The State Of Indices, 6/10/2022

 SandP 500, last signal 35-39 SELL, 13 days, -7.43% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3585)

*comment/Oct01 : S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3791 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price has closed below this level on a monthly basis so the crash scenario is active now. I am looking for $3400-3495 as the first target (based on the 2020 low). Very long-term, based on the 2009 low the first target would be $3226 then $2735 then $2243 and ultimately sub $2000.
Short-term the sentiment is very negative, the put/call ratio is hitting extreme levels and if there is no new bad news hitting the market we might see a rally here, probably not more than $3800. I will add to my short position if the rally occurs.
NEW/Oct06: I have booked the profit on the rest of my shorts at $3720. No position now but looking to re-short (probably $3900ish). If the rally can be sustained to buy 92-96 for a true bull market I will reconsider but most likely I stick to my shorts.

HUI, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, +0.57% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $205.01)
*comment/Oct01: HUI is in a bearish configuration. As suggested before, critical support is being tested. $180 needs to hold because it is the long-term support originating from the 2015 low. So far the low is 172.86 and that dive under $180 produced a strong reaction to the upside. The 16-20 sell signal was positive for the potential low. All weekly indicators are deep in oversold territory and show positive divergencies. If $180 doesn't hold $140-160 is the target.
NEW/Oct06: The next signal will be either a 35-39 buy or a 16-20 buy. Both signals will be bullish but I prefer the 35-39 first. The 35-39 signal would be more bullish and set the stage for a rise to $235ish to buy the 92-96 index.

Nasdaq, last signal 35-39 SELL, 15 days, -2.97% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $11573)
*comment/Oct01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked the start of the new leg down. Today is the first time the price dived below $11K since Sept 2020. I still expect $10579 to be hit by mid-October. After that, the target is $9750. The bull's territory is now far away at $12.5K and it seems it will not be visited anytime soon. Rallies should be sold.

Russell 2000, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -1.39% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to BUY; 218-222 on SELL; current $1762)
*comment/Oct01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked the start of a new leg down. The 92-96 has bearishly rejected the buy signal. The first downside target is $1534. Rallies should be sold.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 226 days, +140.96% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.76%)
*comment/Sep27: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The yield is above 3.5% and spiking up erratically. This is a sign of serious problems in the debt market. Everyone should be very careful with being exposed to these conditions.
NEW/Sep29: 4% level was hit and produced a strong reaction to the downside. The double sell setup that existed 2 weeks ago is now gone and the order of SKI indices is supportive for more upside but we will probably see some correction first. The support is around 3.3% and rising.

XAU, last signal 16-20 SELL, 3 days, +1.21% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $107.28)
*comment/Sep27: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The low so far is $90.08. The long-term uptrend is being tested at $90. A flush to $80-85 is probable in my opinion. For the record, XAU performed the life run price pattern 2up5down -2.23% per day.
NEW/Oct01: XAU bounced off the critical support line in a perfect manner while at the same time it performed a life run low price pattern. This 16-20 sell signal looks promising for a potential bottom but the elusive 35-39 is needed for confirmation.
NEW/Oct06: If the bottom is in, as suggested by the life run low pattern and historically oversold conditions, a 35-39 buy signal should generate before the 16-20 buy to finally break free of the downtrend. I do think that this is the probable play here.

ASA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, +0.84% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $13.22)
*comment/Sep27: ASA is in a bearish configuration. We are on the way to $12 (done) and probably beyond. The weekly rPrice(200) is -28.7%, at the corona low it was -23.1%. On the daily chart, the current rPrice(200) is -35.4% and at the corona low, it was -30%. In Nov 2015 it was -55% so I guess we cannot be sure that this is the bottom but some kind of relief rally should ensue soon. Sentiment indicators are showing divergencies across the board.
NEW/Sep29: ASA has been a leading indicator for the gold sector since 2020 and for now it is significantly underperforming other gold indices. Something to keep an eye on.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 19 days, -0.4% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 19543/-2.51% or lower; 35-39 to BUY 20050/+0.01% or higher; 92-96 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 19296/-3.75% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $20047.
*comment/Oct06: BTC is in a bearish configuration but it all might change starting now. Today's 92-96 buy signal makes a double buy with the previously generated 16-20 buy. Tomorrow the 35-39 buy might join in for a powerful sequence of events that is going to mark the end of this 4 month long sideways move. Simultaneously with these signals, the downtrend line is being broken to the upside and if the move doesn't reverse immediately I expect the explosion to $28-30K in short order. I will probably go long if 20K is sustained for another 24h.

COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 8 days, +12.23% (also, 16-20 to SELL 31.41/+4.04% or higher; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $30.19)
*comment/24Sep: COPX is in a bearish configuration. I said before that "The next signal will decide the character of the next leg, a 16-20 sell ($32ish) means a potential breakout and a 35-39 sell means more pain (target $22ish)". Today we got the answer, 35-39 sell it is. This setup is probably worth shorting. $26.01 is the low for now but the final target is around $21. A rise over $32 would negate this setup.

DXY (dollar index), on 92-96 true BUY, 325 days, +20.19% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $111.2)
*comment/23Sep: The DXY is in a bullish configuration. The price is departing from the critical $110 level. The SKI structure is gradually strengthening again, suggesting more advances ahead. The 10yy and TLT are confirming. The target is $121.07.
NEW/Sep30: Nothing has been broken yet but the strong rejection by the $114 level suggests we might have a new shot at some kind of a top. From the 1h chart, I went long CHFUSD (1.0215) for a short-term trade. Stop loss 1.012.
NEW/Oct06: My CHFUSD long trade didn't pan out, I was stopped before the surge happened. I am looking for another entry or to go long DXY (prob 16-20 buy).

GDX, last signal 16-20 SELL, 2 days, -1.48% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $25.37)
*comment/Oct06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. After the flush of the crucial $25 level ($21.52 low) combined with the 881-888 index buy signal and favourable rPrice reading the price surged back above it to potentially buy that 35-39 index that has been avoided for so long. If the low is in I fully expect the 35-39 index to buy before the 16-20 buy and finally puts to rest the issue of the long-term bottom. After the 35-39 buy I expect the correction. If we lose $25 again before the 35-39 buy signal and the 16-20 buy doesn't stop the fall real devastation is coming ($16-17). That is not expected.

GDXJ, 16-20 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $31.37)
*comment/Oct06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. After the flush of the $28 level ($25.8 low) combined with the 881-888 index buy signal and favourable rPrice reading the price surged back above it to potentially buy that 35-39 index that has been avoided for so long. If the low is in I fully expect the 35-39 index to buy in the next two weeks and finally puts to rest the issue of the long-term bottom. After the 35-39 buy I expect the correction. If we lose $28 again before the 35-39 buy signal and the 16-20 buy doesn't stop the fall real devastation is coming ($20-22). That is not expected.

GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 15 days, +3.12% (also, 16-20 to SELL 159.82/+0.01% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $159.81)
*comment/Sep27: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked a breakdown. The low didn't hold. The target is now at $148ish (gold spot $1590ish) rather than my previously stated $150-152.
NEW/Sep29: So far the low was at $151.03. Maybe my initial call for the bottom in the $150-152 area was correct? Let's see what happens. We need a new 16-20 sell (above $156-158) to break the downtrend.
NEW/Oct01: Friday's close was pretty bad because it pushed the price below the resistance at the last hour. This is quite normal for Fridays so it is not a big deal if the next week the price can rally above $156.04 and approach and eventually sell the 16-20 index. If $156 proves to be too hard to crack then we will see another test of the recent low and maybe hit my target at $148 ($1590 spot).
NEW/Oct06: The 16-20 sell is approaching. After the 16-20 sell signal, I expect the rise to continue and buy the 35-39 before the correction starts. That would be an action that is in line with the long-term bottom being put in place.

