The State Of Indices

SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 29 days, -1.69% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $3992)

*Comment/Feb01: SandP is in a bullish configuration. The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated and is holding (joined today with a 35-39 buy signal). The 36-month MAV sell signal (crash indicator) has failed again. I am now long this market ($4100 entry). No stop loss for now but will consider closing the position if the price closes below 3990 two days in a row.

New/Feb24: Here we are testing the breakout point at $4000. Today was the first close under $3990. I am holding for now.

New/Mar08: Still holding but will close the long position on further weakness.

HUI, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -4.24% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $212.01)

*comment/Feb17: HUI SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trade is clear.

NEW/Mar01: The 211.89 level did provide the floor ($210.67 intraday bottom), the expected bounce is in progress. Let's see how the price behaves around $225. If it can rise above and stay there maybe my range trading thesis can survive. Otherwise, a new leg down should start and threaten to end the 92-96 index buy signal.   

NEW/Mar08: The bounce did not manage to get the price above $225 and hold. My thesis that the price will range between $230 and $270 till May/June was wrong.  The intraday top was$226.36 and then the next day the price crashed below the $225 level. This is short-term bearish and confirms that another leg down is in progress. In the next few weeks, the 92-96 buy signal will be tested and probably ended. The downside target is $200ish. If the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive the price needs to bottom soon ($200ish?) and start a steady rise to reach the $260 level by the end of May.

$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 28 days, +0.4% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $12215)

*comment/Feb01: The chart is transitioning to a bullish configuration. The resistance level at $12K has been broken out. The 92-96 index bought for a double buy with the 35-39 index which is on the path of trades. We could see a run to the $13.5K level quickly. Selling the 35-39 index in the next two weeks (below $11.5K) would be a problem.

NEW/Mar02: A test from above of the breakout point at $12K is in progress. So far so good.

$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 35 days, +1.35% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1879)

*comment/Feb01: The SKI configuration is bullish. The double 35-39/92-96 signal was generated and it is holding. The bearish trendline is already broken out and it all seems bullish. I am looking for a long entry.

NEW/Mar01: Haven't bought yet. The reason is I am happy with my SandP long position and also do not trust the market with the 10yy over 4%.

$TNX - 10Y yield, last signal 92-96 SELL, 3 days, -0.18% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 breaking  to BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.98%)

*comment/Mar02: The 10yy is in a bull market but it is in a late stage and everything is set up to end it soon (?). Since the correction hit 3.375% the rally started and blew through the resistance and unexpectedly for me managed to keep the pace equal to the September/October 2022 rally thus rising over 4% again. The SKI configuration now provides three potential scenarios. First (bullish), continuing strong rally to blow through the old high (4.2%) toward 5%+. This scenario doesn't require any new SKI signals. Second (bullish), the rally slows down to sell the 92-96 buy signal and then buys the 16-20 index and the 92-96 index without selling the 35-39. This causes a surge above the old high (4.2%) toward the 5%+ level. Third (bearish), the rally slows down to sell the 92-96 buy signal and drops through a 16-20 index buy signal to eventually sell the 35-39 index. This causes a drop down to test the 3.375%. I am not able to predict what happens but the first two scenarios are obviously not going to be well received by the general markets, so watch out.

NEW/Mar03: 92-96 finally slowed down and generated the sell signal. Only scenarios 2 and 3 are now left active. 

XAU, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -4.39% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $111.25)

*comment/Feb17: XAU SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trades is clear. The life run low has marked the exact bottom.

New/Feb24: We have reached the support level at $112.5. Daily indicators are deep in oversold territory and a bounce is expected. 

NEW/Mar02: The bounce is in progress, let's see how the price behaves around $122-125. If it can rise above and stay there maybe my range trading thesis can survive. Otherwise, a new leg down should start to threaten to end the 92-96 index buy signal.  

NEW/Mar08: The bounce did not manage to get the price high enough. The medium-term support has been broken and we can expect the next support to kick in around $107.5. My thesis about range-bound movement till May/June was wrong.  This is short-term bearish. In the next few weeks, the 92-96 buy signal will be tested and probably ended. September 2022 low ($90.08) seems too far for now but in the worst-case scenario, the $100 might be in the crosshairs for the next significant low.  If the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive the price needs to bottom soon ($107ish?) and start a steady rise to reach the $125 level by the end of April.

ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 42 days, -9.85% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $14.1)

*comment/Mar02: 92-96 generated a true buy signal simultaneously with the $15 resistance being broken through. The correction after the rise is now testing that $15 breakout level. If this is the bottom, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern will start emerging. This pattern will have a neckline at around $17, and if the pattern comes out symmetrical, this level ($17) should be hit at the beginning of April. This would fit with my old thesis of a range-bound move ($14-$17) until May, but I am not so sure of it anymore. It is worth mentioning again that during the last two years, ASA had the most accurate signals in the gold sector so this chart is worth special attention. 

NEW/Mar08: Unlike HUI, XAU, GDX and GDXJ the ASA price (and USERX) didn't violate the recent low so if the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. Reminder again, in the last two years the ASA almost always differed from the rest and was almost always right.

Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 52 days, +3.76% (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $21986

*comment/Mar02: BTC is in a bullish configuration. $25K was hit and provided resistance for now.

NEW/Mar08: 35-39 sold, 16-20 bought. If this is not the bottom of the correction we could go down to 18K again. A new 35-39 buy signal should serve as a launch pad to break the 25K resistance. I think it all depends on 10yy.

COPX (copper miners ETF), 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to SELL 39.51/+4.06% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $37.97)

*comment/Mar02: COPX is in a bullish constellation. The price is testing the $38 level from above. If the level can hold and the price rises to buy back the 218-222 we might see a quick run up to $47. If not a drop to $34-35 is probable. 

