SandP 500, 92-96 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $3871)
*Comment/Oct31: S and P chart is in a bearish configuration. The $3815 level is 36 months MAV representing the bull market support. The price closed below this level at the end of September (for a possible crash) but now (end of October) it closed above it again for an instant reversal. There are more signs that the tide is turning around. The 92-96 generated a true bull buy signal and the 439-443 index also generated a similar buy signal. There are multiple other charts corroborating these signals across the board (DOW, Nasdaq, Russell, TRAN, AAPL, Platinum, Uranium, Etherium). The problem I have with this setup is that a similar signal is not generated on the classical TA charts where the real resistance lies above at around $4100. The second problem is that the SKI structure of this signal is weak and only a strong rally a la July 2022 will prevent the 92-96 index from selling quickly. The third problem is that the dollar and 10yy didn't even break the current short-term trends let alone generate bearish signals. I am staying away from this market (except my 20% long position in Aussie golds) until the FED meeting this Wednesday. After that, I will reassess.
HUI, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 4 days, -3.72% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $195.73)
*comment/Oct01: HUI is in a bearish configuration. As suggested before, critical support is being tested. $180 needs to hold because it is the long-term support originating from the 2015 low. So far the low is 172.86 and that dive under $180 produced a strong reaction to the upside. The 16-20 sell signal was positive for the potential low. All weekly indicators are deep in oversold territory and show positive divergencies. If $180 doesn't hold $140-160 is the target.
NEW/Oct25: We are back to try to buy the 35-39 index. If it fails again or quickly buys and sells I think $180 support is going to fall. A rise to $220ish is needed to confirm the bottom.
NEW/Nov01: 35-39 buy is showing weakness. Not a good sign. If it sells again I suspect the $180 level will be breached.
$NDX - Nasdaq, 92-96 crossed to BUY, onpath, xxed (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 11573/+1.47% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 to NOT SELL 11528/+1.08% or higher; 218-222 on SELL; current $11405)
*comment/Nov01: The chart is in a bearish configuration. The 92-96 index bought but the buy is xxed. The SKI structure of the signal is weak and is executed below the classical TA resistance level ($12K) which is not supportive of a sustained rally here. I think I am going to try a new short position on the next 92-96 sell signal. The higher it happens the better, ideally $12-12.5K. If the 92-96 buy can hold for more than 2 months we might reach a new ATH in the first quarter of 2023 (not expected).
$RUT - Russell 2000, on 92-96 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, +0.0% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 to BUY 1882/+1.95% or higher; 92-96 breaking to SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $1846)
*comment/Nov01: The chart is in a bearish configuration but a bullish 92-96 true buy signal has been generated. The SKI structure of it is better than the S and P and Nasdaq chart but is still below the classical TA resistance which is positioned at $1900ish (that is not confirming the signal). If $1900 can be overcome the structure will turn bullish and I will take that into consideration for a possible switch to the long side of the market. For now, I am looking for signs of weakness to reinstate the short position.
$TNX - 10Y yield, on 92-96 BUY onpath, notxxed(true), juxtaposed, 244 days, +161.35% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current 4.08%)
*comment/Sep27: 10Y yield is in a true bull market. The yield is above 3.5% and volatile. This is a sign of serious problems in the debt market. Everyone should be very careful with being exposed to these conditions.
NEW/Sep29: 4% level was hit and produced a strong reaction to the downside. The double sell setup that existed 2 weeks ago is now gone and the order of SKI indices is supportive for more upside but we will probably see some correction/consolidation first. The support is around 3.3% and rising.
NEW/Oct12: We are back to 4%ish yields and markets are on the brink of breaking down. If the 10yy spikes above 4% I expect Nasdaq to hit my target at $10579 quickly but that would be just the first step towards $9500ish.
NEW/Oct15: 10yy closed above 4% and the trend is up. My NDX and SandP targets were hit. The question is now, are we going into a full-blown crash or there will be a correction first? I am positioned for a correction but will quickly change my mind if 10yy keeps pushing up.
