24/11/19 - Hope Dies Last

The irony of the current situation in the gold market is that technically nothing has been broken yet but the feeling is that the bull has already died. We are at the last possible week to get it going and there is only a little hope left that at the last minute a miracle will save us from the 92-96 sell signal. The saving scenario belongs to a "thread a needle" kind of scenarios and historically these almost never transpire.

USERX
Userx generated a double buy signal 16-20 and 35-39. Normally these kind of signals cause an instant short to medium term rallies. The closer together the better hence this one couldn't be more powerful. Having it inside a true bull should make it even more potent. Since the Wednesday last week I have a very strong urge to sell which is, again, a positive sign but I cannot help myself but be pessimistic. The only thing I know at this time is that, since there was a lack of a proper capitulation crash I will sell all my investment positions if the 92-96 sell happens. The scenario that would prevent me from doing it is if we continued current 2 days down to 5 or more days down and sell the 92-96 by the end of the next week at around 8 or bellow. In other words an immediate and undeniable crash wold make me happy. How ironic.

HUI
The HUI index looks better than USERX but the bad news is the 35-39 buy has marked the top for now. Knowing the history of the last two 35-39 signals this is a bad omen.

XAU
The same as HUI, the 35-39 buy marked an exact top so far. :(

GDX
Looks worst than the HUI. If it doesn't start moving up on Monday it will start breaking the 92-96.

GDXJ
The same as GDX, not looking good.

GLD
Looking better than any of the indices but it is under the trend line and the 16-20 is slowly covering the 35-39 and a move up will cause a 16-20 sell before a 35-35 buy which is not an optimal order of events.
The 92-96 echo is sitting at around 50% fibo retrace level and looking vulnerable.

SandP 500
Very bullish posture but it needs to make a short term retrace soon. Touching the 16-20 would really help the USERX short term.

Transport index
One negative for the SandP 500 is the transport index which cannot manage to get to the new highs to negate the negative impact of the Dow Theory. It is down to the trend line now and breaking the 92-96 echo. At the same time it has generated a new 16-20 buy that should help in preventing selling the 92-96.

XGD Australian gold stocks
Looks terrible, feels terrible, no signs of a bottom yet. If next week we go into a crash mode I would like to see a serious divergence from the USERX which would give me a confidence that the bottom is near. The bottom level at around 6200 or bellow would do it for me.

TLT bonds
Sold the 16-20 echo and needs to rise to the 35-39 buy in order to continue the bull market. It is still positively correlated to the gold market and this order of events doesn't really help (especially because it was preceded by a double sell 32 days ago).

UUP dollar
The double sell 16-20 and 35-39 signal from the last week did not cause any damage to this chart for now. I was expecting that this signal would help the gold but so far no good.

BitCoin
Bear market continues.

I am fully invested and waiting for a big move next week, up or down doesn't matter. For me the worst scenario would be a slow decline or a weak rise into the 92-96 sell. If that happens I'm out and will not expect a decent setup for a while.

Good luck to everyone!
Branko