NEW/Mar/08: the 35-39 signal ended today with a nice profit. Today's sell signal happened exactly at the critical $38 level. If this is the bottom there is a lot of work to do to clear the overhead resistance (16-20 sell, 35-39 buy, 218-222 buy) and start a new leg up over $42. In my opinion, the more probable scenario is a quick drop to $35ish to test the 92-96 support. 

DXY (dollar index), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days +0.97% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $105.66)

*comment/Mar02: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is bearish. The breakdown level at $105 is being tested from below. If it can resist the price advance the 35-39 and 218-222 will sell for a new leg down. If not a rally to $107 is likely where the major resistance will be tested.  

GDX, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -4.62% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $26.81)

*comment/Mar02: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The correction target of $28 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $32 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $25-26 and rising.

New/Mar08: Approaching the major support ($25-26) for a test in the next few weeks.

GDXJ, last signal 35-39 SELL, 14 days, -6.37% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $32.48)

*comment/Mar02: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The correction target of $33 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $39 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $32-34 and rising.

New/Mar08: Approaching the major support for a test in the next few weeks.

GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, -1.3% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $168.54)

*comment/Mar02: The GLD chart structure is neutral. The 92-96 bullish, and the 35-39 bearish. The correction after the steep rise has hit the minimum target ($170) but I wouldn't exclude visiting $166 ($1780ish spot). The price is probable to be stuck between rising support ($166, $1780 spot) and horizontal resistance ($175ish, $1950 spot) for months. This rising support originates from 2018 low and must not be broken down or a severe fall could ensue. The rising 92-96 back prices will cross over this support line roughly in the middle of April ($168ish) so by this time the price must start advancing in order to keep the bullish SKI configuration.  

New/Mar08: Approaching the major support ($166, $1780 spot) for a test in the next couple of weeks.

SLV, last signal 35-39 SELL, 20 days, -10.16% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.4)

*comment/Feb09: The SLV chart constellation is now neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish position but the rest is bearish, especially because the $21 level, which resisted the price advance before, has now been lost again. The momentum indicates that the 92-96 support will be tested ($19ish) so that is the target for now. It will take months to rebuild the bullish setup and the important condition is that the 92-96 index buy signal survives the test. The end of March looks like the decision time.

NEW/Feb24: The target has been hit ($19) but there are no signs of a slowdown. The 92-96 index buy signal is still holding. $18 might be where the bottom is found.

NEW/Mar01: So far the bottom is at $18.89. See the comments above.

NEW/Mar08: Still pushing toward that $18 support area. The 92-96 buy signal will probably end in a couple of weeks if not sooner.

TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 18 days, -1.34% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $106.24)

*comment/Mar02: 35-39 sold, the resistance line is holding. The 92-96 index buy signal is still active but before the 35-39 buys back I wouldn't be too optimistic. It seems we are in no man's land until either 92-96 sells or 35-39 buys. 

TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 5 days, +2.35% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $101.82)

*comment/Mar02: The 92-96 index generated a buy signal but the 35-39 index sold. The price has been following falling 92-96 back prices since the 92-96 index has been touched on the way up in mid-January. This doesn't feel bullish regardless of the 92-96 index being on a buy signal.

UCO (crude oil ETF), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 4 days, -7.22% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 29.41/+7.41% or  higher; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.38)

*comment/Feb17: The price is ranging inside a horizontal contracting triangle since Aug 2022, therefore, producing a series of false signals and making it hard to decide if the setup is bullish or bearish. The triangle apex is positioned in March (22nd, $29ish) and by then a strong move up or down should start. The current resistance is $31ish and falling and the current support is $28ish and rising. Watch for these levels to be broken for a clue of the next move.

URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 2 days, -0.25% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20.16)

*comment/Mar02: The price couldn't stay above the $23 level for more than a day. We are back inside the trading range of the last 10 months ($18-$22). Let's see if the 92-96 buy signal can hold up and give the price a chance for another try at the breakout.

USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 43 days, -10.77%; run pattern in-progress 1U/3D/-1.55%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.11)

*comment/Mar02: USERX is on a true bull 92-96 signal but the 35-39 index is on a sell signal. The 35-39 sell signal should mark a low at least short-term. This is not how a bull market should start off but it is what it is. It is all about the $10.28 level and for now, it is resistance. We will not see a big move until that level is broken through properly. If the bottom forms around the recent low an inverse head and shoulder pattern will start appearing. The neckline of this pattern would be $10.28(!). Rising 92-96 back prices will cross this level at the beginning of May 2023 so in order not to end the bull market signal the price needs to slowly rise towards $10.28 during the next two months. The very-long term support is around $8.4-8.6 but if we get there the bull signal will end. 

NEW/Mar08: The price didn't break the recent low yet therefore the setup is still very similar to ASA. If the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. There is solid technical support around $8.9-9.0. If that can't hold the final and crucial long-term support is in the $8.0-8.4 area. The 92-96 index back prices are in the 8.4-9.13 area for the next 10 days.

XGD.AX, Australian gold index, last signal 35-39 SELL, 9 days, +1.85% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $5901)

*comment/Mar02: The XGD chart configuration is bullish. The correction has sold the 35-39 index but that signal marked the bottom and the bounce has brought the price back above $6000. Holding above the $6000 level could lead to a breakout double buy 35-39/218-222 signal at the end of March. Losing this level will be dangerous and can quickly deteriorate into an attempt to end the 92-96 buy signal. I am 70% long.

NEW/Mar08: Sold some on Monday, 55% long.