The State Of Indices, 15/10/2022

 SandP 500, last signal 35-39 SELL, 21 days, -7.49% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $3583)

*comment/Oct01 : S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3791 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price has closed below this level on a monthly basis so the crash scenario is active now. I am looking for $3400-3495 as the first target (based on the 2020 low, done). Very long-term, based on the 2009 low the first target would be $3226 then $2735 then $2243 and ultimately sub $2000.
NEW/Oct13: New closing low for the year. At daily and weekly charts the SandP is at the support but the 10yy is flashing danger. I think the CPI report will be the trigger for a new quick leg up or down. On the upside, the $3800 level is strong resistance. On the downside, the $3400-3500 is strong support. I was thinking today 'everyone is bearish' so we probably get the rally first. But then, I was thinking 'because everyone is bearish everyone is also expecting FED to pivot soon'. This sentiment also needs to be done with so maybe the flush of support first to make people give up hope of the pivot? I am short this market via NDX. I have tightened the stops.
NEW/Oct14: All I described above has transpired but instead of a few days it all took less than three hours. Amazing. CPI came out strong and my target of $3495 was hit in a matter of minutes. Then, from 'everyone is bearish' to 'everyone expects the pivot' another 10 min for an epic rally. If the next session doesn't flip everything again I do not expect the rally to exceed the 16-20 sell signal ($3800-3900). If the FED hints at slowing down or pivoting then all bets are off, we might start a bull market (not expected). I am looking to reinstate a short position. Ideally around $4100 but more likely I will start layering in before.

HUI, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to SELL 190.35/+3.69% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $183.57)
*comment/Oct01: HUI is in a bearish configuration. As suggested before, critical support is being tested. $180 needs to hold because it is the long-term support originating from the 2015 low. So far the low is 172.86 and that dive under $180 produced a strong reaction to the upside. The 16-20 sell signal was positive for the potential low. All weekly indicators are deep in oversold territory and show positive divergencies. If $180 doesn't hold $140-160 is the target.
NEW/Oct15: 16-20 buy signal has been generated. Not what I hoped for but nothing has been broken yet. $180 needs to hold.

Nasdaq, last signal 35-39 SELL, 22 days, -10.36% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $10692)
*comment/Oct01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked the start of the new leg down. Today is the first time the price dived below $11K since Sept 2020. I still expect $10579 to be hit by mid-October. After that, the target is $9750. The bull's territory is now far away at $12.5K and it seems it will not be visited anytime soon. Rallies should be sold.
NEW/Oct07: I shorted the NFP news. My stop is already breakeven ($11320). The target is $10579.
NEW/Oct12: We are back to 4%ish yields and NDX is on the brink of breaking down. If the 10yy spikes above 4% I expect NDX to hit my target at $10579 quickly but that would be just the first step towards $9500ish. The CPI report might be a trigger if it is surprisingly high. If it comes lower than expected then a strong rally is most probable but I would expect it to be short-lived.
NEW/Oct15: My target was hit I closed the position for a nice profit. I expect the $12500 level to be a strong resistance where I will be looking to establish a short position again.

Russell 2000, last signal 35-39 SELL, 19 days, -5.88% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1682)
*comment/Oct01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 35-39 sell signal marked the start of a new leg down. The 92-96 has bearishly rejected the buy signal. The first downside target is $1534. Rallies should be sold.
NEW/Oct15: Russel has quite a nice bullish setup if it can overcome $1900 but for now the trend is down.

10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 233 days, +157.05% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.01%)
*comment/Sep27: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The yield is above 3.5% and volatile. This is a sign of serious problems in the debt market. Everyone should be very careful with being exposed to these conditions.
NEW/Sep29: 4% level was hit and produced a strong reaction to the downside. The double sell setup that existed 2 weeks ago is now gone and the order of SKI indices is supportive for more upside but we will probably see some correction/consolidation first. The support is around 3.3% and rising.
NEW/Oct12: We are back to 4%ish yields and markets are on the brink of breaking down. If the 10yy spikes above 4% I expect Nasdaq to hit my target at $10579 quickly but that would be just the first step towards $9500ish.
NEW/Oct15: 10yy closed above 4% and the trend is up. My NDX and SandP targets were hit. The question is now, are we going into a full-blown crash or there will be a correction first? I am positioned for a correction but will quickly change my mind if 10yy keeps pushing up.

