SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 41 days, -2.2% (also, 16-20 to SELL 3982/+0.29% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $3970)
*Comment/Mar24: SandP is in a neutral configuration. The 92-96 index is in a bull market but the 35-39 is on a sell signal. Regardless of this configuration, I went from being long to being short. This is mainly due to the vulnerability that I see with the price under $4000 and is based mostly on the bearish long-term configuration. I might switch again if the price closes above $4100. The stop loss is at $4050.
HUI, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, +2.53% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $248.13)
*comment/Feb17: HUI SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trade is clear.
NEW/Mar01: The 211.89 level did provide the floor ($210.67 intraday bottom), the expected bounce is in progress. Let's see how the price behaves around $225. If it can rise above and stay there maybe my range trading thesis can survive. Otherwise, a new leg down should start and threaten to end the 92-96 index buy signal.
NEW/Mar08: The bounce did not manage to get the price above $225 and hold. My thesis that the price will range between $230 and $270 till May/June was wrong. The intraday top was$226.36 and then the next day the price crashed below the $225 level. This is short-term bearish and confirms that another leg down is in progress. In the next few weeks, the 92-96 buy signal will be tested and probably ended. The downside target is $200ish. If the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive the price needs to bottom soon and start a steady rise to reach the $260 level by the end of May.
NEW/Mar13: Suddenly the price is back above that $225 level that I was talking about in the posts above. If it can hold above this level for a few more days the bottom is probably in but for a proper breakout, we need it above $270. I doubt it will happen before the beginning of May.
NEW/Mar16: 16-20 sell signal was generated today at the important resistance level at $230. To be honest the price action doesn't instil confidence. Very soon the 92-96 back prices will reach $230 (beginning of April) and by that time the bulls need to show some commitment.
NEW/Mar17: A strong push through the $230 resistance yesterday but we are not out of the woods yet. 16-20 sell signal is executing today right under the next, more serious, resistance level ($245ish). A 35-39 buy signal needs to happen before the price falls down below $230. Such a buy signal would then make the $230 level support and reduce the danger of the 92-96 index generating a sell signal.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 40 days, +4.94% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to NOT BUY 12187/-4.54% or lower; current $12767)
*comment/Mar24: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39 and 92-96 indexes are on buy signals (xxed, 35 on path) and the 218-222 is breaking toward a buy signal as well. If the 218-222 buys everything will be lined up in a bullish order but given the state of other indices and the 10yy I just cannot trust this setup for now. Maybe it is signalling the FED pivot but we will see. The 35-39 buy signal needs to hold.
$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 92-96 SELL, 7 days, -2.05% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $1734)
*comment/Mar24: The SKI configuration is bearish. Both 35-39 and 92-96 indexes sold. The 92-96 sell signal is probably marking a short-term bottom. I will be looking for a short entry in the upcoming days. For the setup to revert to bullish the price needs to rise over $1950ish which doesn't look probable at the moment.
$TNX - 10Y yield, 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.38%)
*comment/Mar24: The 10yy is not in a bull market anymore. Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes are on a sell signal now and the SKI structure is turning bearish. Only the 3.375% level, that I was writing about during the past few weeks, is giving support here. Today the 'price' opened under this level and spent the day raising back to close exactly at it. This makes it vulnerable to a gap down on Monday toward my target 'price' at 3.2% but it is more probable that the signal execution day marked some sort of a short-term bottom.
XAU, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +1.08% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $127.03)
*comment/Feb17: XAU SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trades is clear. The life run low has marked the exact bottom.
New/Feb24: We have reached the support level at $112.5. Daily indicators are deep in oversold territory and a bounce is expected.
NEW/Mar02: The bounce is in progress, let's see how the price behaves around $122-125. If it can rise above and stay there maybe my range trading thesis can survive. Otherwise, a new leg down should start to threaten to end the 92-96 index buy signal.
NEW/Mar08: The bounce did not manage to get the price high enough. The medium-term support has been broken and we can expect the next support to kick in around $107.5. My thesis about range-bound movement till May/June was wrong. This is short-term bearish. In the next few weeks, the 92-96 buy signal will be tested and probably ended. September 2022 low ($90.08) seems too far for now but in the worst-case scenario, the $100 might be in the crosshairs for the next significant low. If the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive the price needs to bottom soon and start a steady rise to reach the $125 level by the end of April.
