USERX
USERX needs to be above 8.44 after next 7 trading days in order to confirm bullish nature of the last 16-20 buy signal. That is in sync with the need to start generating next 16-20 and 35-39 signal before it reaches the 92-96 echo. Quick and scary mini crash to 8.16 is not out of the picture yet. If it happens we'd be entering very dangerous zone and the only possible move left, to keep this bull alive, would be immediate and hard 3 months rally to match the initial May-September up leg.
USERX classic TA
If the 92-96 sells it would be devastating from the SKI perspective but it would still make a perfect sense from the traditional TA pov. It would fall exactly on the 200 MAV support around 7.80 and if it happens it might mark the bottom, especially in the form of a v-shaped bottom.
GLD
GLD is in a similar setup as the USERX but it has more padding between its current price and rising 92-96 echo. It looks plain bullish even if the USERX dives down to 8.16.
UUP
Intraday touching of the 2008 top initiated a strong drop into the 16-20 buy and a possible 35-39 sell. I expect a short term bottom will form now and the action around the next 16-20 sell will show us if this is some longer term weakness that will lead to ending this steady bull market in dollar. If the next signal is a 92-96 sell that would be a clear end of the bull market.
TLT
16-20 and 35-39 double sell has produced an immediate drop and, on Friday, a new 16-20 buy has been generated. The price is still in a clear bullish zone and if GLD, TLT and UUP keep their positive correlation from recent months maybe this is a short term bottom for all of them. When is decoupling going to happen we don't know.
SandP 500
The chart of SandP is corroborating a high importance of this juncture. The SandP is in a setup where there is one bullish outcome and the rest is all bearish. Any of the bearish outcomes is highly potent from the point of view of both the SKI indices and the traditional TA. Also, each one of them correlates to similar but opposite setup for USERX. This is how applying SKI on multiple indices and combining it with traditional TA gives a bigger picture of the market forces in place.
XGD Australia
Australian gold index has made a fresh low and the current run pattern is 1 up 7 down. The 16-20 buy executed three days ago and is negative at the present. There is not much space for this index before the 92-96 echo kicks in so it better finds a bottom soon. The Australian index has been giving leading signals since the beginning of this bull and if that continues this could be a sign that there is one more scare coming for the USERX.
Since the rise of Australian gold market started, 6 months before the USERX, the current level is far above the back prices and the bullish nature of the market is intact.
There are no changes in my core positions and I have no intention to do anything about it for now.
Good luck to all.
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