XAU, 16-20 crossed to BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to SELL 99.72/+3.42% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $96.42)
*comment/Sep27: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The low so far is $90.08. The long-term uptrend is being tested at $90. A flush to $80-85 is probable in my opinion. For the record, XAU performed the life run price pattern 2up5down -2.23% per day.
NEW/Oct01: XAU bounced off the critical support line in a perfect manner while at the same time it performed a life-run low price pattern. This 16-20 sell signal looks promising for a potential bottom but the elusive 35-39 is needed for confirmation.
NEW/Oct06: If the bottom is in, as suggested by the life run low pattern and historically oversold conditions, a 35-39 buy signal should generate before the 16-20 buy to finally break free of the downtrend. I do think that this is the probable play here.
NEW/Oct15: So I was wrong about the 35-39 buy, the 16-20 came first. Nothing has been broken yet. $90 needs to hold.

ASA, last signal 35-39 SELL, 19 days, -3.74% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12.62)
*comment/Sep27: ASA is in a bearish configuration. We are on the way to $12 (done) and probably beyond. The weekly rPrice(200) is -28.7%, at the corona low it was -23.1%. On the daily chart, the current rPrice(200) is -35.4% and at the corona low, it was -30%. In Nov 2015 it was -55% so I guess we cannot be sure that this is the bottom but some kind of relief rally should ensue soon. Sentiment indicators are showing divergencies across the board.
NEW/Sep29: ASA has been a leading indicator for the gold sector since 2020 and for now it is significantly underperforming other gold indices. Something to keep an eye on.
NEW/Oct07: Still seriously underperforming. This worries me, to be honest.
NEW/Oct15: If $12 is lost, $10.5-11.0 is the target.

Bitcoin, last signal 92-96 SELL (TRIPLE SELL), 6 days,
-1.43% (also, 16-20 to BUY 18801/-1.91% or lower; 35-39 to BUY 21680/+13.1% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $19168
*comment/Oct09: BTC is in a bearish configuration. Today the 92-96 index sold for a TRIPLE SELL. The downtrend line didn't break yet as well as the support line so I am not sure if it is up or down from here. The rise over 21K will again flip the signals (bullishness, target $30Kish). If the 18K is broken to the downside I will go short (bearishness, target $13Kish). I think the breakdown is more probable but...

COPX (copper miners ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 15 days, +4.24% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.04)
*comment/24Sep: COPX is in a bearish configuration. I said before that "The next signal will decide the character of the next leg, a 16-20 sell ($32ish) means a potential breakout and a 35-39 sell means more pain (target $22ish)". Today we got the answer, 35-39 sell it is. This setup is probably worth shorting. $26.01 is the low for now but the final target is around $21. A rise over $32 would negate this setup.

DXY (dollar index), on 92-96 true BUY, 332 days, +22.46% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $113.3)
*comment/23Sep: The DXY is in a bullish configuration. The price is departing from the critical $110 level. The SKI structure is gradually strengthening again, suggesting more advances ahead. The 10yy and TLT are confirming. The target is $121.07.
NEW/Sep30: Nothing has been broken yet but the strong rejection by the $114 level suggests we might have a new shot at some kind of a top.
NEW/Oct06: I am looking for an entry to go short (over $115) or to go long if 16-20 bought.

