SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 40 days, -2.75% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $3948)
*Comment/Feb01: SandP is in a bullish configuration. The 92-96 true bull buy signal has been generated and is holding (joined today with a 35-39 buy signal). The 36-month MAV sell signal (crash indicator) has failed again. I am now long this market ($4100 entry). No stop loss for now but will consider closing the position if the price closes below 3990 two days in a row.
New/Feb24: Here we are testing the breakout point at $4000. Today was the first close under $3990. I am holding for now.
New/Mar08: Still holding but will close the long position on further weakness.
NEW/Mar10: I sold and went short. I wouldn't go short before the 92-96 index sold but I didn't want to be flat if the market opens gap down on Monday. I will reconsider my position on Monday. There is a confluence of back prices in mid-April around the $4000 level but with the current momentum and volatility in the debt market, I am not sure we will get there. That period is showing up in many other charts as the period to watch.
NEW/Mar17: Still short. The stop loss is at $4050.
HUI, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, -0.65% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $240.42)
*comment/Feb17: HUI SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trade is clear.
NEW/Mar01: The 211.89 level did provide the floor ($210.67 intraday bottom), the expected bounce is in progress. Let's see how the price behaves around $225. If it can rise above and stay there maybe my range trading thesis can survive. Otherwise, a new leg down should start and threaten to end the 92-96 index buy signal.
NEW/Mar08: The bounce did not manage to get the price above $225 and hold. My thesis that the price will range between $230 and $270 till May/June was wrong. The intraday top was$226.36 and then the next day the price crashed below the $225 level. This is short-term bearish and confirms that another leg down is in progress. In the next few weeks, the 92-96 buy signal will be tested and probably ended. The downside target is $200ish. If the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive the price needs to bottom soon and start a steady rise to reach the $260 level by the end of May.
NEW/Mar13: Suddenly the price is back above that $225 level that I was talking about in the posts above. If it can hold above this level for a few more days the bottom is probably in but for a proper breakout, we need it above $270. I doubt it will happen before the beginning of May.
NEW/Mar16: 16-20 sell signal was generated today at the important resistance level at $230. To be honest the price action doesn't instil confidence. Very soon the 92-96 back prices will reach $230 (beginning of April) and by that time the bulls need to show some commitment.
NEW/Mar17: A strong push through the $230 resistance yesterday but we are not out of the woods yet. 16-20 sell signal is executing today right under the next, more serious, resistance level ($245ish). A 35-39 buy signal needs to happen before the price falls down below $230. Such a buy signal would make $230 support and reduce the danger of the 92-96 index generating a sell signal.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 39 days, +4.62% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $12729)
*comment/Feb01: The chart is transitioning to a bullish configuration. The resistance level at $12K has been broken out. The 92-96 index bought for a double buy with the 35-39 index which is on the path of trades. We could see a run to the $13.5K level quickly. Selling the 35-39 index in the next two weeks (below $11.5K) would be a problem.
NEW/Mar02: A test from above of the breakout point at $12K is in progress. So far so good.
NEW/Mar10: What seemed as the test of the breakout level form above is quickly transforming into a possible breakdown. $11.5K needs to hold for the SKI structure to stay bullish. Otherwise, some nasty sell signals could generate and mark a start of a new leg down.
NEW/Mar16: So, $11.5K support held and today the price is breaking out. The SKI structure is still bullish and it can turn really bullish if the 218-222 index buys. Crazy times.
NEW/Mar22: 35-39 and 92-96 are on buy signals (xxed) and the 218-222 is breaking toward a buy signal too. If the 218-222 buys everything will be lined up in a bullish order but given the state of other indices and the 10yy I just cannot trust this setup for now. Maybe it is signalling the FED pivot but we will see. For now, I am not touching it.
$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 92-96 SELL, 6 days, -2.88% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1720)
*comment/Feb01: The SKI configuration is bullish. The double 35-39/92-96 signal was generated and it is holding. The bearish trendline is already broken out and it all seems bullish. I am looking for a long entry.