NEW/Mar17: A strong move up yesterday brought us close to the major resistance level of $125-127. If that level is broken through (35-39 buy signal) a new wave up will start. This needs to happen before the price falls below $118-120 or the 92-96 index will sell. Whichever of these two scenarios happens first will happen in the next 3 weeks, so again charts point to mid-April as the decision time.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 54 days, +0.19% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $15.67)
*comment/Mar02: 92-96 generated a true buy signal simultaneously with the $15 resistance being broken through. The correction after the rise is now testing that $15 breakout level. If this is the bottom, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern will start emerging. This pattern will have a neckline at around $17, and if the pattern comes out symmetrical, this level ($17) should be hit at the beginning of April. This would fit with my old thesis of a range-bound move ($14-$17) until May, but I am not so sure of it anymore. It is worth mentioning again that during the last two years, ASA had the most accurate signals in the gold sector so this chart is worth special attention.
NEW/Mar08: Unlike HUI, XAU, GDX and GDXJ the ASA price (and USERX) didn't violate the recent low so if the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. Reminder again, in the last two years the ASA almost always differed from the rest and was almost always right.
NEW/Mar10: The low is still holding. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play.
Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 68 days, +28.6% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $27248
*comment/Mar02: BTC is in a bullish configuration. $25K was hit and provided resistance for now.
NEW/Mar08: 35-39 sold, 16-20 bought. If this is not the bottom of the correction we could go down to 18K again. A new 35-39 buy signal should serve as a launch pad to break the 25K resistance. I think it all depends on 10yy.
NEW/Mar10: 18K is the new target.
NEW/Mar13: Trying to break the 25K resistance again.
NEW/Mar15: Triple signal today, 16 sell, 35 buy, 218 buy. This is marking a significant point. I'd guess a top but it certainly could be an acceleration point.
NEW/Mar17: So, it was the acceleration point. The 28K target is almost hit, the next target is $30-32K. This thing is too fast for me to trade.
NEW/Mar22: The 28K target has been hit. A week or two of consolidation/pause would be healthy.
COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, +0.05% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 to BUY 37.98/+4.05% or higher; current $36.5)
*comment/Mar02: COPX is in a bullish constellation. The price is testing the $38 level from above. If the level can hold and the price rises to buy back the 218-222 we might see a quick run up to $47. If not a drop to $34-35 is probable.
NEW/Mar/08: the 35-39 buy signal ended today with a nice profit. Today's sell signal happened exactly at the critical $38 level. If this is the bottom there is a lot of work to do to clear the overhead resistance (16-20 sell, 35-39 buy, 218-222 buy) and start a new leg up over $42. In my opinion, the more probable scenario is a quick drop to $35ish to test the 92-96 support.
NEW/Mar15: There we go $35 was hit today. I think we will continue down until the 92-96 sells.
DXY (dollar index), on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 20 days, -1.47% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $103.11)
*comment/Mar02: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is bearish. The breakdown level at $105 is being tested from below. If it can resist the price advance the 35-39 and 218-222 will sell for a new leg down. If not a rally to $107 is likely where the major resistance will be tested.
NEW/Mar13: It seems $105 survived the test from below. The longer it holds the more bearish this chart becomes.
NEW/Mar23: The price started breaking the 218-222 index today. The 35-39 index back prices are close by and both indexes will be rising for the next four weeks. I expect that during this period they will both sell. Very short-term there could be some support shown to prevent the further immediate price slide.
GDX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, +3.17% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.55)
*comment/Mar02: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The correction target of $28 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $32 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $25-26 and rising.
New/Mar08: Approaching the major support ($25-26) for a test in the next few weeks.
NEW/Mar13: Seems like the recent low ($26.58) was the bottom. Maybe my range-bound trading till May thesis was right but we need to hold above $27.5.
GDXJ, last signal 16-20 SELL, 6 days, +3.21% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $37.89)
*comment/Mar02: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The correction target of $33 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $39 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $32-34 and rising.
