I've analyzed the USERX price and the GLD price during the crash of 2008. I used the peak after the life run low as the starting point and the ensuing bottom as the final point.
USERX
The USERX 2008 crash lasted for about a month or 24 working days. The price fell from 13.74 to 7.08 or -48%. In that period it had 8 days falling 5% or more a day. Among those 4 days were 10%+ drops. It also had two of such days before the crash started (during the life run) and two after the bottom had been in place.
The current crash in USERX has been going on for 14 days. The drop so far is from 10.61 to 6.85 which makes it -35%. There were 5 days with 5%+ drops so far, two of them with 10%+ drop (or close). If we assume that the crash will be at least as bad as the 2008 crash the target is around 5.47 and we have about 10 more working days to go.
The chart pattern of both crashes are similar up to the point where the 2008 92-96 index sold which corresponds with our initial true bull sell back in December. After that, the 2008 price slowly deteriorated while the current one bought the 92-96 back sucking everyone in and then just suddenly collapsed. There was no warning and the stop loss was so far away it made the losses extraordinary.
Both crashes had a significant SKI system aberration, the first one had a huge life run low drawdown never recorded before and the current one has an extraordinary true bull buy signal drawdown, also never recorded before.
After the 2008 bottom, the USERX started an ascent into the 2011 top at 22.11. That was 212% above the bottom but only 61% above the top of 13.74 which is not exactly great for anyone who managed to hold through the crash.
2008 crash
current
GLD
Starting from the same day 22.09.2008 (in order to analyze the crash period only) the GLD 2008 crash lasted for 37 working days but it was very mild compared to the USERX. The price fell from 89.18 to 70 or -21.5%. In that period it had 5 days falling around 5% in a day but these days were often offset with similar up days. The crash in gold lagged the crash in stocks for 14 days in which time it had made a slightly higher high. When the crash ensued it lasted exactly 10 days.
The current pattern is very similar, after the crash started in USERX 14 days ago gold was going sideways and it did make a slightly higher high three days ago. If we keep replicating the 2008 crash we could say that we are in the GLD crash mode, in day 3 of the crash. We are currently down 5.3%, from 156.09 to 147.79. There is 15% more to go to reach the 2008 crash size.
After the 2008 bottom, GLD started an ascent into the 2011 top at 184.59. That was 163% above the bottom and 107% above the top of 89.18. This is much better than the gold stocks did.
The SKI difference is that today the price is above the 92-96 index and in 2008 it was bellow. I don't know what to make of that.
2008
current
The analysis above is just pure observation, not the prediction but it does put the things in perspective, at least from the time point of view. We are probably halfway through the crash. I assume that fundamentals for gold are much better today and potential is much higher. I think that the gold stocks are at risk while the virus spread is active so, for now, I am mostly in physical gold.
Since I assume that all the technical stuff is useless and we are running on pure emotions I decided to ignore the 92-96 sell signal of today and buy some gold stocks. Actually, I bought a lot when they were down between 15% and 30% today. It is a short term buy and will sell on Monday if we gap up. No stop loss. If we keep going down I'll buy more especially on a huge down day like today, until fully invested. No more physical gold for now.
Interesting times!
Good luck to everyone!
Branko
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