NEW/Mar09: The 35-39 buy signal ended, I am not looking to go long anymore. If 92-96 sells I will probably go short.
NEW/Mar15: 92-96 sold! This signal is probably marking a short-term bottom. I will be looking for a short entry in the upcoming days.
$TNX - 10Y yield, 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to NOT BUY 3.4/-0.29% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.41%)
*comment/Mar02: The 10yy is in a bull market but it is in a late stage and everything is set up to end it soon (?). Since the correction hit 3.375% the rally started and blew through the resistance and unexpectedly for me managed to keep the pace equal to the September/October 2022 rally thus rising over 4% again. The SKI configuration now provides three potential scenarios. First (bullish), continuing strong rally to blow through the old high (4.2%) toward 5%+. This scenario doesn't require any new SKI signals. Second (bullish), the rally slows down to sell the 92-96 buy signal and then buys the 16-20 index and the 92-96 index without selling the 35-39. This causes a surge above the old high (4.2%) toward the 5%+ level. Third (bearish), the rally slows down to sell the 92-96 buy signal and drops through a 16-20 index buy signal to eventually sell the 35-39 index. This causes a drop down to test the critical 3.375%. I am not able to predict what happens but the first two scenarios are obviously not going to be well received by the general markets, so watch out.
NEW/Mar03: The price finally slowed down and 92-96 generated the sell signal. Only scenarios 2 and 3 are now left active.
NEW/Mar10: Long-awaited slowdown is finally causing yields to roll over. A day after the 92-96 sold the MACD lines crossed to the downside and the next day we got a crash. I remind you that this was my original expectation, only I didn't expect that the yield is going to manage to rise over 3.9% again. Now, the critical support is in the 3.65-3.75% area (we are already in the middle of it). If that support can be broken then scenario number 3 becomes the most probable outcome. Btw, falling yields theoretically should be positive for the general market but huge volatility is signalling that something is wrong. I will be very careful going long anything until that volatility comes down.
NEW/Mar13: 10yy is dropping like a stone. 3.65-3.75% support is broken, and scenario number 3 is in play. This chart is a perfect example of the power of SKI. The end of the true bull market on 7th Feb was the signal that something was wrong (regardless of traditional charts still being bullish) and the SKI structure at that point was telling us that if another rally happens it probably is not sustainable. A month later and we are back at 3.5% and the chart is starting to look like a massive double top. The 35-39 still didn't sell but the SKI structure is again telling us that it is a high probability it will. 3.2% is the target now. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Mar23: 35-39 sold, as expected. Tomorrow it can easily buy back but in the next few days, it can as easily sell again. Everything is lining up in a bearish manner but it is not over until 3.375% is broken to the downside. It could take a few more weeks.
XAU, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, -0.06% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $125.59)
*comment/Feb17: XAU SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trades is clear. The life run low has marked the exact bottom.
New/Feb24: We have reached the support level at $112.5. Daily indicators are deep in oversold territory and a bounce is expected.
NEW/Mar02: The bounce is in progress, let's see how the price behaves around $122-125. If it can rise above and stay there maybe my range trading thesis can survive. Otherwise, a new leg down should start to threaten to end the 92-96 index buy signal.
NEW/Mar08: The bounce did not manage to get the price high enough. The medium-term support has been broken and we can expect the next support to kick in around $107.5. My thesis about range-bound movement till May/June was wrong. This is short-term bearish. In the next few weeks, the 92-96 buy signal will be tested and probably ended. September 2022 low ($90.08) seems too far for now but in the worst-case scenario, the $100 might be in the crosshairs for the next significant low. If the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive the price needs to bottom soon and start a steady rise to reach the $125 level by the end of April.
