SandP 500, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 46 days, +1.2% (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 BUY executed today; current $4109)
*Comment/Mar24: SandP is in a neutral configuration. The 92-96 index is in a bull market but the 35-39 is on a sell signal. Regardless of this configuration, I went from being long to being short. This is mainly due to the vulnerability that I see with the price under $4000 and is based mostly on the bearish long-term configuration. I might switch again if the price closes above $4100. The stop loss is at $4050.
NEW/Mar30: Today's close is exactly at my stop loss price. I am still short but will close the position soon if the rally continues.
NEW/Mar31: Stopped out. This is what happens when one anticipates the signals and goes against the SKI configuration. The 92-96 index didn't sell. The action seems a lot like the action in the gold sector a month ago. Let's see if this rally can have legs. I still cannot bring myself to go long.
HUI, 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 BUY executed today; current $256.18)
*comment/Mar30: HUI SKI configuration is back to bullish. Today both the 35-39 and 218-222 generated a buy signal inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal which is very bullish (medium term). The closing price is approaching the $270 level which needs to be broken through to confirm further advance. I think a correction/consolidation should take place around this level ($270) to cool down the overbought conditions. On the downside, the $230 is the support that needs to hold for this bullish configuration to persist.
$NDX - Nasdaq, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 45 days, +8.34% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $13181)
*comment/Mar24: The chart is in a bullish configuration. 35-39 and 92-96 indexes are on buy signals (xxed, 35 on path) and the 218-222 is breaking toward a buy signal as well. If the 218-222 buys everything will be lined up in a bullish order but given the state of other indices and the 10yy I just cannot trust this setup for now. Maybe it is signalling the FED pivot but we will see. The 35-39 buy signal needs to hold.
NEW/Mar30: So far the behaviour continues to be bullish. The 218-222 buy signal caused further advance. It seems that 13.5K is the target.
$RUT - Russell 2000, last signal 92-96 SELL, 12 days, +1.76% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 1775/-1.47% or lower; current $1802)
*comment/Mar24: The SKI configuration is bearish. Both 35-39 and 92-96 indexes sold. The 92-96 sell signal is probably marking a short-term bottom. I will be looking for a short entry in the upcoming days. For the setup to revert to bullish the price needs to rise over $1950ish which doesn't look probable at the moment.
$TNX - 10Y yield, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, +3.37% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 to BUY 3.68/+5.44% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.49%)
*comment/Mar24: The 10yy is no longer in a bull market. Both the 35-39 and 92-96 indexes are on a sell signal now and the SKI structure is turning bearish. Only the 3.375% level, that I was writing about during the past few weeks, is giving support here. Today the 'price' opened under this level and spent the day climbing back to close exactly at it. This makes it vulnerable to a gap down on Monday toward my target 'price' at 3.2% but it is more probable that the signal execution day marked some sort of a short-term bottom.
NEW/Mar29: As expected the 35-39 sell signal marked a low. Let's see how far the rally can go. The odds are, not far enough to buy back the 92-96 index.
XAU, 35-39 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $131.44)
*comment/Feb17: XAU SKI configuration switched to neutral. The 92-96 is in a bullish mode and the 35-39 is in a bearish mode. The path of trades is clear. The life run low has marked the exact bottom.
New/Feb24: We have reached the support level at $112.5. Daily indicators are deep in oversold territory and a bounce is expected.
NEW/Mar02: The bounce is in progress, let's see how the price behaves around $122-125. If it can rise above and stay there maybe my range trading thesis can survive. Otherwise, a new leg down should start to threaten to end the 92-96 index buy signal.
NEW/Mar08: The bounce did not manage to get the price high enough. The medium-term support has been broken and we can expect the next support to kick in around $107.5. My thesis about range-bound movement till May/June was wrong. This is short-term bearish. In the next few weeks, the 92-96 buy signal will be tested and probably ended. September 2022 low ($90.08) seems too far for now but in the worst-case scenario, the $100 might be in the crosshairs for the next significant low. If the 92-96 buy signal is going to survive the price needs to bottom soon and start a steady rise to reach the $125 level by the end of April.
