Here is a short breakdown of the poll.
About 63% participants are currently invested.
Of all participants 37% are not invested, 39% are long and 24% are short. So, more than 1/3 is out of the market and the rest is 50% more long then short.
Of all long positions 68% are moderately invested or under invested. Sounds as there is plenty space to increase long positions.
Of all short positions 75% are moderately invested or under invested. There is even more space to increase short positions than long.
42% of all longs are pretty complacent but there are also 16% scared longs who are probably going to be easy on the trigger if the market goes against them.
There is less shorts than longs but they are more complacent 58% (vs 42%) and less scared only 8% (vs 16%).
There is more potential for fueling short side than long. On every 1 short there are 3.1 participants that are not short. On the other side on every 1 long there are only 1.6 participants that are not long.
I created an indicator that I will call the SKI forum temperature. It will work like this: if temperature is 0 it means that potential to go long is equal to potential to go short. If it is positive it will mean that long_potential > short_potential and opposite if it is negative. Today the SKI market temperature stands at -95.28 degrees. It seems that the sentiment is mildly bearish and we should expect sideways to down for the week (except if we are a contrary indicator :)). I will track this number every week (maybe day, what do you think?) and start collecting data so we can have a proper history. Pitty I didn't start it 7 years ago as I intended.
Good luck to everyone,
Branko
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