NEW/Mar17: A strong move up yesterday brought us close to the major resistance level of $125-127. If that level is broken through (35-39 buy signal) a new wave up will start. This needs to happen before the price falls below $118-120 or the 92-96 index will sell. Whichever of these two scenarios happens first will happen in the next 3 weeks, so again charts point to mid-April as the decision time.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 53 days, +1.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $15.83)
*comment/Mar02: 92-96 generated a true buy signal simultaneously with the $15 resistance being broken through. The correction after the rise is now testing that $15 breakout level. If this is the bottom, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern will start emerging. This pattern will have a neckline at around $17, and if the pattern comes out symmetrical, this level ($17) should be hit at the beginning of April. This would fit with my old thesis of a range-bound move ($14-$17) until May, but I am not so sure of it anymore. It is worth mentioning again that during the last two years, ASA had the most accurate signals in the gold sector so this chart is worth special attention.
NEW/Mar08: Unlike HUI, XAU, GDX and GDXJ the ASA price (and USERX) didn't violate the recent low so if the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. Reminder again, in the last two years the ASA almost always differed from the rest and was almost always right.
NEW/Mar10: The low is still holding. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play.
Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 67 days, +33.27% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28237
*comment/Mar02: BTC is in a bullish configuration. $25K was hit and provided resistance for now.
NEW/Mar08: 35-39 sold, 16-20 bought. If this is not the bottom of the correction we could go down to 18K again. A new 35-39 buy signal should serve as a launch pad to break the 25K resistance. I think it all depends on 10yy.
NEW/Mar10: 18K is the new target.
NEW/Mar13: Trying to break the 25K resistance again.
NEW/Mar15: Triple signal today, 16 sell, 35 buy, 218 buy. This is marking a significant point. I'd guess a top but it certainly could be an acceleration point.
NEW/Mar17: So, it was the acceleration point. The 28K target is almost hit, the next target is $30-32K. This thing is too fast for me to trade.
NEW/Mar22: The 28K target has been hit. A week or two of consolidation/pause would be healthy.
COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 11 days, +0.33% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $36.6)
*comment/Mar02: COPX is in a bullish constellation. The price is testing the $38 level from above. If the level can hold and the price rises to buy back the 218-222 we might see a quick run up to $47. If not a drop to $34-35 is probable.
NEW/Mar/08: the 35-39 buy signal ended today with a nice profit. Today's sell signal happened exactly at the critical $38 level. If this is the bottom there is a lot of work to do to clear the overhead resistance (16-20 sell, 35-39 buy, 218-222 buy) and start a new leg up over $42. In my opinion, the more probable scenario is a quick drop to $35ish to test the 92-96 support.
NEW/Mar15: There we go $35 was hit today. I think we will continue down until the 92-96 sells.
DXY (dollar index), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 19 days, -1.97% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $102.54)
*comment/Mar02: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is bearish. The breakdown level at $105 is being tested from below. If it can resist the price advance the 35-39 and 218-222 will sell for a new leg down. If not a rally to $107 is likely where the major resistance will be tested.
NEW/Mar13: It seems $105 survived the test from below. The longer it holds the more bearish this chart becomes.
NEW/Mar23: The price started breaking the 218-222 index today. The 35-39 index back prices are close by and both indexes will be rising for the next four weeks. I expect that in this period they will both sell. Very short-term there could be some support shown to prevent the further immediate price slide.
GDX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +2.39% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.31)
*comment/Mar02: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The correction target of $28 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $32 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $25-26 and rising.
New/Mar08: Approaching the major support ($25-26) for a test in the next few weeks.
NEW/Mar13: Seems like the recent low ($26.58) was the bottom. Maybe my range-bound trading till May thesis was right but we need to hold above $27.5.
GDXJ, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +2.67% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $37.69)
*comment/Mar02: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The correction target of $33 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $39 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $32-34 and rising.
NEW/Mar13: Seems like the recent low ($32.26) was the bottom. Maybe my range-bound trading till May thesis was right but we need to hold above $33.