NEW/Mar17: A strong move up yesterday brought us close to the major resistance level of $125-127. If that level is broken through (35-39 buy signal) a new wave up will start. This needs to happen before the price falls below $118-120 or the 92-96 index will sell. Whichever of these two scenarios happens first will happen in the next 3 weeks, so again charts point to mid-April as the decision time.
NEW/Mar29: The 218-222 index bought for long-term bullishness. The 35-39 is about to buy soon as well. There is some space for a modest correction. The support of around $120 needs to hold for the bullishness to persist.
ASA, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 59 days, +2.49% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $16.03)
*comment/Mar02: 92-96 generated a true buy signal simultaneously with the $15 resistance being broken through. The correction after the rise is now testing that $15 breakout level. If this is the bottom, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern will start emerging. This pattern will have a neckline at around $17, and if the pattern comes out symmetrical, this level ($17) should be hit at the beginning of April. This would fit with my old thesis of a range-bound move ($14-$17) until May, but I am not so sure of it anymore. It is worth mentioning again that during the last two years, ASA had the most accurate signals in the gold sector so this chart is worth special attention.
NEW/Mar08: Unlike HUI, XAU, GDX and GDXJ the ASA price (and USERX) didn't violate the recent low so if the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. Reminder again, in the last two years the ASA almost always differed from the rest and was almost always right.
NEW/Mar10: The low is still holding. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play.
NEW/Mar30:The 35-39 index is going to generate a buy signal tomorrow (if it doesn't fall 3.17%) but the price will still need to rise to around $17 to complete the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Given the state of the ASA chart and based on the fact that the ASA has been the benchmark for the gold sector behaviour for the last two years I would say that the real move in the gold sector will not start before May. The short-term could still include a rise to $17 first.
NEW/Mar31: 35-39 buy has been generated. $16.5-$17.0 is the target.
Bitcoin, on 92-96, onpath, xxed, 75 days, +34.94% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $28592
*comment/Mar02: BTC is in a bullish configuration. $25K was hit and provided resistance for now.
NEW/Mar08: 35-39 sold, 16-20 bought. If this is not the bottom of the correction we could go down to 18K again. A new 35-39 buy signal should serve as a launch pad to break the 25K resistance. I think it all depends on 10yy.
NEW/Mar10: 18K is the new target.
NEW/Mar13: Trying to break the 25K resistance again.
NEW/Mar15: Triple signal today, 16 sell, 35 buy, 218 buy. This is marking a significant point. I'd guess a top but it certainly could be an acceleration point.
NEW/Mar17: So, it was the acceleration point. The 28K target is almost hit, the next target is $30-32K. This thing is too fast for me to trade.
NEW/Mar22: The 28K target has been hit. A week or two of consolidation/pause would be healthy.
COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 17 days, +6.11% (also, 16-20 to SELL 39.36/+1.68% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $38.71)
*comment/Mar02: COPX is in a bullish constellation. The price is testing the $38 level from above. If the level can hold and the price rises to buy back the 218-222 we might see a quick run up to $47. If not a drop to $34-35 is probable.
NEW/Mar/08: the 35-39 buy signal ended today with a nice profit. Today's sell signal happened exactly at the critical $38 level. If this is the bottom there is a lot of work to do to clear the overhead resistance (16-20 sell, 35-39 buy, 218-222 buy) and start a new leg up over $42. In my opinion, the more probable scenario is a quick drop to $35ish to test the 92-96 support.
NEW/Mar15: There we go $35 was hit today. I think we will continue down until the 92-96 sells.
NEW/Mar29: I was wrong about a potential 92-96 sell signal. For now, the 92-96 buy signal survived. The price is back at the critical $38. We will see if this is a test of former support from below or if the price can rise even further to buy back the 35-39 for new bullishness.
DXY (dollar index), 35-39 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 to NOT SELL 105.09/+2.44% or higher; current $102.59)
*comment/Mar02: The longest (by far) DXY bull in 50 years is over. The SKI structure is bearish. The breakdown level at $105 is being tested from below. If it can resist the price advance the 35-39 and 218-222 will sell for a new leg down. If not a rally to $107 is likely where the major resistance will be tested.
NEW/Mar13: It seems $105 survived the test from below. The longer it holds the more bearish this chart becomes.
NEW/Mar23: The price started breaking the 218-222 index today. The 35-39 index back prices are close by and both indexes will be rising for the next four weeks. I expect that during this period they will both sell. Very short-term there could be some support shown to prevent the further immediate price slide.
