Wednesday 2 October 2019

SKI charts 03.10.2019

I'll analyse only some charts that contain basic clues what is happening at the moment  


USERX
USERX is currently in a first serious correction since the inception of the bull. The 35-39 has generated a sell signal that should act as a support. Even if it doesn't there is a plenty of time before the price closes on the 92-96 echo. Time frame is till mid November. 


SandP 500
After months of sideways to up movement SandP is boxed into a position where it must rise into a new all time high territory or face some serious problems. If, by 30th of October, it is not above $3000 it will generate a double sell or triple sell, as shown on the chart. Based on two recent failures to go over and stay over 3000 it is more likely that one of two sell scenarios will transpire.


UUP - dollar long ETF
Dollar is in a relentless bull market since Apr 2018. There is no sign of it slowing down but it is important to point out that it is approaching a level marked by the 2008 crash. At the end of Nov 2008 dollar peaked and have never breached that level ever since. We will see how it will interact with this area.
There is this theory that dollar will melt up before gold is able to began its ascent. Looking at this chart I would rather speculate that this theory is already priced in but...we will see.


GLD - gold long ETF
This is one bullish looking chart. After initial rise signalled by a 92-96 buy signal GLD entered a correction phase. So far it has developed a nice looking bullish flag and today it generated a 35-39 sell signal that should be indication of a near low.

TLT - treasury bond 20+ ETF
Like the dollar chart this one also has been in a relentless bull rise ever since Nov 2018. Unlike the dollar,  TLT is running into a sure trouble, it is going to generate an inevitable double sell that portends a medium term decline. 


XGD Australia Gold Index
This chart is an illustration that bull market in Australia started 6 months before the USERX signal. For those who are worried about the latest action in USERX price check to see how a buy signal can go sideways for a prolonged time before a real take off. 



Conclusion:
It is clear from the charts that the gold market is at support while SnadP, dollar and bond markets are at resistance. I am 100% invested and will be sitting tight to at least mid November. I have no plans of selling my long term positions any time soon.

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