NEW/Mar23: Today 218-222 started breaking toward a buy signal which is necessary for the bullish case. If the price can stay above $36 till the end of the next week both 35-39 and 218-222 will buy but for the start of a new leg up, it all will need to be confirmed with the rise over $40.
GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, +1.25% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $185.74)
*comment/Mar23: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. A quadruple buy signal (3 long-term signals+35-39) has been generated inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal. Everything is aligned in a bullish manner and looks uber-bullish in all time frames except the short term. Short-term consolidation would be very very healthy but $175 needs to hold. Except for the all-time high price of $194.45, there are no other resistance levels left. The other missing piece is the gold stocks need to start catching up.
SLV, last signal 16-20 SELL, 4 days, +2.85% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to NOT BUY 20.03/-5.87% or lower; current $21.28)
*comment/Feb09: The SLV chart constellation is now neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish position but the rest is bearish, especially because the $21 level, which resisted the price advance before, has now been lost again. The momentum indicates that the 92-96 support will be tested ($19ish) so that is the target for now. It will take months to rebuild the bullish setup and the important condition is that the 92-96 index buy signal survives the test. The end of March looks like the decision time.
NEW/Feb24: The target has been hit ($19) but there are no signs of a slowdown. The 92-96 index buy signal is still holding. $18 might be where the bottom is found.
NEW/Mar01: So far the bottom is at $18.89. See the comments above.
NEW/Mar08: Still pushing toward that $18 support area. The 92-96 buy signal will probably end in a couple of weeks if not sooner.
NEW/Mar13: A strong bounce off of $18.39 has happened but the rally needs to keep up the pace until at least $21 to try to avoid the 92-96 sell signal.
NEW/Mar22: So the price did exactly what was needed and hit the target today at $21. Now it needs to hold the level for a few days to generate 218-222 and 35-39 buy signals. If that happens then a 92-96 sell/buy sequence is allowed in order to transform the setup into a true bull market (but is not necessary for real bullishness).
TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 29 days, +2.32% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 108.64/-1.4% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $110.18)
*comment/Mar02: 35-39 sold, the resistance line is holding. The 92-96 index buy signal is still active but before the 35-39 buys back I wouldn't be too optimistic. It seems we are in no man's land until either 92-96 sells or 35-39 buys.
NEW/Mar10: Finally some positive action. The support held firm and the price is heading higher toward 35-39 buy. It is too early to say if it will happen but if it does it will be very bullish.
NEW/Mar15: 35-39 bought back inside a 92-96 buy signal. This is a bullish development for the gold market.
NEW/Mar16: 35-39 sold again but it can buy back tomorrow. These signals are marking a significant point. Up or down is the question. For now, my bias is up.
NEW/Mar22: The battle to break free is being waged at the $110 level. If the 35-39 index succeeds in generating a buy signal the odds are we break through. Patience.
NEW/Mar23: 35-39 bought. Looks like a breakout but let's see if it can hold the level for a few days. This is another positive development for the gold sector.
TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 7 days, +0.28% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.4)
*comment/Mar02: The 92-96 index generated a buy signal but the 35-39 index sold. The price has been following falling 92-96 back prices since the 92-96 index has been touched on the way up in mid-January. This doesn't feel bullish regardless of the 92-96 index being on a buy signal.
NEW/Mar10: Finally some bullish action that I have been waiting for ever since the 92-96 signal was touched at the beginning of February. $108-109 is the resistance area and if it can be broken through a quick rise to $120 should be expected. If the 35-39 index buys I am going long.
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 10 days, -16.65% (together with 16-20 BUY) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.78)
*comment/Feb17: The price is ranging inside a horizontal contracting triangle since Aug 2022, therefore, producing a series of false signals and making it hard to decide if the setup is bullish or bearish. The triangle apex is positioned in March (22nd, $29ish) and by then a strong move up or down should start. The current resistance is $31ish and falling and the current support is $28ish and rising. Watch for these levels to be broken for a clue of the next move.
