USERX
The price action last week satisfied the scenario number 3 from the last week update. That is a good news but so far it is meek and it doesn't induce any confidence that it will continue in the same direction. The price is playing with the 16-20 echo and it can buy soon or just keep avoiding it. There is a possibility that, just before the 92-96 sells, a double buy signal is produced to get us out of trouble. We will see soon.
HUI
Hui has a bit more space to move up and down before the take off.
XAU
At the moment XAU looks the best among the gold indices. It is breaking the 35-39 without touching the 16-20
GDX
GDX is about to produce a 16-20 sell before a 35-39 buy. That is not the best order of events.
GLD
GLD is still comfortably far from the 92-96 echo but is deteriorating slowly but surely.
XGD Australia
Australian gold index looks terrible and feels terrible as well. There are no real signs of the bottom yet, it is just dripping and slow deterioration every day. The problem is this index has been a leading indicator for the USA golds for about 12 months now. If that is still intact look at this chart and you will see the USERX (GDX, XAU, HUI) in about a month.
UUP dollar
A glimpse of hope for gold can be seen in the dollar chart. It is almost certain that it will trigger a double sell signal 16-20 and 35-39 in the next few days. Usually these kind of signals create a significant weakness and an instant price drop. I will watch this.
TLT bonds
TLT is still on its double sell signal and if bonds and gold are still positively correlated than this chart is not a great support for the gold case. It seems like it wants to test the 92-96 support.
SPY SandP
The SandP chart is clearly bullish. This is how we would like the USERX chart to look like but...The triple sell setup is gone. The double sell setup is still present but it is now protected with the 16-20 echo and needs a failed 16-20 buy before it comes into play. That is now less likely.
Transport index
The only weakness that I can spot for SPY (DOW) for now is the transport index. It has not confirmed the new highs and that is in the Dow Theory a sign of an upcoming recession.
UCO crude oil
After failing a true 92-96 buy signal oil is showing some resilience and there is still a strong setup for a powerful double buy signal. If that happens it would be, in my opinion, positive for the gold.
BitCoin
Still in bear market
The time is running out and I have become pretty pessimistic that the gold is going to make the move needed to get out of the ditch. That is probably a good sign. I am long and haven't touched my investment position yet. As I said last week, I would have been happy if the USERX price just fell strongly into the 92-96 sell around 8.10-8.20, because I would expect that to be a significant bottom. If the opposite happens and we sell on the way up I expect that to be a top and new prolonged period of weakness to ensue. In that case I will sell.
Good luck this week!
Branko
No comments:
Post a Comment