GDX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -5.41% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $22.72)
*comment/Oct06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. After the flush of the crucial $25 level ($21.52 low) combined with the 881-888 index buy signal and favourable rPrice reading the price surged back above $25 to potentially buy that 35-39 index that has been avoided for so long. If the low is in I fully expect the 35-39 index to buy before the 16-20 buy and finally puts to rest the issue of the long-term bottom. After the 35-39 buy I expect the correction. If we lose $25 again before the 35-39 buy signal and the 16-20 buy doesn't stop the fall then real devastation is coming ($16-17). That is not expected.
NEW/Oct12: The scenario that I considered less probable is in play, 16-20 bought before the 35-39. Now, the signal needs to hold or the crash to $16-17 is coming. The low so far was $21.52 but before that I expect $23 to show some support.
NEW/Oct15: $23 did show support but just for a day. The 16-20 index buy is failing and is resisting a new sell signal. Seems like a breakdown is underway. $20.0 is an immediate target.

GDXJ, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 3 days, -6.57% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $27.75)
*comment/Oct06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. After the flush of the $28 level ($25.8 low) combined with the 881-888 index buy signal and favourable rPrice reading the price surged back above $28 to potentially buy that 35-39 index that has been avoided for so long. If the low is in I fully expect the 35-39 index to buy in the next two weeks and finally puts to rest the issue of the long-term bottom. After the 35-39 buy I expect the correction. If we lose $28 again before the 35-39 buy signal and the 16-20 buy doesn't stop the fall real devastation is coming ($20-22). That is not expected.
NEW/Oct12: The scenario that I considered less probable is in play, 16-20 bought before the 35-39. Now, the signal needs to hold or the crash to $120-22 is coming. The low so far was $25.8 but before that I expect $28 to show some support.
NEW/Oct15: $28 did show support but just for a day. The 16-20 index buy is failing and is resisting a new sell signal. Seems like a breakdown is underway. $24.5 is an immediate target.

GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 22 days, -1.29% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $152.98)
*comment/Oct13: GLD chart is in bearish configuration. The price action of the last 7 days is negative. The 16-20 sell was rejected at the exact resistance line ($160) and it keeps being rejected despite an excellent setup. The fall needs to stop around $154 or the price will be back in the downtrend channel. With the ASA diverging from the other indices this doesn't look good especially if the silver setup falls apart as well (SLV under $17).

SLV, 16-20 BUY executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $16.81)
*comment/Oct06: The SKI structure is still bearish but this 35-39 buy on the path not xxed is a significant development. The SKI structure of the buy is sound. It was preceded by a precise 660-664 buy signal at the exact low combined with historically bullish COT readings and the flush of significant levels going back to 2013. I think the bottom is in. I increased my physical silver stock by 30% last week and am very long silver stocks. The 35-39 buy needs to hold.
NEW/Oct13: 35-39 sold. If now the price closes under $17 it will be confirmation that something is wrong. If, on the other hand, the price turns around and buys the 35-39 back it will generate a bullish buy (potentially a double buy if a 16-20 buy precedes).
NEW/Oct15: 35-39 sold before the 16-20 bought, which is bearish. The price closed under $17.0, also bearish. We need a reversal on Monday, otherwise, $15.5 is the target.

TIP, last signal 35-39 SELL, 29 days, -4.96% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $105.69)
*comment/23Sep: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The potentially bullish 35-39 buy didn't hold so everything is bearish now. As suspected, the price fell below $110 and then accelerated. The weekly rPrice(200) is at
-12.53%. The minimum recorded since the inception of TLT was -10.33% at the 2008 low. On the daily chart the minimum was in Nov 2008 -13.45%, today it is -11.93 so by this measure there is some more space to go but we should be close to the bottom. I think the target should be sub $107 for the final bottom ($107.53 Nov 2018 low, 107.37 Mar 2020 low). Considering the strong momentum I expect this to happen sooner than later, probably by October 2022.
NEW/27Sep: A strong flush under $107 today but no signs of the bottom so far. The corona low has been exceeded but it seems this can go further.
NEW/Oct01: Finally some traction was shown (the low so far was $104.63). We need support to kick in and a price rise above $109 for signs of bottom forming.

TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 36 days, -12.59% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $98.57)
*comment/27Sep: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That was bearish and the price immediately fell down to test and exceed the recent low (the new low is $105.27). The next target is $101.17 (Dec 2013 low). On the other hand, the weekly rPrice(200) reading is -26%. That is by far the lowest on record since the TLT was introduced. Usually, that would mean that some type of correction is due but considering the strong momentum we should probably focus on that $101 target for now.
NEW/Sep29: Finally a strong reaction after the $101 target was hit. We need to follow through and rise to sell 16-20 for a chance of the bottom.
NEW/Oct11: New low today ($98.79). $97.5 is the new target.

UCO (crude oil ETF), 16-20 crossed to BUY (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 29.54/-1.43% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $29.97)
*comment/Sep27: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. Approaching the support zone at $25ish but I expect it to dive under and touch/break $23-24 before a correction.
NEW/Sep29: So far the low was $25.12. We will see if we get that flush under $25 before the correction starts.
NEW/Oct06: I guess we didn't get that flush that I mentioned above. We are approaching the 16-20 sell signal which could be a shorting opportunity but this time only short-term.
NEW/Oct07: The 16-20 sell signal has been generated. Good opportunity for going short.
NEW/Oct19: 16-20 index generated buy signal. Probably a good point to tighten stops if one went short on the sell signal.

URA (uranium stocks ETF), last signal 35-39 SELL, 15 days, -1.26% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $18.78)
*comment/24Sep: The chart is in a bearish configuration. A bullish 92-96 buy signal fell short by one day and then the whole bullish setup blew up by selling the 35-39 index. The execution of the 16-20/35-39 buy/sell combo could mark the low but given the severity of the failed setup and the overall equity market condition, I am expecting further losses. The first target is $17.78 and then lower to touch the bottom of the downtrend channel at $14-15ish.
NEW/Sep29: So far the 35-39/16-20 combo signal marked the low. If the rise continues and the $22 level is regained a 92-96 true buy signal would be generated but it would have a weak structure. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Oct01: The more time passes by the more this looks like a setup to go short.
NEW/Oct09: 92-96 is rejecting the advance again. Probably a good short right here.

USERX, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days, -3.78%; run pattern in-progress 1U/2D/-2.07%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.39)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega-important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/Sep29: The 35-39 index sold. The fall continues, the current target area is the 881-885 index. The back prices of this index sit between $6.66 and $7.38 for the next 15 days. Where to look for a possible bottom? The weekly rPrice(200) at the 2020 low was -23.55%, and the current is -21.54% so we are in the ballpark. The $8.0 area is the support emanating from the 2015 low and if broken hard but then recovered quickly we might be close to the low. Let's see if and how we hit the 881-885 index and behaviour around that level. If the behaviour implies strong support and it is combined with a favourable rPrice reading the low might be in. I have posted the USERX weekly chart in my "USERX and XGD.AX chart" thread for everyone to see how important this juncture is. 61.8% Fibo, 2020 uptrend, 2022 downtrend and 2013 horizontal support all are converging into this $8 level so it better hold.
NEW/Oct11: 16-20 buy signal has been generated before a new 35-39 buy. That's not what I expected and preferred. We might be in for another test of $8 crucial support. A quick 16-20 sell again and then the 35-39 buy is the path to consolidation. I am still bullish but caution is warranted here. As I stated many times, we need the price to be over the $10.28 level again to be sure that the big picture has changed, but that is not possible without the 35-39 buy signal.

Australian XGD, on 16-20 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to NOT SELL 4546/-2.9% or lower; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4682)
*comment/Oct07: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4400-4600 target was hit the rally started and the 16-20 index sold. The next signal will be either 16-20 buy or 35-39 buy, both of them bullish but the 35-39 more so. If the 16-20 comes first I start accumulating again. If the 35-39 comes first I will be looking for a correction to add to my long position.
NEW/Oct13: the 16-20 bought before the 35-39, not what I expected. I am going to start accumulating again. No rush, probably will wait until $4400 is hit again. If a juxtaposed 16-20 sell is generated I might start adding without waiting for further weakness. On my 20% long trading position, I do not have stops for now.