NEW/Mar13: Seems like the recent low ($32.26) was the bottom. Maybe my range-bound trading till May thesis was right but we need to hold above $33.
NEW/Mar23: Today 218-222 started breaking toward a buy signal which is necessary for the bullish case. If the price can stay above $36 till the end of the next week both 35-39 and 218-222 will buy but for the start of a new leg up, it all will need to be confirmed with the rise over $40.
GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, +0.11% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $183.65)
*comment/Mar23: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. A quadruple buy signal (3 long-term signals + 35-39) has been generated inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal. Everything is aligned in a bullish manner and looks uber-bullish in all time frames except the short term. A short-term consolidation would be very very healthy but $175 needs to hold. Except for the all-time high price of $194.45, there are no other resistance levels left. The other missing piece is the gold stocks need to start catching up.
SLV, last signal 16-20 SELL, 5 days, +2.56% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 crossed to BUY; current $21.22)
*comment/Feb09: The SLV chart constellation is now neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish position but the rest is bearish, especially because the $21 level, which resisted the price advance before, has now been lost again. The momentum indicates that the 92-96 support will be tested ($19ish) so that is the target for now. It will take months to rebuild the bullish setup and the important condition is that the 92-96 index buy signal survives the test. The end of March looks like the decision time.
NEW/Feb24: The target has been hit ($19) but there are no signs of a slowdown. The 92-96 index buy signal is still holding. $18 might be where the bottom is found.
NEW/Mar01: So far the bottom is at $18.89. See the comments above.
NEW/Mar08: Still pushing toward that $18 support area. The 92-96 buy signal will probably end in a couple of weeks if not sooner.
NEW/Mar13: A strong bounce off of $18.39 has happened but the rally needs to keep up the pace until at least $21 to try to avoid the 92-96 sell signal.
NEW/Mar22: So the price did exactly what was needed and hit the target today at $21. Now it needs to hold the level for a few days to generate 218-222 and 35-39 buy signals. If that happens then a 92-96 sell/buy sequence is allowed in order to transform the setup into a true bull market (but is not necessary for real bullishness).
NEW/Mar24: 218-222 buy generated. Minimum three more days for the 35-39 buy.
TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 30 days, +2.06% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $109.9)
*comment/Mar02: 35-39 sold, the resistance line is holding. The 92-96 index buy signal is still active but before the 35-39 buys back I wouldn't be too optimistic. It seems we are in no man's land until either 92-96 sells or 35-39 buys.
NEW/Mar10: Finally some positive action. The support held firm and the price is heading higher toward 35-39 buy. It is too early to say if it will happen but if it does it will be very bullish.
NEW/Mar15: 35-39 bought back inside a 92-96 buy signal. This is a bullish development for the gold market.
NEW/Mar16: 35-39 sold again but it can buy back tomorrow. These signals are marking a significant point. Up or down is the question. For now, my bias is up.
NEW/Mar22: The battle to break free is being waged at the $110 level. If the 35-39 index succeeds in generating a buy signal the odds are we break through. Patience.
NEW/Mar23: 35-39 bought. Looks like a breakout but let's see if it can hold the level for a few days. This is another positive development for the gold sector.
TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 8 days, +0.71% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.85)
*comment/Mar02: The 92-96 index generated a buy signal but the 35-39 index sold. The price has been following falling 92-96 back prices since the 92-96 index has been touched on the way up in mid-January. This doesn't feel bullish regardless of the 92-96 index being on a buy signal.
NEW/Mar10: Finally some bullish action that I have been waiting for ever since the 92-96 signal was touched at the beginning of February. $108-109 is the resistance area and if it can be broken through a quick rise to $120 should be expected. If the 35-39 index buys I am going long.
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 11 days, -16.65% (together with 16-20 BUY) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.78)
*comment/Feb17: The price is ranging inside a horizontal contracting triangle since Aug 2022, therefore, producing a series of false signals and making it hard to decide if the setup is bullish or bearish. The triangle apex is positioned in March (22nd, $29ish) and by then a strong move up or down should start. The current resistance is $31ish and falling and the current support is $28ish and rising. Watch for these levels to be broken for a clue of the next move.