SLV, 35-39 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.99)
*comment/Oct06: The SKI structure is still bearish but this 35-39 buy on the path not xxed is a significant development. The SKI structure of the buy is sound. It was preceded with a precise 660-664 buy signal at the exact low combined with historically bullish COT readings and the flush of significant levels going back to 2013. I think the bottom is in. I increased my physical silver stock by 30% last week and am very long silver stocks. The 35-39 buy needs to hold.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 22 days, -4.84% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $105.83)
*comment/23Sep: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The potentially bullish 35-39 buy didn't hold so everything is bearish now. As suspected, the price fell below $110 and then accelerated. The weekly rPrice(200) is at
-12.53%. The minimum recorded since the inception of TLT was -10.33% at the 2008 low. On the daily chart the minimum was in Nov 2008 -13.45%, today it is -11.93 so by this measure there is some more space to go but we should be close to the bottom. I think the target should be sub $107 for the final bottom ($107.53 Nov 2018 low, 107.37 Mar 2020 low). Considering the strong momentum I expect this to happen sooner than later, probably by October 2022.
NEW/27Sep: A strong flush under $107 today but no signs of the bottom so far. The corona low has been exceeded but it seems this can go further.
NEW/Oct01: Finally some traction was shown two days ago but a new low was recorded yesterday ($104.63). We need support to kick in and rise above $109 for signs of bottom forming.

TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 29 days, -9.06% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.55)
*comment/27Sep: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That was bearish and the price immediately fell down to test and exceed the recent low (the new low is $105.27). The next target is $101.17 (Dec 2013 low). On the other hand, the weekly rPrice(200) reading is -26%. That is by far the lowest on record since the TLT was introduced. Usually, that would mean that some type of correction is due but considering the strong momentum we should probably focus on that $101 target for now.
NEW/Sep29: Finally a strong reaction after the $101 target was hit. We need to follow through and rise to sell 16-20 for a chance of the bottom.

UCO (crude oil ETF), on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 22 days, -2.83% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $31.63)
*comment/Sep27: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. Approaching the support zone at $25ish but I expect it to dive under and touch/break $23-24 before a correction.
NEW/Sep29: So far the low was $25.12. We will see if we get that flush under $25 before the correction starts.
NEW/Oct06: I guess we didn't get that flush that I mentioned above. We are approaching the 16-20 sell signal which could be a shorting opportunity but this time only short-term.

URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 8 days, +12.09% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 to NOT BUY 21.04/-1.31% or lower; 218-222 on SELL; current $21.32)
*comment/24Sep: The chart is in a bearish configuration. A bullish 92-96 buy signal fell short by one day and then the whole bullish setup blew up by selling the 35-39 index. The execution of the 16-20/35-39 buy/sell combo could mark the low but given the severity of the failed setup and the overall equity market condition, I am expecting further losses. The first target is $17.78 and then lower to touch the bottom of the downtrend channel at $14-15ish.
NEW/Sep29: So far the 35-39/16-20 combo signal marked the low. If the rise continues and the $22 level is regained a 92-96 true buy signal would be generated but it would have a weak structure. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Oct01: The more time passes by the more this looks like a setup to go short.

USERX, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, +4.08%; run pattern in-progress 6U/1D/-0.97%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 SELL executed today; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $9.19)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/Sep29: The 35-39 index sold. The fall continues, the current target area is 881-885 index. The back prices of this index sit between $6.66 and $7.38 for the next 15 days. Where to look for a possible bottom? The weekly rPrice(200) at the 2020 low was -23.55%, and the current is -21.54% so we are in the ballpark. The $8.0 area is the support emanating from the 2015 low and if broken hard but then recovered quickly we might be close to the low. Let's see if and how we hit the 881-885 index and behaviour around that level. If the behaviour implies strong support and it is combined with a favourable rPrice reading the low might be in. I have posted the USERX weekly chart in my "USERX and XGD.AX chart" thread for everyone to see how important this juncture is. 61.8% Fibo, 2020 uptrend, 2022 downtrend and 2013 horizontal support all are converging into this $8 level so it better hold.
NEW/Oct06: 16-20 sell signal has been generated. I'd like to see a 35-39 buy signal before the 16-20 buy if the bottom is in. The setup is there to have a 660-664 sell signal at the same time. We need the price to be over the $10.28 level again to be sure that the big picture has changed.

Australian XGD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 23 days, +6.34% (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 4725.6/-4.39% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4942)
*comment/Oct06: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4400-4600 target was hit the rally started and a 16-20 sell signal is about to be generated. I took some profit and am back to 20% long. The next signal (after 16-20 sell) will be either 16-20 buy or 35-39 buy both of them bullish. If the 16-20 comes first I start accumulating again. If the 35-39 comes first then I will be looking for a correction to buy in. On my 20% long position, I do not have stops for now.