecting a 218-222 buy to complete the bullish alignment of SKI indices. I expect $14-14.5ish to be significant resistance so that is the first target. The 16-20 and 35-39 now represent support and long positions should be added to around those levels. Short term trend support is at $12.5-13.

UUP, on 92-96 true BUY, 170 days, +6.92% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $26.89)
*comment: The price hit the upper boundary of the uptrend channel and that marked a top for now. We should see some consolidation around the current level. The first upside target is $27.2. Support $26.4ish

Australian XGD, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 48 days, +25.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $7504)
*comment: The XGD finally broke $7400. The 218-222 bough and I think that confirms the breakout. The next stop is $8000, then 9000+ but we might see the consolidation first. The trend support is around $7000, then $6500ish.