NEW/Nov01: The expected correction is in progress. 3.9-4% is behaving like support for now. No damage to the trend has been done so far which is not supportive of the SandP and Nasdaq bullish signals. For this confirmation to happen at least 3.8% needs to be breached but more importantly 3.6%. We will see what the next FED meeting brings to the table.
XAU, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 4 days,
-3.56% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY>>to SELL 108.91/+5.42% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $103.31)
*comment/Sep27: XAU is in a bearish configuration. The low so far is $90.08. The long-term uptrend is being tested at $90. A flush to $80-85 is probable in my opinion. For the record, XAU performed the life run price pattern 2up5down -2.23% per day.
NEW/Oct01: XAU bounced off the critical support line in a perfect manner while at the same time it performed a life-run low price pattern. This 16-20 sell signal looks promising for a potential bottom but the elusive 35-39 is needed for confirmation.
NEW/Oct06: If the bottom is in, as suggested by the life run low pattern and historically oversold conditions, a 35-39 buy signal should generate before the 16-20 buy to finally break free of the downtrend. I do think that this is the probable play here.
NEW/Oct15: So I was wrong about the 35-39 buy, the 16-20 came first. Nothing has been broken yet. $90 needs to hold.
NEW/Oct25: It seems we will get that 35-39 buy in the end. Should be enough to take the price up to $115-120ish.
NEW/Nov01: 35-39 buy is showing weakness. Not a good sign. If it sells again I suspect the $90 level will be breached.
ASA, 16-20 BUY executed today (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $12.18)
*comment/Nov01: ASA is in a bearish configuration and consistently showing underperformance compared to other gold indices. Since the ASA has been the leading indicator since 2020 this is not a good sign for the gold sector. The chart looks weak structurally and in absolute terms. This 16-20 buy needs to hold. If $12 is lost, $10.5-11.0 is the target.
Bitcoin, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 4 days, -0.92% (also, 16-20 on SELL; 35-39 on BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $20406
*comment/Oct09: BTC is in a bearish configuration. Today the 92-96 index sold for a TRIPLE SELL. The downtrend line didn't break yet as well as the support line so I am not sure if it is up or down from here. The rise over 21K will again flip the signals (bullishness, target $30Kish). If the 18K is broken to the downside I will go short (bearishness, target $13Kish). I think the breakdown is more probable but...
NEW/Nov01: The triple sell signal didn't result in
a breakdown. The 35-39 index bought back but all is still inside the boundaries described above. I guess not much has changed. Still waiting for a break above $21K or below $18K. These levels are now more important than SKI signals.
COPX (copper miners ETF), 35-39 SELL executed today (also, 16-20 BUY executed today; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $28.67)
*comment/Nov01: COPX is in a bearish configuration. I said for the last 35-39 sell signal (23d Sept) that it was probably worth shorting but it marked the low. Today we are in a similar position. Normally, today's 35-39 sell signal would be shortable but given the effect that the FED meetings have on the overall market, it is probably more advisable just to wait until after the meeting. Then, see if $27 gets broken to the downside ($21 target) or $32 gets broken to the upside ($38 target).
DXY (dollar index), on 92-96 true BUY, 343 days, +20.6% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on BUY; 218-222 on BUY; current $111.58)
*comment/23Sep: The DXY is in a bullish configuration. The price is departing from the critical $110 level. The SKI structure is gradually strengthening again, suggesting more advances ahead. The 10yy and TLT are confirming. The target is $121.07.
NEW/Sep30: Nothing has been broken yet but the strong rejection by the $114 level suggests we might have a new shot at some kind of a top.
NEW/Oct06: I am looking for an entry to go short (over $115) or to go long if 16-20 bought.
NEW/Oct25: 16-20 did buy but I am staying put. I think the market needs more time to make a move.
NEW/Nov01: The move since the $114 level was touched still looks like consolidation, the short-term uptrend is holding well, with no damage. The 35-39 index needs to sell in order to weaken the trend and possibly confirm the bullish S and P and Nasdaq signals. I am watching for now.