NEW/Mar30: Further deterioration of the dollar chart continues. In the next two days, both 35-39 and 218-222 are probable to sell to complete the long-term bearish configuration. That is more good news for the gold sector but the sell signals might mark the short-term low for the dollar (top for the gold).
NEW/Mar31: 35-39 sold, as expected. 218-222 is selling tomorrow. The dollar chart is now completely bearish. The next target is $98-99. Short-term we could see some consolidation or up but I wouldn't be surprised if we just keep going straight down to the target.
GDX, 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $32.35)
*comment/Mar02: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The correction target of $28 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $32 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $25-26 and rising.
New/Mar08: Approaching the major support ($25-26) for a test in the next few weeks.
NEW/Mar13: Seems like the recent low ($26.58) was the bottom. Maybe my range-bound trading till May thesis was right but we need to hold above $27.5.
NEW/Mar29: 218-222 bought today, the 35-39 is buying tomorrow. Bullish. There is space for a correction but $28 must hold.
NEW/Mar30: The 35-39 index bought today to complete the bullish picture. A short-term top could be close at hand. There is space for a correction but $28 must hold.
GDXJ, 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to SELL; current $39.5)
*comment/Mar02: The chart is in a neutral position, 92-96 bullish, 35-39 bearish. The correction target of $33 has been hit. The path of trades has been cleared. In order for the 92-96 buy signal to hold the price needs to be above $39 by the beginning of May. The major support is around $32-34 and rising.
NEW/Mar13: Seems like the recent low ($32.26) was the bottom. Maybe my range-bound trading till May thesis was right but we need to hold above $33.
NEW/Mar23: Today 218-222 started breaking toward a buy signal which is necessary for the bullish case. If the price can stay above $36 till the end of the next week both 35-39 and 218-222 will buy but for the start of a new leg up, it all will need to be confirmed with the rise over $40.
NEW/Mar29: 218-222 buy executed today, the 35-39 is buying tomorrow. Bullish but the price needs to rise over $40 for confirmation. There is space for a correction, $35 must hold.
NEW/Mar30: The 35-39 index bought today to complete the bullish picture. The price needs to rise over $40 for confirmation. A short-term top could be close at hand. There is space for a correction, $35 must hold.
GLD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 8 days, -0.12% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $183.22)
*comment/Mar23: The GLD chart structure is now bullish. A quadruple buy signal (3 long-term signals + 35-39) has been generated inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal. Everything is aligned in a bullish manner and looks uber-bullish in all time frames except the short term. A short-term consolidation would be very very healthy but $175 needs to hold. Except for the all-time high price of $194.45, there are no other resistance levels left. The other missing piece is the gold stocks need to start catching up.
NEW/Mar30: Since my last comment the consolidation is underway and the gold stocks have started catching up. All looks good. $175 needs to hold.
SLV, 35-39 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $22.12)
*comment/Mar30: The SLV chart constellation is back to bullish. The 35-39 index generated a buy signal inside an already existing 92-96 buy signal. That is bullish. If this signal marks a start of a consolidation/correction period there is an opportunity in the next two months to sell/buy the 92-96 index and transform the chart into a true bull market setup. $22.0-22.5 is a firm resistance which, if broken, will set the target to $24ish. The support that shouldn't be violated is around $20ish and will be rising toward the end of April.
TIP, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, xxed, 35 days, +2.39% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL, current $110.25)
*comment/Mar02: 35-39 sold, the resistance line is holding. The 92-96 index buy signal is still active but before the 35-39 buys back I wouldn't be too optimistic. It seems we are in no man's land until either 92-96 sells or 35-39 buys.
NEW/Mar10: Finally some positive action. The support held firm and the price is heading higher toward 35-39 buy. It is too early to say if it will happen but if it does it will be very bullish.
NEW/Mar15: 35-39 bought back inside a 92-96 buy signal. This is a bullish development for the gold market.
NEW/Mar16: 35-39 sold again but it can buy back tomorrow. These signals are marking a significant point. Up or down is the question. For now, my bias is up.
NEW/Mar22: The battle to break free is being waged at the $110 level. If the 35-39 index succeeds in generating a buy signal the odds are we break through. Patience.