NEW/Mar10: I am ignoring all signals until eventually one of them gets confirmed by the price breaking free of the constraint of the contracting triangle. So far it didn't happen.
NEW/Mar14: Todays's action looks like a move toward a breakdown. We will see if it is yet another fakeout.
NEW/Mar15: Breakdown confirmed. I'm looking for a short entry.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 92-96 SELL, 9 days, -4.11% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.67)
*comment/Mar02: The price couldn't stay above the $23 level for more than a day. We are back inside the trading range of the last 10 months ($18-$22). Let's see if the 92-96 buy signal can hold up and give the price a chance for another try at the breakout.
NEW/Mar14: 92-96 sold. There is a good chance that the price will now quickly fall down to test the support at $18 and if that cannot hold there is a potential for a serious crash (30-40%).
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 55 days, -1.37%; run pattern in-progress 1D/3U/+0.98%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $10.07)
*comment/Mar02: USERX is on a true bull 92-96 signal but the 35-39 index is on a sell signal. The 35-39 sell signal should mark a low at least short-term. This is not how a bull market should start off but it is what it is. It is all about the $10.28 level and for now, it is resistance. We will not see a big move until that level is broken through properly. If the bottom forms around the recent low an inverse head and shoulder pattern will start appearing. The neckline of this pattern would be $10.28(!). Rising 92-96 back prices will cross this level at the beginning of May 2023 so in order not to end the bull market signal the price needs to slowly rise towards $10.28 during the next two months. The very-long term support is around $8.4-8.6 but if we get there the bull signal will end.
NEW/Mar10: The price is holding around the recent low and the short-term trendline therefore the setup is still very similar to ASA. If the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. There is solid technical support around $8.9-9.0. If that can't hold the final and crucial long-term support is in the $8.0-8.4 area. The 92-96 index back prices are in the 8.4-9.13 area for the next 7 days.
NEW/Mar17: The inverse head and shoulders pattern is slowly taking shape but we are in a no man's land until the 35-39 index buys and more importantly $10.28 is cleared. The danger of 92-96 index selling is real so patience is in order.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, 35-39 crossed to BUY (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to SELL 6428/-3.05% or lower; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 BUY executed today; current $6631)
*comment/Mar02: The XGD chart configuration is bullish. The correction has sold the 35-39 index but that signal marked the bottom and the bounce has brought the price back above $6000. Holding above the $6000 level could lead to a breakout double buy 35-39/218-222 signal at the end of March. Losing this level will be dangerous and can quickly deteriorate into an attempt to end the 92-96 buy signal. I am 70% long.
NEW/Mar08: Sold some on Monday, 55% long.
NEW/Mar10: Aussie gold miners are starting to outperform their USA counterparts (bullish for the overall gold market). This is due to the AUD price of gold which is close to an all-time high. If the XGD price can hold above or around the $6000 level till mid-April there is a significant confluence of the SKI indices (16,35,218) in that period that indicates significant moves. Dropping below the recent low ($5694) would be bearish. I am 55% long.
NEW/Mar17: On Monday I expect the 218-222 index to start breaking toward the buy signal. So far everything looks positive, $6000 is holding and the pressure is being exercised toward breaking resistance. The major resistance level is $6600. If that can be cleared the Aussie gold stocks will break free. It is important to understand that we are not in the clear yet. That mid-April convergence still looks ominous so patience is in order.
NEW/Mar20: As expected, 218-222 index has been stabbed today, 35-39 index too. It all happened in one day, that is a very powerful move. The closing price is just under the resistance level ($6606) so we now need these two signals to be generated for the gold stocks to break free. The sooner it happens the better. Too much hesitance could lead to failure and that'd be a very bad sign. In that case, I would probs sell everything.
NEW/Mar23: 218-222 crossed to BUY, 35-39 is close to generating a buy signal too. The pressure to break through the major resistance ($6600) is continuing.
NEW/Mar24: 35-39 crossed to BUY and the price closed above the $6600 resistance level first time since the January top. The pressure to break through the major resistance is continuing. We just need to sustain this level for a day or two.
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