GDX, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed, 4 days, -3.86% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $24.16)
*comment/Oct06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. After the flush of the crucial $25 level ($21.52 low) combined with the 881-888 index buy signal and favourable rPrice reading the price surged back above $25 to potentially buy that 35-39 index that has been avoided for so long. If the low is in I fully expect the 35-39 index to buy before the 16-20 buy and finally puts to rest the issue of the long-term bottom. After the 35-39 buy I expect the correction. If we lose $25 again before the 35-39 buy signal and the 16-20 buy doesn't stop the fall then real devastation is coming ($16-17). That is not expected.
NEW/Oct12: The scenario that I considered less probable is in play, 16-20 bought before the 35-39. Now, the signal needs to hold or the crash to $16-17 is coming. The low so far was $21.52 but before that I expect $23 to show some support.
NEW/Oct15: $23 did show support but just for a day. The 16-20 index buy is failing and is resisting a new sell signal. Seems like a breakdown is underway. $20.0 is an immediate target.
NEW/Oct25: 16-20 buy succeded to stop the fall and a new 16-20 sell signal was generated. Now we need the 35-39 buy signal and a rise over $25 to give the bulls a chance. $22 needs to hold.
NEW/Nov01: 35-39 buy is showing weakness. Not a good sign. If it sells again I suspect the $22 level will be breached.
GDXJ, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, xxed, 3 days, -1.93% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 to NOT SELL 29.94/+1.49% or higher; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $29.5)
*comment/Oct06: The chart is in a bearish configuration. After the flush of the $28 level ($25.8 low) combined with the 881-888 index buy signal and favourable rPrice reading the price surged back above $28 to potentially buy that 35-39 index that has been avoided for so long. If the low is in I fully expect the 35-39 index to buy in the next two weeks and finally puts to rest the issue of the long-term bottom. After the 35-39 buy I expect the correction. If we lose $28 again before the 35-39 buy signal and the 16-20 buy doesn't stop the fall real devastation is coming ($20-22). That is not expected.
NEW/Oct12: The scenario that I considered less probable is in play, 16-20 bought before the 35-39. Now, the signal needs to hold or the crash to $120-22 is coming. The low so far was $25.8 but before that I expect $28 to show some support.
NEW/Oct15: $28 did show support but just for a day. The 16-20 index buy is failing and is resisting a new sell signal. Seems like a breakdown is underway. $24.5 is an immediate target.
NEW/Oct25: 16-20 buy succeded to stop the fall and a new 16-20 sell signal was generated. Now we need the 35-39 buy signal and a rise over $32 to give the bulls a chance. $26 needs to hold.
NEW/Nov01: 35-39 buy is showing weakness. Not a good sign. If it sells again I suspect the $26 level will be breached.
GLD, last signal 35-39 SELL, 33 days, -1.98% (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $151.91)
*comment/Nov01: GLD chart is in a bearish configuration. The price action of the last 2 weeks is negative. The 16-20 sell was rejected at the exact resistance line ($160) and it keeps being rejected despite an excellent setup. The fall didn't stop at $154 and the price is almost back in the downtrend channel emanating from the March top. With the ASA diverging from the other indices this doesn't look good especially if the silver setup falls apart as well (SLV under $17). It seems that the immediate target is $147.44 but then if we go into the crash mode the target is around $136 (not expected for now).
SLV, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 5 days, -1.34% (also, 16-20 crossed to BUY; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $17.62)
*comment/Oct06: The SKI structure is still bearish but this 35-39 buy on the path not xxed is a significant development. The SKI structure of the buy is sound. It was preceded by a precise 660-664 buy signal at the exact low combined with historically bullish COT readings and the flush of significant levels going back to 2013. I think the bottom is in. I increased my physical silver stock by 30% last week and am very long silver stocks. The 35-39 buy needs to hold.
NEW/Oct13: 35-39 sold. If now the price closes under $17 it will be confirmation that something is wrong. If, on the other hand, the price turns around and buys the 35-39 back it will generate a bullish buy (potentially a double buy if a 16-20 buy precedes).
NEW/Oct15: 35-39 sold before the 16-20 bought, which is bearish. The price closed under $17.0, also bearish. We need a reversal on Monday, otherwise, $15.5 is the target.
NEW/Oct25: We got that reversal I was talking about above and the price is back in the upward channel. Today's double signal is marking either the top or the short-term breakout.
