The State Of The Indices, 2/10/2022

 SandP 500, last signal 35-39 SELL, 11 days, -7.43% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3585)

*comment/Oct01 : S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3791 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price has closed below this level on a monthly basis so the crash scenario is active now. I am looking for $3400-3495 as the first target (based on the 2020 low). Very long-term, based on the 2009 low the first target would be $3226 then $2735 then $2243 and ultimately sub $2000.
Short-term the sentiment is very negative, the put/call ratio is hitting extreme levels and if there is no new bad news hitting the market we might see a rally here, probably not more than $3800. I will add to my short position if the rally occurs. I am still short the position I added at $4100.

HUI, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $194.33)
*comment/Oct01: HUI is in a bearish configuration. As suggested before, critical support is being tested. $180 needs to hold because it is the long-term support originating from the 2015 low. So far the low is 172.86 and that dive under $180 produced a strong reaction to the upside. The 16-20 sell signal was positive for the potential low. All weekly indicators are deep in oversold territory and show positive divergencies. If $180 doesn't hold $140-160 is the target.

Nasdaq, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -8.02% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $10971)
*comment/Oct01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked the start of the new leg down. Today is the first time the price dived below $11K since Sept 2020. I still expect $10579 to be hit by mid-October. After that, the target is $9750. The bull's territory is now far away at $12.5K and it seems it will not be visited anytime soon. Rallies should be sold. I am short this market via SandP.

Russell 2000, last signal 35-39 SELL, 9 days, -6.87% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1664)
*comment/Oct01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked the start of a new leg down. The 92-96 has bearishly rejected the buy signal. The first downside target is $1534. Rallies should be sold. I am short this market via SandP.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 223 days, +143.85% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 3.8%)
*comment/Sep27: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The yield is above 3.5% and spiking up erratically. This is a sign of serious problems in the debt market. Everyone should be very careful with being exposed to these conditions.
NEW/Sep29: 4% level was hit and produced a strong reaction to the downside. The double sell setup that existed 2 weeks ago is now gone and the order of SKI indices is supportive for more upside but we will probably see some correction first. The support is around 3.3% and rising.

XAU, 16-20 crossed to SELL (also, 16-20 to BUY 97.07/-3.81% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $100.91)
*comment/Sep27: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The low so far is $90.08. The long-term uptrend is being tested at $90. A flush to $80-85 is probable in my opinion. For the record, XAU performed the life run price pattern 2up5down -2.23% per day.
NEW/Oct01: XAU bounced off the critical support line in a perfect manner while at the same time performed a life run low price pattern. This 16-20 sell signal looks promising for a potential bottom but the elusive 35-39 is needed for confirmation.

ASA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 9 days, -4.42% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12.53)
*comment/Sep27: ASA is in a bearish configuration. We are on the way to $12 (done) and probably beyond. The weekly rPrice(200) is -28.7%, at the corona low it was -23.1%. On the daily chart, the current rPrice(200) is -35.4% and at the corona low, it was -30%. In Nov 2015 it was -55% so I guess we cannot be sure that this is the bottom but some kind of relief rally should ensue soon. Sentiment indicators are showing divergencies across the board.
NEW/Sep29: ASA has been a leading indicator for the gold sector since 2020 and for now it is significantly underperforming other gold indices. Something to keep an eye on.

Bitcoin, on 16-20 BUY, 14 days, -3.81% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19360
*comment: BTC is in a bearish configuration. The price advance was rejected at $25K and the 35-39 index sold so it is probably starting a new leg down. The next target is $13K. Technically the measured target from the broken head and shoulders chart pattern is $3.5K(!?) but the timeframe for that is the second part of 2023. The bulls need a new 35-39 or 92-96 buy signal to prevent the leg down.
NEW/Sep29: BTC is in a do-or-die setup. After the July low, the price is being squeezed between the downtrend line and the horizontal support around 18K. Now there is no more space to avoid a resolution. Above $20-21K and a powerful double buy $35-39/92-96 will be generated to target $30-34K. On the other side, below $18K and the breakdown to target $13K.

COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 5 days, +5.06% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.26)
*comment/24Sep: COPX is in a bearish configuration. I said before that "The next signal will decide the character of the next leg, a 16-20 sell ($32ish) means a potential breakout and a 35-39 sell means more pain (target $22ish)". Today we got the answer, 35-39 sell it is. This setup is probably worth shorting. $26.01 is the low for now but the final target is around $21. A rise over $32 would negate this setup.

DXY (dollar index), on 92-96 true BUY, 322 days, +21.24% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $112.17)
*comment/23Sep: The DXY is in a bullish configuration. The price is departing from the critical $110 level. The SKI structure is gradually strengthening again, suggesting more advances ahead. The 10yy and TLT are confirming. The target is $121.07.
NEW/Sep30: Nothing has been broken yet but the strong rejection by the $114 level suggests we might have a new shot at some kind of a top. From the 1h chart, I went long CHFUSD (1.0215) for a short-term trade. Stop loss 1.012.

GDX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, nonxxed(true), 26 days,
-7.69% (also, 16-20 to SELL 24.37/+1.04% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $24.12)
*comment: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal is being rejected while the crucial $25 level is being lost again. That is not bullish. The downside potential is quite substantial if the recent low ($22.97) gives up.
NEW/24Sep: The price sliced convincingly through the $22.97 low. That means more downside is ahead of us. The first target is a gap at $21.93 (done), then $20.55 and ultimately $16-17ish. In the search for the potential low, we can look at the 881-885 index buy signal especially if it is combined with visiting 2020 lows and a proper rPrice reading. I'll give more details if we get there.
NEW/Oct01: 881-885 index bought. rPrice(200) is -30.6%, at the corona low it was -29.68% (that's positive). There are indicator divergencies across the board. This 881-888 buy signal combined with the rPrice reading and the strong upside reaction that it has produced is promising. We still need a rise over $25 to confirm the bottom (a 16-20 sell would help). Either we stop the fall here or real devastation is coming ($16-17).