NEW/Mar23: 35-39 bought. Looks like a breakout but let's see if it can hold the level for a few days. This is another positive development for the gold sector.
TLT, last signal 16-20 SELL, 13 days, +0.25% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $106.37)
*comment/Mar02: The 92-96 index generated a buy signal but the 35-39 index sold. The price has been following falling 92-96 back prices since the 92-96 index has been touched on the way up in mid-January. This doesn't feel bullish regardless of the 92-96 index being on a buy signal.
NEW/Mar10: Finally some bullish action that I have been waiting for ever since the 92-96 signal was touched at the beginning of February. $108-109 is the resistance area and if it can be broken through a quick rise to $120 should be expected. If the 35-39 index buys I am going long.
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 16 days, -3.15% (together with 16-20 BUY) (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $26.47)
*comment/Feb17: The price is ranging inside a horizontal contracting triangle since Aug 2022, therefore, producing a series of false signals and making it hard to decide if the setup is bullish or bearish. The triangle apex is positioned in March (22nd, $29ish) and by then a strong move up or down should start. The current resistance is $31ish and falling and the current support is $28ish and rising. Watch for these levels to be broken for a clue of the next move.
NEW/Mar10: I am ignoring all signals until eventually one of them gets confirmed by the price breaking free of the constraint of the contracting triangle. So far it didn't happen.
NEW/Mar14: Todays's action looks like a move toward a breakdown. We will see if it is yet another fakeout.
NEW/Mar15: Breakdown confirmed. I'm looking for a short entry.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 92-96 SELL, 14 days, +2.36% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 to BUY 21.38/+7.28% or higher; current $19.93)
*comment/Mar02: The price couldn't stay above the $23 level for more than a day. We are back inside the trading range of the last 10 months ($18-$22). Let's see if the 92-96 buy signal can hold up and give the price a chance for another try at the breakout.
NEW/Mar14: 92-96 sold. There is a good chance that the price will now quickly fall down to test the support at $18 and if that cannot hold there is a potential for a serious crash (30-40%).
USERX, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 60 days, +2.64%; run pattern in-progress 7U/1D/-0.57%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 BUY executed today; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 breaking to BUY; current $10.48)
*comment/Mar02: USERX is on a true bull 92-96 signal but the 35-39 index is on a sell signal. The 35-39 sell signal should mark a low at least short-term. This is not how a bull market should start off but it is what it is. It is all about the $10.28 level and for now, it is resistance. We will not see a big move until that level is broken through properly. If the bottom forms around the recent low an inverse head and shoulder pattern will start appearing. The neckline of this pattern would be $10.28(!). Rising 92-96 back prices will cross this level at the beginning of May 2023 so in order not to end the bull market signal the price needs to slowly rise towards $10.28 during the next two months. The very-long term support is around $8.4-8.6 but if we get there the bull signal will end.
NEW/Mar10: The price is holding around the recent low and the short-term trendline therefore the setup is still very similar to ASA. If the low is close the inverse head and shoulder pattern is still in play. Any further weakness will negate this scenario and put us in the same situation as the other gold indices. There is solid technical support around $8.9-9.0. If that can't hold the final and crucial long-term support is in the $8.0-8.4 area. The 92-96 index back prices are in the 8.4-9.13 area for the next 7 days.
NEW/Mar17: The inverse head and shoulders pattern is slowly taking shape but we are in a no man's land until the 35-39 index buys and more importantly $10.28 is cleared. The danger of 92-96 index selling is real so patience is in order.
NEW/Mar29: The inverse head and shoulders pattern has been completed. The price closed above the critical $10.28 for two days in a row. The 35-39 index is about to generate a buy signal. Everything looks bullish. There is a space for short-term consolidation but the 92-96 buy signal needs to hold (9.2ish). By the first week of May either the price takes off or the bull market will end.
NEW/Mar30: 35-39 bought. Third day close above $10.28. If $10.71 is breached then $11.2 is the target. That would be in sync with ASA and the $17 target.
XGD.AX, Australian gold index, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days, +2.84% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $6902)
*comment/Mar31: The XGD chart configuration is bullish. The resistance ($6600) has been broken through. It is safe to say that $7700 is the next target. $6600 now should behave as support. 70% long.