NEW/Nov01: The price is still above $17 which makes the setup still valid for a rally above $18.5 which would be a breakout. Having said that the 35-39 index is breaking towards a sell signal and all looks weak if we don't get the last-moment push upward. If the 35-39 sells I suspect the target is $15-15.5ish.
TIP, last signal 16-20 SELL, 2 days, -0.14% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL, current $106.39)
*comment/23Sep: TIPs are in a bearish configuration. The potentially bullish 35-39 buy didn't hold so everything is bearish now. As suspected, the price fell below $110 and then accelerated. The weekly rPrice(200) is at
-12.53%. The minimum recorded since the inception of TLT was -10.33% at the 2008 low. On the daily chart the minimum was in Nov 2008 -13.45%, today it is -11.93 so by this measure there is some more space to go but we should be close to the bottom. I think the target should be sub $107 for the final bottom ($107.53 Nov 2018 low, 107.37 Mar 2020 low). Considering the strong momentum I expect this to happen sooner than later, probably by October 2022.
NEW/27Sep: A strong flush under $107 today but no signs of the bottom so far. The corona low has been exceeded but it seems this can go further.
NEW/Oct01: Finally some traction was shown (the low so far was $104.63). We need support to kick in and a price rise above $109 for signs of bottom forming.
NEW/Nov01: We spent a month in the $105-107 range. Finally, the 16-20 index produced a SELL signal. This should mark a new leg up or down. The SKI structure favours a down move.
TLT, last signal 35-39 SELL, 47 days, -14.77% (also, 16-20 on BUY; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $96.11)
*comment/27Sep: TLT is in a bearish configuration. The setup that looked like a confirmed bottom broke apart, and the 35-39 index sold. That was bearish and the price immediately fell down to test and exceed the recent low (the new low is $105.27). The next target is $101.17 (Dec 2013 low). On the other hand, the weekly rPrice(200) reading is -26%. That is by far the lowest on record since the TLT was introduced. Usually, that would mean that some type of correction is due but considering the strong momentum we should probably focus on that $101 target for now.
NEW/Sep29: Finally a strong reaction after the $101 target was hit. We need to follow through and rise to sell 16-20 for a chance of the bottom.
NEW/Oct11: New low today ($98.79). $97.5 is the new target.
NEW/Oct25: Acceleration happened in the last few days. $90 is the target. If the acceleration continues it all looks like the system is falling apart. This chart is why I do not trust the equity market rally. Until the bond market stabilizes the risks are too high.
UCO (crude oil ETF), last signal 16-20 SELL, 10 days, +7.17% (also, 16-20 breaking to BUY; 35-39 to NOT BUY 29.62/-5.19% or lower; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on BUY; current $31.24)
*comment/Sep27: The UCO is in a bearish configuration. Approaching the support zone at $25ish but I expect it to dive under and touch/break $23-24 before a correction.
NEW/Sep29: So far the low was $25.12. We will see if we get that flush under $25 before the correction starts.
NEW/Oct06: I guess we didn't get that flush that I mentioned above. We are approaching the 16-20 sell signal which could be a shorting opportunity but this time only short-term.
NEW/Oct07: The 16-20 sell signal has been generated. Good opportunity for going short.
NEW/Oct19: 16-20 index generated buy signal. Probably a good point to tighten stops if one went short on the sell signal.
URA (uranium stocks ETF), 92-96 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true) (also, 16-20 to SELL 21.33/+5.59% or higher; 35-39 on SELL; 92-96 breaking to SELL (cannot sell tomorrow); 218-222 on SELL; current $20.2)
*comment/24Sep: The chart is in a bearish configuration. A bullish 92-96 buy signal fell short by one day and then the whole bullish setup blew up by selling the 35-39 index. The execution of the 16-20/35-39 buy/sell combo could mark the low but given the severity of the failed setup and the overall equity market condition, I am expecting further losses. The first target is $17.78 and then lower to touch the bottom of the downtrend channel at $14-15ish.
NEW/Sep29: So far the 35-39/16-20 combo signal marked the low. If the rise continues and the $22 level is regained a 92-96 true buy signal would be generated but it would have a weak structure. Let's see what happens.