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 26 days,
-9.66% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.46)
*comment/Sep27: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 buy signal has been rejected again. The recent low ($28.08) has been exceeded. The targets are $26 (done) and then $23-24 area.

GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 12 days, -0.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $154.67)
*comment/Sep27: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked a breakdown. The low didn't hold. The target is now at $148ish (gold spot $1590ish) rather than my previously stated $150-152.
NEW/Sep29: So far the low was at $151.03. Maybe my initial call for the bottom in the $150-152 area was correct? Let's see what happens. We need a new 16-20 sell (above $156-158) to break the downtrend.
NEW/Oct01: Friday's close was pretty bad because it pushed the price below the resistance at the last hour. This is quite normal for Fridays so it is not a big deal if the next week the price can rally above $156.04 and approach and eventually sell the 16-20 index. If $156 proves to be too hard to crack then we will see another test of the recent low and maybe hit my target at $148 ($1590 spot).

SLV, last signal 35-39 SELL, 6 days, +0.81% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.5)
*comment/23Sep: The SKI structure is bearish. The 16-20 index generated a sell signal and was joined by the 35-39 sell for a double sell. This pattern has marked a top and a start of a new leg down (target $15-16). The price needs to rise over $19 to negate these signals.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 19 days, -5.67% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $104.9)
*comment/23Sep: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The potentially bullish 35-39 buy didn't hold so everything is bearish now. As suspected, the price fell below $110 and then accelerated. The weekly rPrice(200) is at
-12.53%. The minimum recorded since the inception of TLT was -10.33% at the 2008 low. On the daily chart the minimum was in Nov 2008 -13.45%, today it is -11.93 so by this measure there is some more space to go but we should be close to the bottom. I think the target should be sub $107 for the final bottom ($107.53 Nov 2018 low, 107.37 Mar 2020 low). Considering the strong momentum I expect this to happen sooner than later, probably by October 2022.
NEW/27Sep: A strong flush under $107 today but no signs of the bottom so far. The corona low has been exceeded but it seems this can go further.
NEW/Oct01: Finally some traction was shown two days ago but a new low was recorded yesterday ($104.63). We need support to kick in and rise above $109 for signs of bottom forming.

TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 26 days, -9.15% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $102.45)
*comment/27Sep: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That was bearish and the price immediately fell down to test and exceed the recent low (the new low is $105.27). The next target is $101.17 (Dec 2013 low). On the other hand, the weekly rPrice(200) reading is -26%. That is by far the lowest on record since the TLT was introduced. Usually, that would mean that some type of correction is due but considering the strong momentum we should probably focus on that $101 target for now.
NEW/Sep29: Finally a strong reaction after the $101 target was hit. We need to follow through and rise to sell 16-20 for a chance of the bottom.

UCO (crude oil ETF), on 16-20 BUY, onpath, xxed, 19 days, -19.32% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $26.26)
*comment/Sep27: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. Approaching the support zone at $25ish but I expect it to dive under and touch/break $23-24 before a correction.
NEW/Sep29: So far the low was $25.12. We will see if we get that flush under $25 before the correction starts.

URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 5 days, +4.21% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to BUY 21.38/+7.87% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $19.82)
*comment/24Sep: The chart is in a bearish configuration. A bullish 92-96 buy signal fell short by one day and then the whole bullish setup blew up by selling the 35-39 index. The execution of the 16-20/35-39 buy/sell combo could mark the low but given the severity of the failed setup and the overall equity market condition, I am expecting further losses. The first target is $17.78 and then lower to touch the bottom of the downtrend channel at $14-15ish.
NEW/Sep29: So far the 35-39/16-20 combo signal marked the low. If the rise continues and the $22 level is regained a 92-96 true buy signal would be generated but it would have a weak structure. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Oct01: The more time passes by the more this looks like a setup to go short.

USERX, last signal 35-39 SELL, 9 days, -0.91%; run pattern in-progress 3D/4U/+2.0%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.75)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above the $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/Sep29: The 35-39 index sold. The fall continues, the current target area is 881-885 index. The back prices of this index sit between $6.66 and $7.38 for the next 15 days. Where to look for a possible bottom? The weekly rPrice(200) at the 2020 low was -23.55%, and the current is -21.54% so we are in the ballpark. The $8.0 area is the support emanating from the 2015 low and if broken hard but then recovered quickly we might be close to the low. Let's see if and how we hit the 881-885 index and behaviour around that level. If the behaviour implies strong support and it is combined with a favourable rPrice reading the low might be in. I have posted the USERX weekly chart in my "USERX and XGD.AX chart" thread for everyone to see how important this juncture is. 61.8% Fibo, 2020 uptrend, 2022 downtrend and 2013 horizontal support all are converging into this $8 level so it better hold.

Australian XGD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 20 days, -0.2% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4638)
*comment: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4765 target was hit the rally started and the price rose above the 35-39 index but then fell back below it for bearishness.
NEW/Oct01: The price is hitting the short-term downtrend line. This should provide resistance for this week. We need to overcome $4600 and sell the 16-20 to improve the chance of the low.
We are in my accumulation zone. 35% long. No stops for now.