NEW/Mar10: I am ignoring all signals until eventually one of them gets confirmed by the price breaking free of the constraint of the contracting triangle. So far it didn't happen.
NEW/Mar14: Todays's action looks like a move toward a breakdown. We will see if it is yet another fakeout.
NEW/Mar15: Breakdown confirmed. I'm looking for a short entry.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 92-96 SELL, 8 days, -3.24% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.84)
*comment/Mar02: The price couldn't stay above the $23 level for more than a day. We are back inside the trading range of the last 10 months ($18-$22). Let's see if the 92-96 buy signal can hold up and give the price a chance for another try at the breakout.
NEW/Mar14: 92-96 sold. There is a good chance that the price will now quickly fall down to test the support at $18 and if that cannot hold there is a potential for a serious crash (30-40%).
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 54 days, -1.47%; run pattern in-progress 1D/2U/+1.42%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $10.06)
*comment/Mar02: USERX is on a true bull 92-96 signal but the 35-39 index is on a sell signal. The 35-39 sell signal should mark a low at least short-term. This is not how a bull market should start off but it is what it is. It is all about the $10.28 level and for now, it is resistance. We will not see a big move until that level is broken through properly. If the bottom forms around the recent low an inverse head and shoulder pattern will start appearing. The neckline of this pattern would be $10.28(!). Rising 92-96 back prices will cross this level at the beginning of May 2023 so in order not to end the bull market signal the price needs to slowly rise towards $10.28 during the next two months. The very-long term support is around $8.4-8.6 but if we get there the bull signal will end.
NEW/Mar10: The price is holding around the recent low and the short-term trendline therefore the setup is still very similar to ASA. If the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. There is solid technical support around $8.9-9.0. If that can't hold the final and crucial long-term support is in the $8.0-8.4 area. The 92-96 index back prices are in the 8.4-9.13 area for the next 7 days.
NEW/Mar17: The inverse head and shoulders pattern is slowly taking shape but we are in a no man's land until the 35-39 index buys and more importantly $10.28 is cleared. The danger of 92-96 index selling is real so patience is in order.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +5.69% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to NOT BUY 6428/-1.13% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 crossed to BUY; current $6502)
*comment/Mar02: The XGD chart configuration is bullish. The correction has sold the 35-39 index but that signal marked the bottom and the bounce has brought the price back above $6000. Holding above the $6000 level could lead to a breakout double buy 35-39/218-222 signal at the end of March. Losing this level will be dangerous and can quickly deteriorate into an attempt to end the 92-96 buy signal. I am 70% long.
NEW/Mar08: Sold some on Monday, 55% long.
NEW/Mar10: Aussie gold miners are starting to outperform their USA counterparts (bullish for the overall gold market). This is due to the AUD price of gold which is close to an all-time high. If the XGD price can hold above or around the $6000 level till mid-April there is a significant confluence of the SKI indices (16,35,218) in that period that indicates significant moves. Dropping below the recent low ($5694) would be bearish. I am 55% long.
NEW/Mar17: On Monday I expect the 218-222 index to start breaking toward the buy signal. So far everything looks positive, $6000 is holding and the pressure is being exercised toward breaking resistance. The major resistance level is $6600. If that can be cleared the Aussie gold stocks will break free. It is important to understand that we are not in the clear yet. That mid-April convergence still looks ominous so patience is in order.
NEW/Mar20: As expected, 218-222 index has been stabbed today, 35-39 index too. It all happened in one day, that is a very powerful move. The closing price is just under the resistance level ($6606) so we now need these two signals to be generated for the gold stocks to break free. The sooner it happens the better. Too much hesitance could lead to failure and that'd be a very bad sign. In that case, I would probs sell everything.
NEW/Mar23: 218-222 crossed to BUY, 35-39 is close to generating a buy signal too. The pressure to break through the major resistance ($6600) is continuing.
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