NEW/Oct01: The more time passes by the more this looks like a setup to go short.
NEW/Oct09: 92-96 is rejecting the advance again. Probably a good short right here.
NEW/Oct25: $17.78 held so far but the setup is still bearish except if the 92-96 index buys ($20+ to get there).
NEW/Nov01: The 92-96 did buy for a true bull market. The signal structure is pretty sound but the buy happened below the classical TA resistance ($22) so it is not trustable until this level is exceeded.
USERX, 16-20 BUY executed today, onpath, notxxed(true); run pattern in-progress 2U/3D/-1.19%perday; xxing=off_off_off (also, 16-20 breaking to SELL; 35-39 breaking to BUY; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $8.46)
*comment: USERX is in a bearish configuration. The correction after the April high broke $10.28, the mega-important level marked at the 2016 top. The bounce did sell the 16-20 index as expected but couldn't break back above $10.28 and buy the 35-39 index. So far the resistance is firm. In my opinion, the $10.28 level is much more important than the 35-39 buy. Every critical move since 2016 has started or stopped around this level and the rejection here doesn't look good. The bulls need this level to be broken through or $7.5 starts looking like a target.
NEW/Sep29: The 35-39 index sold. The fall continues, the current target area is the 881-885 index. The back prices of this index sit between $6.6 and $6.75 for the next 15 days. Where to look for a possible bottom? The weekly rPrice(200) at the 2020 low was -23.55%, and the current is -21.54% so we are in the ballpark. The $8.0 area is the support emanating from the 2015 low and if broken hard but then recovered quickly we might be close to the low. Let's see if and how we hit the 881-885 index and behaviour around that level. If the behaviour implies strong support and it is combined with a favourable rPrice reading the low might be in. I have posted the USERX weekly chart in my "USERX and XGD.AX chart" thread for everyone to see how important this juncture is. 61.8% Fibo, 2020 uptrend, 2022 downtrend and 2013 horizontal support all are converging into this $8 level so it better hold.
NEW/Oct11: 16-20 buy signal has been generated before a new 35-39 buy. That's not what I expected and preferred. We might be in for another test of $8 crucial support. A quick 16-20 sell again and then the 35-39 buy is the path to consolidation. I am still bullish but caution is warranted here. As I stated many times, we need the price to be over the $10.28 level again to be sure that the big picture has changed, but that is not possible without the 35-39 buy signal.
NEW/Oct25: If the price closes tomorrow at $8.6+ the 660-664 sell signal will be generated. So far it has behaved as resistance and I expect this signal to mark the start of a new move. Up or down is the question. $8 needs to hold. If the move is up the target is $10ish.
NEW/Nov01: Nothing new, the 35-39 is rejecting the buy again. At the same time, the 660-664 exercises the downward pressure and the 16-20 a short-term support. When gold and ASA chart are taken into account it just doesn't feel like it will end up well. It seems that $8 will be broken. It all depends on the FED action now and I suspect it won't be bullish.
Australian XGD, on 35-39 BUY, onpath, notxxed(true), 2 days, -1.68% (also, 16-20 to NOT BUY 4877/+0.56% or higher; 35-39 breaking to SELL; 92-96 on SELL; 218-222 on SELL; current $4850)
*comment/Oct07: The XGD is in a bearish configuration. After the $4400-4600 target was hit the rally started and the 16-20 index sold. The next signal will be either 16-20 buy or 35-39 buy, both of them bullish but the 35-39 more so. If the 16-20 comes first I start accumulating again. If the 35-39 comes first I will be looking for a correction to add to my long position.
NEW/Oct13: the 16-20 bought before the 35-39, not what I expected. I am going to start accumulating again. No rush, probably will wait until $4400 is hit again. If a juxtaposed 16-20 sell is generated I might start adding without waiting for further weakness.
NEW/Oct25: The 35-39 buy signal is in play again. If it does generate I will add to my position. Otherwise, I will wait for $4400- to start accumulating again. On my 20% long trading position, I do not have stops for now.
NEW/Nov01: The 35-39 bought but the behaviour is weak. I am not adding and will put stops on my 20% long position (35-39 sell signal).
